2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #50 on: February 14, 2023, 09:08:44 PM »



District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: I’m sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #51 on: February 14, 2023, 09:54:51 PM »



District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: I’m sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.

I'll use it.
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leecannon
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« Reply #52 on: February 15, 2023, 12:44:59 AM »



District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: I’m sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.



Dude if you don’t like how he’s doing it make your own thread
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Solid4096
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« Reply #53 on: February 15, 2023, 06:52:24 AM »

There are definitely aspects of how the seats were drawn that I dislike, but overall, this is a really interesting project.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #54 on: February 15, 2023, 10:33:47 AM »



District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: I’m sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.



Dude if you don’t like how he’s doing it make your own thread

I’m just sharing my opinions.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #55 on: February 15, 2023, 12:54:56 PM »

snip

District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: I’m sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.



Dude if you don’t like how he’s doing it make your own thread

I’m just sharing my opinions.

No worries, I like the back and forth. All I ask is that we snip out the pictures in quotes so that it doesn't clutter the thread.

Hope to have more districts later today, DRA was acting weird for me last night so I wasn't able to take screenshots.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #56 on: February 15, 2023, 01:27:24 PM »

snip

District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: I’m sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.


Dude if you don’t like how he’s doing it make your own thread

I’m just sharing my opinions.

No worries, I like the back and forth. All I ask is that we snip out the pictures in quotes so that it doesn't clutter the thread.

Hope to have more districts later today, DRA was acting weird for me last night so I wasn't able to take screenshots.
DRA is being weird for me as well.
Stats aren't working.
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leecannon
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« Reply #57 on: February 15, 2023, 02:19:13 PM »

Yea I was trying this on my own for funsies and DRA was having issues, especially when I had multiple instances of it running
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bagelman
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« Reply #58 on: February 20, 2023, 04:02:20 AM »

Yea I was trying this on my own for funsies and DRA was having issues, especially when I had multiple instances of it running

I've never even tried of running multiple instances of DRA, that may have lead me to be dissatisfied with the boundaries of the western districts when I also tried this idea for fun a while back.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #59 on: February 20, 2023, 04:17:43 PM »

I got the map to work! New updates coming this evening!
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kwabbit
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« Reply #60 on: February 20, 2023, 04:41:08 PM »

Yea I was trying this on my own for funsies and DRA was having issues, especially when I had multiple instances of it running

I've never even tried of running multiple instances of DRA, that may have lead me to be dissatisfied with the boundaries of the western districts when I also tried this idea for fun a while back.

Is it even possible for California to run well? I don’t know if the problem is my internet or my computer but on every device I’ve tried California is laggy enough to make it not worth it.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #61 on: February 20, 2023, 05:16:31 PM »

Yea I was trying this on my own for funsies and DRA was having issues, especially when I had multiple instances of it running

I've never even tried of running multiple instances of DRA, that may have lead me to be dissatisfied with the boundaries of the western districts when I also tried this idea for fun a while back.

Is it even possible for California to run well? I don’t know if the problem is my internet or my computer but on every device I’ve tried California is laggy enough to make it not worth it.
I was able to run California just this morning. But this was just for a new map. I dunno about a pre-loaded, completed map.
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leecannon
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« Reply #62 on: February 20, 2023, 05:25:52 PM »

Yea I was trying this on my own for funsies and DRA was having issues, especially when I had multiple instances of it running

I've never even tried of running multiple instances of DRA, that may have lead me to be dissatisfied with the boundaries of the western districts when I also tried this idea for fun a while back.

Is it even possible for California to run well? I don’t know if the problem is my internet or my computer but on every device I’ve tried California is laggy enough to make it not worth it.

I can barely chug it out on my work laptop but on my home cpu it works fine enough
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kwabbit
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« Reply #63 on: February 20, 2023, 05:32:30 PM »

Yea I was trying this on my own for funsies and DRA was having issues, especially when I had multiple instances of it running

I've never even tried of running multiple instances of DRA, that may have lead me to be dissatisfied with the boundaries of the western districts when I also tried this idea for fun a while back.

Is it even possible for California to run well? I don’t know if the problem is my internet or my computer but on every device I’ve tried California is laggy enough to make it not worth it.

