2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting

[MarkD]

Several years ago, I had a somewhat similar idea, but my idea was to have only 87 US Senators, each elected from a "district" made up of 5 adjacent congressional districts. Using current apportionment data, Upper New England -- ME, NH, VT -- would be one senatorial district; MA-3, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, and MA-8 would be one district; the state of RI combined with MA-2, MA-4, and MA-9 would be one district; the state of CT would be a district unto itself; FL-17, FL-19, FL-26, FL-27, and FL-28 would be one district; FL-20, FL-22, FL-23,FL-24, and FL-25 would be a district; AK, HI, and two coastal CA districts would be one district; the rest of CA would have ten districts; WA would have two districts; OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, OR-5, and OR-6 would be a district; OR-2, and the states of Idaho and Montana would be a district; and so on.

[Gass3268]

District 25: Muskingum & Scioto River Watersheds
Population: 3,423,727 (+3.30%)
States: Ohio (100%)
Largest City: Columbus, Ohio
Cook PVI: R+7
Biden/Trump: 44.83%-53.64%
2016->2020 Swing: D+1.02%
2016->2020 Trend: R+1.34%
Demographics: 77% White, 4% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district started with the Columbus Metropolitan Area, but like the Lake Erie Shoreline district, that only ended up being around 60% of the population needed. The remainder was filled with as much of central and southeast Ohio as necessary. This included adding the Mansfield and Springfield Metropolitan Areas, plus dozens of micropolitan areas.
 
2022 Election: Gary Josephson (D-Columbus, OH) vs Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville, OH)
Explanation: This is a district that I think with the growth around Columbus and the strong Democratic swings in that metropolitan area will eventually become competitive. It’s just going to take another redistricting cycle to lose a lot of the more rural and conservative areas in the outer parts of the district. JIm Jordan lives in this district, but I think he’d rather run the House Judiciary Committee than be a freshman Senator at this time. After serving two terms in both the Ohio House and Ohio Senate, Troy Balderson made the jump up a level. 2022 would have been two terms in the US House, so I think he would have taken the jump here. The general election margin would probably be around ten points.

[Gass3268]

snip

Banks wouldn’t run if the seat was up in 2022. At the time he still had his eye on house leadership and only switched gears IRL after he got shut out.

I think in this scenario he would see this district as being tailor made for him and jump for it instead of of going for House leadership.

Several years ago, I had a somewhat similar idea, but my idea was to have only 87 US Senators, each elected from a "district" made up of 5 adjacent congressional districts. Using current apportionment data, Upper New England -- ME, NH, VT -- would be one senatorial district; MA-3, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, and MA-8 would be one district; the state of RI combined with MA-2, MA-4, and MA-9 would be one district; the state of CT would be a district until itself; FL-17, FL-19, FL-26, FL-27, and FL-28 would be one district; FL-20, FL-22, FL-23,FL-24, and FL-25 would be a district; AK, HI, and two coastal CA districts would be one district; the rest of CA would have ten districts; WA would have two districts; OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, OR-5, and OR-6 would be a district; OR-2, and the states of Idaho and Montana would be a district; and so on.

Interesting idea! I have thought before of taking my project a step further and having each senate district have 5 congressional district, but that was going to end up being a lot of work, lol!

[Gass3268]

District 26: Miami River Valleys
Population: 3,355,875 (+1.25%)
States: Indiana (4.43%), Kentucky (14.06%) and Ohio (81.51%)
Largest City: Cincinnati, Ohio
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.09%-57.32%
2016->2020 Swing: D+3.18%
2016->2020 Trend: D+0.82%
Demographics: 77% White, 4% Hispanic, 14% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: Two thirds of this district's population is based in the Cincinnati Metropolitan Area which was the starting point when drawing here. An additional 24% is located in the Dayton Metropolitan Area. The remaining population came from the largely rural counties that surround these two metro areas.

2022 Election: Matthew Lehman (D-Newport, KY) vs J.D. Vance (R-Cincinnati, OH)
Explanation: Prior to 2022 this would have been Rob Portman’s district, but with him retiring, J.D. also replaces him here in this timeline. Only this time very little money is spent on what would be a very easy race. Even with the decent swings towards the Democrats here recently, its hard to see this district being competitive anytime soon.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

District 23: Lake Erie Shoreline
Population: 3,397,084 (+2.49%)
States: Ohio (100%)
Largest City: Cleveland, Ohio
Cook PVI: D+2
Biden/Trump: 52.49%-46.22%
2016->2020 Swing: Rep +1.49%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep 3.85%
Demographics: 72% White, 5% Hispanic, 18% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

I don't know if this was intentional, but I appreciate how this district's shape resembles the one of the county that anchors it (Cuyahoga). It would do so even better if it included Trumbull but of course I can see that it would be way overpopulated in that case.

