2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting
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Gass3268
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« Reply #25 on: February 11, 2023, 07:53:25 PM »

2020 Biden/Trump results:
District 1: Northeastern New England - 54.32%-43.41%
District 2: Greater Boston - 71.37%-26.52%
District 3: Southeastern New England - 59.05%-38.72%
District 4: Lower Connecticut River Valley - 59.39%-38.76%
District 5: Adirondacks & Lake Champlain - 53.70%-43.85%
District 6: Lower Hudson River Valley - 59.30%-39.32%
District 7: Long Island - 52.34%-46.31%
District 8: Southern New York City - 80.09%-19.04%
District 9: Northern New York City - 79.15%-19.83%
District 10: Central New York City - 73.71%-22.61%
District 11: Jersey Shore - 50.91%-47.77%
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: February 11, 2023, 08:43:05 PM »



District 12: Lake Ontario Shoreline
Population: 3,212,608 (-3.07%)
States: New York (100%)
Largest City: Buffalo, New York
Cook PVI: D+2
Biden/Trump: 53.71%-44.08%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +6.38%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +4.02%
Demographics: 75% White, 6% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: Basic idea here was to combine the Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse Metropolitan Areas together into one district. This includes some of the counties that are in between these metro areas plus Ithaca.

2022 Election: Mark Poloncarz (D-Buffalo) vs Carl Paladino (R-Buffalo)
Explanation: Was difficult to come up with potential nominees here as there are no incumbent Senators here and almost all of the Representatives are backbenchers for both parties. I decided to go with Poloncarz for the Democrats as he’s been the Erie County executive for over a decade, which is quite long for a position that is typically held by Republicans. Instead of running for NY-23, Paladino takes his crack for the Senate here. He got a lot of MAGA support in that primary and I imagine he’d do so here, which would probably give him the edge. The 2022 average here was 1.5% Democratic win, so I imagine Poloncarz would be able to pull out a narrow win against someone as controversial as Paladino.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #27 on: February 11, 2023, 08:48:22 PM »



I’d think Kean runs for house again, he’d probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.

Who do you think would run in this Senate seat?

I honestly don’t know. It wouldn’t be Chris Smith because he seems content in his safe house seat. Ciattarelli seems like he’s eyeing governor again in 2025. Guadagno left the GOP a year or two ago. Malliotakis may consider it because of the Hochulmander, and it’s probably too late for her to drop back down after it’s overturned in April. But she’ll have a hard time winning outside of NJ.

I imagine the nominee will be someone from Monmouth or Ocean. They’d have a big advantage in any primary because Republican voters are mostly packed there.  Maybe Tom MacArthur would make his comeback here?

Malliotakis is a possibility, but like you said there is so much New Jersey here for her to have to compete in. Tom MacArthur is a solid choice. I might go back and change this. Let me think about it.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #28 on: February 11, 2023, 08:56:24 PM »



I’d think Kean runs for house again, he’d probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.

Who do you think would run in this Senate seat?

I honestly don’t know. It wouldn’t be Chris Smith because he seems content in his safe house seat. Ciattarelli seems like he’s eyeing governor again in 2025. Guadagno left the GOP a year or two ago. Malliotakis may consider it because of the Hochulmander, and it’s probably too late for her to drop back down after it’s overturned in April. But she’ll have a hard time winning outside of NJ.

I imagine the nominee will be someone from Monmouth or Ocean. They’d have a big advantage in any primary because Republican voters are mostly packed there.  Maybe Tom MacArthur would make his comeback here?

Malliotakis is a possibility, but like you said there is so much New Jersey here for her to have to compete in. Tom MacArthur is a solid choice. I might go back and change this. Let me think about it.

After seeing the results it seems Biden indeed won that senate seat by slightly less than NJ-07. Maybe Kean does go for the seat after all, though Malinowski’s probably re-elected if he does so.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #29 on: February 12, 2023, 04:13:56 PM »



District 13: Northern Appalachia
Population: 3,154,719 (-4.82%)
States: Maryland (7.98%), New York (14.16%), Pennsylvania (61.81%) and West Virginia (16.05%)
Largest City: Eire, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+19
Biden/Trump: 33.03%-65.38%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.87
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.49
Demographics: 87% White, 3% Hispanic, 5% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The goal when drawing this district was to include as much of the Appalachian Mountains area in the northeast of the United States as possible. This includes the Southern Tier of New York, all of Central and Southern Pennsylvania not in the Pittsburgh Metropolitan Area or the immediate areas, and Western Maryland. This still resulted in needing about 16% more in population that I took from Northern West Virginia, including the panhandle. Preferably this would be in the to be discussed Central Appalachia district, but it was needed here.