I can barely chug it out on my work laptop but on my home cpu it works fine enough
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Gass3268
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« Reply #64 on: February 20, 2023, 11:08:43 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2023, 11:24:11 PM by Gass3268 »



District 18: Upper Ohio River Valley
Population: 3,447,079 (4.00%)
States: Ohio (20.85%), Pennsylvania (75.53%) and West Virginia (3.62%)
Largest City: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+6
Biden/Trump: 44.99%-53.82%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.04%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.32%
Demographics: 83% White, 2% Hispanic, 10% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Pittsburgh Metropolitan Area is the core of this district, but that alone only made up a little over 2/3rds of what was needed. To fill it out I decided to add the Mahoning Valley, plus everything in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia south of that down to just below the Mason-Dixon line. This ended up having a very strong community of interest of many different steel mill communities.

2022 Election: John Fetterman (D-Braddock, PA) vs David McCormick (R-Pittsburgh, PA)
Explanation: If you average out the Democratic Senate performances in this district from 2022 (used 2020 for West Virginia), the Republicans only win by a few thousand votes. Fetterman had a very impressive performance in the Pennsylvania portion, winning it by ~4 points. However, the strong Republican results in Ohio and West Virginia would just be too much for him to overcome. Funny enough, if this was before 2016 I would have been called out for gerrymandering in favor of Democrats by adding the Mahoning Valley to a Pittsburgh based district. Not any more!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #65 on: February 20, 2023, 11:45:23 PM »
« Edited: February 22, 2023, 08:38:16 PM by Gass3268 »



District 19: Lower Chesapeake Bay
Population: 3,365,800 (+1.55)
States: Delaware (12.46%), Maryland (8.44%), North Carolina (21.90%) and Virginia (57.21%)
Largest City: Virginia Beach, VA
Cook PVI: D+0
Biden/Trump: 51.90%-46.37%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.27%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.91%
Demographics: 55% White, 7% Hispanic, 32% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The idea of this district was to put together many distinct regions along the Eastern Seaboard that did not have enough population to have its own district. Centered around the Hampton Roads/Virginia Beach Metropolitan area in Virginia, this district also combines that with a vast majority of the Delvamar peninsula, the Virginia Chesapeake peninsulas, and most of the inner/outer banks of North Carolina.

2022 Election: Elaine Luria (D-Virginia Beach, VA) vs Gregory Murphy (R-Greenville. NC)
Explanation: Democrats have not done well in this region since 2020. Northeast North Carolina swung hard against Beasley in her Senate race and Rep. Luria lost her reelection campaign in the very swingy Virginia Beach based VA-02. I think Luria decides to run here as it’s a chance to move up and the PVI of the district is actually a bit more Democratic than her house seat was. Republicans decide to go with Rep. Greg Murphy from NC-03, which needs up biting them in the butt after he tweeted that "No one forces anyone to have sex." Abortion then became the top issue in the race and Luria was able to narrowly pull out a win that outpaced the fundamentals and down ballot races.
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« Reply #66 on: February 21, 2023, 09:52:28 AM »



District 20: Upper Chesapeake Bay
Population: 3,173,993 (-4.24%)
States: Maryland (100%)
Largest City: Baltimore, Maryland
Cook PVI: D+8
Biden/Trump: 59.62%-37.71%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +8.17%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +5.81%
Demographics: 55% White, 7% Hispanic, 29% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district is centered around the Baltimore Metropolitan Area. In order to get the remaining necessary population, it also includes the remainder of Maryland west of the Chesapeake Bay that is not in the Washington Metropolitan Area and Eastern Shore counties that are north of Queen Anne’s County.

2022 Election: John Sarbanes (D-Towson, MD) vs Chris Chaffee (R-Prince Fredrick, MD)
Explanation: It appears that Senator Ben, who would be the incumbent in this district, is leaning towards retirement. Therefore I went with Rep. who has always appeared to have had his eye set on running for some form of statewide office at some point. He would end up winning this election easily.
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« Reply #67 on: February 21, 2023, 10:11:26 AM »



District 21: Potomac River Valley
Population: 3,157,141 (-4.75%)
States: District of Columbia (21.84%) and Maryland (78.16%)
Largest City: Washington, DC
Cook PVI: D+32
Biden/Trump: 81.66%-16.00%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.02%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.66%
Demographics: 33% White, 17% Hispanic, 40% Black, 10% Asian, 2% Native
VRA Demographics: 36% White, 15% Hispanic, 39% Black, 10% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: As part of a deal when this new process was implemented, the District of Columbia would be included, but the number of Senate seats would remain as if there were only 50 states. When drawing districts it ended up making sense to split the Washington Metropolitan Area down the middle based on the Potomac River, with this being the Maryland side.