[Gass3268]

District 27: Northern Piedmont
Population: 3,237,781 (+2.31%)
States: Virginia (100%)
Largest City: Alexandria, Virginia
Cook PVI: D+13
Biden/Trump: 64.98%-32.99%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +5.88%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +3.52%
Demographics: 51% White, 17% Hispanic, 14% Black, 16% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: Here is the Virginia side of the Washington Metro Area. This district includes all of the Metro’s counties south of the Potomac River, but east of the Shenandoah Valley. This resulted in a district that still needed between 5-10% more in population, which I got by adding the Charlottesville area.

2022 Election: Mark Warner (D-Alexandria, VA) vs Jim Myles (R-Burke, VA)
Explanation: Not long ago this district would be competitive under the right conditions, but those days have passed. Senator Warner lives here and would easily win here without much of a sweat.

[Gass3268]

District 28: Central Piedmont
Population: 3,452,207 (+4.15%)
States: North Carolina (44.14%) and Virginia (55.86%)
Largest City: Greensboro, North Carolina
Cook PVI: R+4
Biden/Trump: 47.99%-50.43%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.95%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.59%
Demographics: 61% White, 8% Hispanic, 26% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: In previous incarcerations of this map series prior to 2020 this region of the country was drawn a bit differently. In prior years the Triad (Greensboro-Winston Salem) region of North Carolina was connected to more of Central North Carolina (Burlington area and south) plus more of Central Virginia. However this time around, due to population growth and shifts, this region had to pick up the Richland Metro Area. This then becomes a Richomond, Lynchburg, and Triad district.

2022 Election: Herb Jones (D-Providence Forge, VA) vs Ted Budd (R-Advance, NC)
Explanation: This seat was competitive in 2020 and quite possibly will be in the future if the current leftward trends continue in this district, particularly in the Richmond Metropolitan Area. However, this area was not as competitive for Democrats in both 2021 in Virginia and in 2022 in North Carolina. Ted Budd beats Mark Walker in the primary here, like he did in real life, and goes on to win relatively easily in the general election. A seat to look out for by the end of the decade.

[Gass3268]

District 29: Research Triangle
Population: 3,178,555 (-4.10%)
States: North Carolina (95.02%) and Virginia (4.98%)
Largest City: Raleigh, North Carolina
Cook PVI: D+6
Biden/Trump: 57.70%-40.67%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.12%
Demographics: 56% White, 12% Hispanic, 27% Black, 6% Asian, 3% Native

Drawing Thought Process: As alluded to in the prior district, before the 2020 Census, I typically would combine the Research Triangle (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel HIll) area with the Richmond Metropolitan Area. The two areas together had the perfect population. However, the very strong growth in the Triangle required me to shed the Richmond Metro from this district. This required me to pick up more in North Carolina including the Burlington and Fayetteville Metropolitan Areas.

2022 Election: Cheri Beasley (D-Raleigh, NC) vs Christine Villaverde (R-Fuquay-Varina, NC)
Explanation: Using a combination of the 2021 Governor’s race in Virginia and the 2022 Senate race in North Carolina, Democrats essentially matched Joe Biden’s margin in this district. Democrats would in all likelihood have a very competitive primary here, but I have Cheri Beasley pulling out the win here. Whoever the Democrat ends up being would have zero issue winning.

[Gass3268]

District 30: Southern Atlantic Coast
Population: 3,216,703 (-2.95%)
States: Georgia (21.67%), North Carolina (32.67%) and South Carolina 45.65%
Largest City: Charleston, South Carolina
Cook PVI: R+9
Biden/Trump: 43.05%-55.48%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.15%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.79%
Demographics: 64% White, 8% Hispanic, 23% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The concept behind this district was to have a distinct that hugged the coastline combining the metropolitan areas of Charleston, Savannah, and Wilmington. In order to fill out the population, additional portions of North Carolina north of Wilingoton and George south of Savannah were added. In the prior decade, Jacksonville was added to this district, but after 2020 this area had to be shed.

2022 Election: Wade Herring (D-Savannah, GA) vs Tim Scott (R-Charleston, SC)
Explanation: As the only incumbent in this district, Tim Scott would get preferential treatment in the Republican Primary and go on winning this district easily in the general election. If the current Democratic swings in these metros continue it’s possible this district could be competitive by the end of the decade or after the next redistricting cycle which would result in the shedding of northern or southern conservative areas, but we will have to wait and see.