2022 Election: Michael Molesevich (Lewisburg, PA) vs Alex Mooney (Charles Town, WV)
Explanation: This was the district that Alex Mooney was born to run in! Western Maryland and Northern West Virginia are both of his bases. Maybe someone like Glenn Thompson from Centre County, Pennsylvania would consider a run because he represents a massive portion of this district in Central Pennsylvania. However nothing screams to me that he has any desire to move up the same way Mooney does. Senator Joe Manchin lives in this district in Fairmont, West Virginia, but I see him retiring rather than having to fight what would be a certain losing campaign in a lot of new territory.
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« Reply #30 on: February 12, 2023, 07:12:54 PM »

Is it possible to chip away population north of the Pittsburgh metro in cyan and trade it for the Mon Valley?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: February 12, 2023, 08:24:53 PM »

Is it possible to chip away population north of the Pittsburgh metro in cyan and trade it for the Mon Valley?

I'm not sure that would work as it would eat into the Mahoning Valley area that works as an attachment to the Pittsburg Metro.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #32 on: February 13, 2023, 05:36:00 AM »

Excellent work! This is a very fascinating idea that you're covering pretty well. I was going to ask if you could put Biden vs Trump numbers in all of your posts but I see the omission has already been rectified, thank you.

I hope we'll get a full map of the United States where we can visualize all 100 districts at once at the end (on this point, I wonder what will happen of Alaska and Hawaii).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #33 on: February 13, 2023, 12:45:31 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2023, 10:04:38 AM by Gass3268 »



District 14: Lehigh Valley & Skyland
Population: 3,417,415 (+3.11%)
States: New Jersey (71.35%) and Pennsylvania (28.65%)
Largest City: Paterson, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+3
Biden/Trump: 54.62%-44.12%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.07
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.71
Demographics: 60% White, 21% Hispanic, 10% Black, 9% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The core of this district is centered around the last piece of the New York City Metropolitan Area, largely in New Jersey with a tiny part in Pennsylvania. This still left about a quarter of the district that needed to be filled. Thankfully the population of the Lehigh Valley Metropolitan Area was exactly the number I was looking for.

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. With Josh Gottheimer choosing to run for Governor in 2025 instead of here, Mikie Sherrill ends up being the Democratic nominee. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Gottheimer to pull out a solid win.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #34 on: February 13, 2023, 01:31:49 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2023, 11:32:10 PM by Gass3268 »



District 15: Delaware Valley
Population: 3,469,722 (+4.68%)
States: Delaware (16.45%), New Jersey (49.52%) and Pennsylvania 34.04%
Largest City: Cherry Hill Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+5
Biden/Trump: 56.99%-41.74%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.38
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.02
Demographics: 67% White, 11% Hispanic, 10% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The explanation for this district will make more sense once I discuss the next district, but in short, the goal here was to have a district that includes all of the outer areas of the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area. I also included the counties in South Jersey that are not in the Philly Metro, but would have no other place to go.

2022 Election: Christopher Coons (D-Wilmington, DE) vs Robert Healey, Jr. (R-Moorestown, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Joe Biden’s district had this system been in place during his time in the Senate. Even though Delaware only makes up a little over 15% of this district, I would expect there would be incumbent deference and one of either Tom Carper or Chris Coons would end up getting the nomination. With retirement rumors for Carper, he ends up giving way and endorsing Coons. Would not expect a current incumbent Republican Representative running here, so I went with Rep. Andy Kim's 2022 NJ-3 challenger. Governor Murphy narrowly lost the New Jersey portion of this in 2021, but Democrats did very well in the Delaware and Pennsylvania portions in 2022, so this would not end up being that close.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #35 on: February 13, 2023, 02:09:31 PM »



District 14: Lehigh Valley & Skyland
Population: 3,417,415 (+3.11%)
States: New Jersey (71.35%) and Pennsylvania (28.65%)
Largest City: Paterson, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+3
Biden/Trump: 54.62%-44.12%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.07
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.71
Demographics: 60% White, 21% Hispanic, 10% Black, 9% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The core of this district is centered around the last piece of the New York City Metropolitan Area, largely in New Jersey with a tiny part in Pennsylvania. This still left about a quarter of the district that needed to be filled. Thankfully the population of the Lehigh Valley Metropolitan Area was exactly the number I was looking for.