2022 Election: Chris Van Hollen (D-Kensington, MD) vs Uncontested
Explanation: Senator Van Hollen is the incumbent and would probably get preferred treatment here. Whenever he decides to retire I could definitely see this as a palace where an African American candidate would win. This is also the only seat in the country that the Republicans decided to leave uncontested.
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« Reply #68 on: February 21, 2023, 11:00:34 AM »



District 22: Central Appalachia
Population: 3,173,174 (-4.26%)
States: Kentucky (20.90%), Ohio (1.84%), Virginia (40.62%) and West Virginia (36.64%)
Largest City: Roanoke, Virginia
Cook PVI: R+23
Biden/Trump: 29.10%-69.31%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.81%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.55%
Demographics: 89% White, 3% Hispanic, 5% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Asian

Drawing Thought Process: The objective with this district was to unite the major coal mining areas of the central Appalachian Mountains. This included Eastern Kentucky, Western Virginia, and Southern West Virginia. This was then filled out by including the Shenandoah Valley. Lawrence County, Ohio was added in order to complete the Huntington–Ashland Metropolitan Area.

2022 Election: Paula Jean Swearengin (D-Sophia, WV) vs Shelley Moore Capito (R-Charleston, WV)
Explanation: Senator Capito is the incumbent here and would probably be the Republican nominee, but you can never rule out a potential successful primary from someone to her right when you have a district this Republican. Paula Jean Swearengin gives it another go because why not, it seems like something she would do. Funny enough, before President Obama was elected in 2008, this district would probably be a very safe seat for Democrats with Robert Byrd winning with massive margins.
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« Reply #69 on: February 21, 2023, 05:05:00 PM »



District 19: Lower Chesapeake Bay
Population: 3,365,800 (+1.55)
States: Delaware (12.46%), Maryland (8.44%), North Carolina (21.90%) and Virginia (57.21%)
Largest City: Virginia Beach, VA
Cook PVI: D+0
Biden/Trump: 51.90%-46.37%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.27%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.91%
Demographics: 55% White, 7% Hispanic, 32% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The idea of this district was to put together many distinct regions along the Eastern Seaboard that did not have enough population to have its own district. Centered around the Hampton Roads/Virginia Beach Metropolitan area in Virginia, this district also combines that with a vast majority of the Delvamar peninsula, the Virginia Chesapeake peninsulas, and most of the inner/outer banks of North Carolina.

2022 Election: Elaine Luria (D-Virginia Beach, VA) vs Gregory Murphy (R-Greenville. NC)
Explanation: Democrats have not done well in this region since 2020. Northeast North Carolina swung hard against Beasley in her Senate race and Rep. Luria lost her reelection campaign in the very swingy Virginia Beach based VA-02. Even though Biden won here by ~5.5, I think the Republican ends up winning her. Speaking of Luria, I think she decides to run here as it’s a chance to move up and the PVI of the district is actually a bit more Democratic than her house seat was. Republicans decide to go with Rep. Greg Murphy from NC-03.

Your call, but I really think Murphy would’ve been the Todd Akin of 2022 ITL.  In June 2022, he had this to say about exceptions for abortion in cases of rape: “Nobody forces anybody to have sex.”  He literally straight up denied the existence of rape.  It didn’t matter in NC-3, but in this district against a serious opponent…
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« Reply #70 on: February 21, 2023, 05:55:07 PM »

With regard to the Upper Chesapeake and Potomac valley is it possible to rearrange them to create a majority black seat?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #71 on: February 22, 2023, 09:37:51 AM »


Your call, but I really think Murphy would’ve been the Todd Akin of 2022 ITL.  In June 2022, he had this to say about exceptions for abortion in cases of rape: “Nobody forces anybody to have sex.”  He literally straight up denied the existence of rape.  It didn’t matter in NC-3, but in this district against a serious opponent…

Ooooo, I forgot about that. I'll be making some edits here.