[Gass3268]

District 31: Metrolina
Population: 3,169,799 (-4.37%) 
States: North Carolina (83.95%) and South Carolina (16.05%)
Largest City: Charlotte, North Carolina
Cook PVI: R+4
Biden/Trump: 47.76%-50.79%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.30%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.94%
Demographics: 63% White, 11% Hispanic, 24% Black, 5% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district started with the Charlotte Metropolitan Area. This only gave me 80% of the population needed. So in order to fill out the district, I choose to add the Sandhills region of North Carolina and its neighboring areas in South Carolina. As the Charlotte Metro continues to grow, I expect that a large portion of this added area will be shed in redistricting after the 2030 Census.

2022 Election: Charles Graham (D-Lumberton, NC) vs Thom Tillis (R-Huntersville, NC)
Explanation: Competitive on paper, Budd beat Beasley on the North Carolina side by 4 points and both McMaster and Scott won decisively on the South Carolina side. Thom Tillis is the incumbent here and would win solidly in both the primary and general. The relative competitiveness draws a solid Democratic nominee in Charles Graham, but he ends up falling short by about 8 points. All that said, if the current trends continue here, I would expect this district to be one of the most competitive districts in the later point of this decade and would probably flip to Democrats after large parts of the non-Charoltte Metro areas are removed after the 2030 Census.

[Sol]

Is it possible to put the Triangle and Triad together, or does that not quite work?

[Gass3268]

Is it possible to put the Triangle and Triad together, or does that not quite work?

I tired that and the population after combining all those metro areas is just too much.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Small note Beasley is from Fayetteville according to Wikipedia, still lives in the seat tho

[Gass3268]

Small note Beasley is from Fayetteville according to Wikipedia, still lives in the seat tho

I went with what Our Campaigns had and I'm pretty sure they use the address that was provided in their candidacy/residency paperwork. I wouldn't be surprised he she had a residence in both Fayetteville and Raleigh.

[Roll Roons]

Is the DC district the bluest in the country or will it be surpassed by one in the Bay Area?

Similarly, is the Central Appalachia district the reddest or is there a redder district either further out west?

[Gass3268]

Is the DC district the bluest in the country or will it be surpassed by one in the Bay Area?

Similarly, is the Central Appalachia district the reddest or is there a redder district either further out west?

The DC based district is the bluest district in the country. There are actually 3 districts bluer than a Bay area based seat, two of which (Northern NYC and Southern NYC) we've already seen and the other two are in the Chicagoland and Los Angeles. There are 3 districts redder than the Central Appalachia district, two centered in Texas and one in the Mid-South region. Once I'm doing going through these I'll provide my spreadsheet in addition to the map.

[Gass3268]

District 32: Southern Piedmont
Population: 3,217,353 (-2.93%)
States: Georgia (26.27%), North Carolina (25.26%) and South Carolina (48.46%)
Largest City: Athens, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+20
Biden/Trump: 32.00%-66.59%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.07%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.29%
Demographics: 72% White, 9% Hispanic, 15% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district was kind of a left over district that came about after drawing the surrounding districts with the core of it being the Upstate South Carolina. That said it does connect large portions of the southern Appalachian Piedmont. This includes a number of metropolitan areas that lie right before the mountains including Athens, Greenville, Hickory, and Spartansburg.

2022 Election: Pam Genant (D-Valdese, NC) vs Lindsey Graham (R-Seneca, SC)
Explanation: It’s possible that Lidnsey Graham could get primaried here given just how Republican this district is. However, I went against as he has solid backing from Trump and he’s savvy enough to avoid getting knocked off twice in the past. Whoever replaces him once his time in the Senate is up will be much further to the right than he is.

[Gass3268]

District 33: Southeastern Appalachia
Population: 3,363,556 (1.48%)
States: Georgia (4.51%), North Carolina (18.82%), Tennessee (73.91%) and Virginia (2.76)
Largest City: Knoxville, Tennessee
Cook PVI: R+19
Biden/Trump: 32.60%-65.70%
2016->2020 Swing: D+3.42%
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.06%
Demographics: 84% White, 5% Hispanic, 6% Black, 2% Asian, 3% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This was one of the easier districts to draw. It starts with the Grand Division of East Tennessee, which provides the vast majority of the population for this seat. A little more population was added with the addition of the Bristol and Chattanooga Metropolitan Areas that are in Virginia and Georgia respectively. Western North Carolina provided the remainder of the necessary population.