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs William Prempeh (R-Paterson, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. I have Mikie Sherrill choosing to run here after beating Josh Gottheimer in the Democratic primary after getting the pivotal endorsement of Susan WIld in the Lehigh Valley. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid high single digit win.

I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.



District 15: Delaware Valley
Population: 3,469,722 (+4.68%)
States: Delaware (16.45%), New Jersey (49.52%) and Pennsylvania 34.04%
Largest City: Cherry Hill Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+5
Biden/Trump: 56.99%-41.74%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.38
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.02
Demographics: 67% White, 11% Hispanic, 10% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The explanation for this district will make more sense once I discuss the next district, but in short, the goal here was to have a district that includes all of the outer areas of the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area. I also included the counties in South Jersey that are not in the Philly Metro, but would have no other place to go.

2022 Election: Thomas Carper (D-Wilmington, DE) vs Jefferson Van Drew (R-Dennis Township, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Joe Biden’s district had this system been in place during his time in the Senate. Even though Delaware only makes up a little over 15% of this district, I would expect there would be incumbent deference and one of either Tom Carper or Chris Coons would end up getting the nomination. I went with Carper due to his seniority. On the Republican side I went with Rep. Van Drew as I could see Republicans wanting someone they could sell as a former Democrat. Governor Murphy narrowly lost the New Jersey portion of this in 2021, but Democrats did very well in the Delaware and Pennsylvania portions in 2022, so this would not end up being that close.

Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #36 on: February 13, 2023, 03:20:42 PM »


I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.


Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

All of these make sense, I'll make some edits.
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« Reply #37 on: February 13, 2023, 03:59:24 PM »

Are you assuming senators are elected every two years? Or is some other system in place?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #38 on: February 13, 2023, 04:13:07 PM »

Are you assuming senators are elected every two years? Or is some other system in place?

To make it easier on myself, in this storyline the decision to move to this process occurred sometime in the 2010's, with the intention of the the map drawing process taking place between the Census in 2020 and the first set of elections in 2022 for all 100 seats. The order in which the seats are numbered are important because District #1 will at random be assigned a class between (1, 2 or 3). The next seat will get the next number in order or will back to class 1. For example if District #1 got class 3, District #2 would get class 1. This is then repeated for all 100 seats. Class 1 will be up again in 2024, class 2 in 2026, and class 3 in 2028. Keeping the 6 year terms.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #39 on: February 13, 2023, 11:42:47 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2023, 08:51:00 PM by Gass3268 »



District 16: Greater Philadelphia
Population: 3,195,553 (-3.59%)
States: New Jersey (4.96%) and Pennsylvania (95.04%)
Largest City: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: D+21
Biden/Trump: 71.50%-27.67%
2016->2020 Swing: Rep +0.54
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +2.90%
Demographics: 49% White, 12% Hispanic, 30% Black, 9% Asian, 1% Native
VRA Demographics: 53% White, 10% Hispanic, 28% Black, 8% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The primary objective for this district was to create a core Philadelphia based district, with the secondary objective to try to include as much of Philadelphia’s minority population as possible. Philadelphia County and Delaware County made obvious sense, plus it felt right to add Montgomery County. This left us with about 5% more population to fill it out, so I decided to grab the more diverse municipalities from the New Jersey side of the Delaware River, particularly Camden.

2022 Election: Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia, PA) vs Michael Harvey (R-Philadelphia, PA)
Explanation: This feels like Rep. Brendan Boyle’s seat if he wants it. He currently represents about half of the City of Philadelphia and he previously represented a majority of Montgomery County in the old PA-13. This ends up being close to 50% of the district and he feels like he’d be ambitious enough to go for it.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #40 on: February 14, 2023, 12:40:58 AM »

Lehigh Valley with close-in NYC suburbs?  That just feels too weird.  Give Scranton to the maroon district instead of West Virginia (better fit with the Southern Tier), put the Lehigh Valley in with your red district (definitely fits better with Lancaster/York than Scranton does, and it's no longer a rump to a NY-centric district), run the green district into central Jersey, and have your blue district take Atlantic City, Cape May, and some of Delmarva. 
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #41 on: February 14, 2023, 07:47:08 AM »
« Edited: February 14, 2023, 07:52:48 AM by The Address That Must Not be Named »