With regard to the Upper Chesapeake and Potomac valley is it possible to rearrange them to create a majority black seat?

Did a very quick test and yes I think it would be possible by combining PG County/Charles County to Baltimore city. I typically look at these almost exclusively by metro area, I sometimes forget to see if I can combine things. I going to move move forward for now, but I'll come back to this at the end and probably make the change.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #72 on: February 23, 2023, 10:24:10 AM »
« Edited: February 23, 2023, 11:56:43 AM by Gass3268 »



District 23: Lake Erie Shoreline
Population: 3,397,084 (+2.49%)
States: Ohio (100%)
Largest City: Cleveland, Ohio
Cook PVI: D+2
Biden/Trump: 52.49%-46.22%
2016->2020 Swing: Rep +1.49%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep 3.85%
Demographics: 72% White, 5% Hispanic, 18% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The core of this district is the Cleveland Metropolitan Area and the old Western Reserve area of Ohio. This only makes up about 60% of the population needed for a district, so I also added surrounding metropolitan and micropolitan areas. This included Ashtabula, Akron, Canton, Norwalk, Sandusky, and Wooster.

2022 Election: Sherrod Brown (D-Avon, OH) vs Matthew Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls, OH)
Explanation: While this district has been drifting to the right over the past two cycles, it is still tailor made for Senator Brown. He received 60% of the vote here in his 2018 re-election campaign against Renacci in 2018 and Tim Ryan even did a point and a half better in 2022 than Biden did. Jim Renacci gives it another go, but ends up losing to Matt Dolan in the primary. Brown wins the general without much a sweat, but this is a seat to watch by the end of the decade.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #73 on: February 23, 2023, 10:45:04 AM »
« Edited: February 24, 2023, 11:57:17 PM by Gass3268 »



District 24: Maumee & St. Joseph River Watersheds
Population: 3,467,640 (+4.62%)
States: Indiana (48.73%), Michigan (8.99%) and Ohio (42.28%)
Largest City: Toledo, Ohio
Cook PVI: R+15
Biden/Trump: 36.79%-61.40%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +0.50%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.85%
Demographics: 79% White, 7% Hispanic, 9% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district stretches from the Michiana region along Lake Michigan all the way over to the western tip of Lake Erie. It combines the metropolitan areas of Fort Wayne, South Bend, Toledo, and dozens of other metro/micropolitan areas. The end result is a very rural, yet industrial influenced district with a large Amish population in addition to a large number of German Catholics.

2022 Election: Craig Swartz (D-Upper Sanduskty, OH) vs Jim Banks (R-Columbia City, IN)
Explanation: Unsurprisingly, this district is incredibly conservative and winning the Republican primary is tantamount to winning the general election. Jim Banks, who is running for the Senate in Indiana, is from this district. He would be the clear favorite in a Republica primary and would cruise through the general election. Craig Swartz, who likes to run campaigns he has to know he can’t win, decides to be the sacrificial lamb here.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #74 on: February 23, 2023, 01:52:32 PM »



District 24: Maumee & St. Joseph River Watersheds
Population: 3,467,640 (+4.62%)
States: Indiana (48.73%), Michigan (8.99%) and Ohio (42.28%)
Largest City: Toledo, Ohio
Cook PVI: R+15
Biden/Trump: 36.79%-61.40%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +0.50
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.85
Demographics: 79% White, 7% Hispanic, 9% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district stretches from the Michiana region along Lake Michigan all the way over to the western tip of Lake Erie. It combines the metropolitan areas of Fort Wayne, South Bend, Toledo, and dozens of other metro/micropolitan areas. The end result is a very rural, yet industrial influenced district with a large Amish population in addition to a large number of German Catholics.

2022 Election: Craig Swartz (D-Upper Sanduskty, OH) vs Jim Banks (R-Columbia City, IN)
Explanation: Unsurprisingly, this district is incredibly conservative and winning the Republican primary is tantamount to winning the general election. Jim Banks, who is running for the Senate in Indiana, is from this district. He would be the clear favorite in a Republica primary and would cruise through the general election. Craig Swartz, who likes to run campaigns he has to know he can’t win, decides to be the sacrificial lamb here.

Banks wouldn’t run if the seat was up in 2022. At the time he still had his eye on house leadership and only switched gears IRL after he got shut out.
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