2022 Election: Jasmine Beach-Ferrara (D-Asheville, NC) vs Glen Jaocbs (R-Knoxville, TN)
Explanation: Prior to 2018 both of Tenenssee’s Senators would have resided in this district, but as the power base of the Tennessee Republican Party has shifted to Middle Tenneseee, so has both of their Senators. Glen Jacobs, the Mayor of Knox County, feels like someone who has a desire to eventually move up in the political world and I think he’d have a good base out of the Knoxville area to win the primary. Yes, I know, I made the pro-wrestler Kane a United States Senator.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Oh god Kane is totally the Republican Fetterman ittl

[Gass3268]

Can anyone guess the process/pattern I'm using to order/number the districts?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oh god Kane is totally the Republican Fetterman ittl

I almost want someone to make a timeline about this now.
"Citizen Kane for US Senate"

[Gass3268]

District 34: Bluegrass & Lower Ohio River Valley
Population: 3,363,095 (+1.47%)
States: Indiana (28.34%) and Kentucky (71.66%)
Largest City: Louisville, Kentucky
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.14%-56.88%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.07%
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.71%
Demographics: 79% White, 5% Hispanic, 11% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: At the heart of this district is the Louisville Metropolitan Area. That’s the main reason why this Kentucky based seat also takes in a large chuck of Southern Indiana. The Louisville Metropolitan Area only makes up a little less than 40% of what is needed. So I decided to attach the Lexington Metropolitan Area to add an additional 15%, in addition to the rest of the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. To complete the district, I added all Southern Indiana south of Bloomington and Columbus. This includes all of the Evansville Metropolitan Area on both sides of the river. I then added a few counties on the Kentucky side of the Ohio River for aesthetic purposes.

2022 Election: Ray McCormick (D-Vincennes, IN) vs Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville, KY)
Explanation: This is Mitch McConnell’s seat. Don’t need to say much more than that. It’s possible that in the future, someone like Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear could make this seat competitive for Democrats, but then again successful state level Democrats in the South typically struggle when they try to make the jump to the federal side.

[Gass3268]

District 35: Cumberland River Watershed
Population: 3,169,542 (-4.37%)
States: Kentucky (16.91%) and Tennessee (83.09%)
Largest City: Nashville, Tennessee
Cook PVI: R+14
Biden/Trump: 36.30%-61.71%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.11%
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.74%
Demographics: 75% White, 8% Hispanic, 12% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The districts based in Tennessee were all pretty easy to draw because the Grand Divisions are so well established. This seat takes almost all of Middle Tennessee (unfortunately I had give the next district the Clarksville Metropolitan Area for population reasons). To then fill out the remainder of the necessary population I then went into Southern Kentucky to grab both the Bowling Green Metropolitan Area and the Lake Cumberland area.

2022 Election: Keeda Haynes (D-Goodlettsville, TN) vs Masha Blackburn (R-Brentwood, TN)
Explanation: Three different Republican Senators live in this district (Marsha Blackburn, Bill Hagerty and Rand Paul) and I imagine it would be a battle royal between the three of them. I would give the edge to Blackburn as I think she would do better in the critical Nashville suburbs, especially south of the city given her time in the House representing large portions of this area. Paul would do well in Kentucky, but that makes up such a small portion of this district. Blackburn would have no issue in the general election. 

[Gass3268]

District 36: Mid-South
Population: 3,326,556 (+0.36%)
States: Arkansas (16.14%), Illinois (18.04%), Kentucky (12.76%), Mississippi (8.24%), Missouri (12.73%) and Tennessee (32.09%)
Largest City: Clarksville, Tennessee
Cook PVI: R+25
Biden/Trump: 26.26%-72.04%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +0.01%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +2.35%
Demographics: 79% White, 4% Hispanic, 13% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Navie

Drawing Thought Process: The origins of this district starts in West Tennessee, where it gets the largest plurality of its population. This does not include the City of Memphis however as that is included in a Mississippi River Delta district that will be discussed later. I had to be creative when drawing the rest of this district, because some things were already established by the time I got to this area. First, I decided to add the Jackson Purchase area of Kentucky in addition to the remainder of western part of the state. Culturally similar areas were then added in both Northeastern Arkansas and Southeastern Missouri. I then figured Northeastern Mississippi would fit here. I then had the predicament of finding an additional 15-20% of the population. The only logical place to go here was the more culturally southern region of Little Egypt, Illinois. Finally, at the end I was still short when it came to population, so I had to take Clarksville, Tennessee from the prior district. While this district looks odd, I feel like all put together they have a decent community of interest.

2022 Election: Monte Hodges (D-Blytheville, AR)  vs David Kustoff (R-Germantown, TN)
Explanation: Given just how much of the population of this district resides in West Tennessee, I think the Senator from this district will come from there as well. Rep. Kustoff seems like the most likely choice. I have to imagine the primary could be pretty active with a number of other larger names jumping. Like I could see Mary Miller jumping into this race and making some bigoted remark about Kustoff’s faith. The Republican wins the general in a cakewalk here.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Can you elaborate on why you called it Mid South? It’s an ok name but I’m not sure what else to call it. A district containing Illinois being called South just feels wrong in my bones lol

Maybe Confluence, from the Mississippi and Ohio River?