District 14: Lehigh Valley & Skyland
Population: 3,417,415 (+3.11%)
States: New Jersey (71.35%) and Pennsylvania (28.65%)
Largest City: Paterson, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+3
Biden/Trump: 54.62%-44.12%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.07
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.71
Demographics: 60% White, 21% Hispanic, 10% Black, 9% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The core of this district is centered around the last piece of the New York City Metropolitan Area, largely in New Jersey with a tiny part in Pennsylvania. This still left about a quarter of the district that needed to be filled. Thankfully the population of the Lehigh Valley Metropolitan Area was exactly the number I was looking for.

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs William Prempeh (R-Paterson, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. I have Mikie Sherrill choosing to run here after beating Josh Gottheimer in the Democratic primary after getting the pivotal endorsement of Susan WIld in the Lehigh Valley. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid high single digit win.

I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.



District 15: Delaware Valley
Population: 3,469,722 (+4.68%)
States: Delaware (16.45%), New Jersey (49.52%) and Pennsylvania 34.04%
Largest City: Cherry Hill Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+5
Biden/Trump: 56.99%-41.74%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.38
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.02
Demographics: 67% White, 11% Hispanic, 10% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The explanation for this district will make more sense once I discuss the next district, but in short, the goal here was to have a district that includes all of the outer areas of the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area. I also included the counties in South Jersey that are not in the Philly Metro, but would have no other place to go.

2022 Election: Thomas Carper (D-Wilmington, DE) vs Jefferson Van Drew (R-Dennis Township, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Joe Biden’s district had this system been in place during his time in the Senate. Even though Delaware only makes up a little over 15% of this district, I would expect there would be incumbent deference and one of either Tom Carper or Chris Coons would end up getting the nomination. I went with Carper due to his seniority. On the Republican side I went with Rep. Van Drew as I could see Republicans wanting someone they could sell as a former Democrat. Governor Murphy narrowly lost the New Jersey portion of this in 2021, but Democrats did very well in the Delaware and Pennsylvania portions in 2022, so this would not end up being that close.

Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  
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« Reply #42 on: February 14, 2023, 08:52:43 AM »


I’d think Kean runs for house again, he’d probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.

Who do you think would run in this Senate seat?

I honestly don’t know. It wouldn’t be Chris Smith because he seems content in his safe house seat. Ciattarelli seems like he’s eyeing governor again in 2025. Guadagno left the GOP a year or two ago. Malliotakis may consider it because of the Hochulmander, and it’s probably too late for her to drop back down after it’s overturned in April. But she’ll have a hard time winning outside of NJ.

I imagine the nominee will be someone from Monmouth or Ocean. They’d have a big advantage in any primary because Republican voters are mostly packed there.  Maybe Tom MacArthur would make his comeback here?

The other obvious option is Mehmet Oz. He doesn't live in the part of New Jersey covered by this district, but given a competitive district here, it wouldn't be as far to carpetbag as Pennsylvania was.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #43 on: February 14, 2023, 09:48:49 AM »

Lehigh Valley with close-in NYC suburbs?  That just feels too weird.  Give Scranton to the maroon district instead of West Virginia (better fit with the Southern Tier), put the Lehigh Valley in with your red district (definitely fits better with Lancaster/York than Scranton does, and it's no longer a rump to a NY-centric district), run the green district into central Jersey, and have your blue district take Atlantic City, Cape May, and some of Delmarva. 

I have to disagree with you here. In recent years there has been a large influx of folks from New Jersey and New York moving to the Lehigh Valley for cheaper housing, increasing the ties between the two regions. You can see evidence of this with Amtrak developing a line between Allentown and New York City, in addition to studies showing that Yankees fans outnumbering Phillies fans in a large portion of the Lehigh Valley Metro Area. Lastly, with Monroe County and Wayne County Pennsylvania already in the Combined New York Metropolitan Area, adding the Lehigh Valley really helps make this district more aesthetically pleasing.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #44 on: February 14, 2023, 10:07:01 AM »


I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.


Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  

I went with Mr. X's take on this. Gottheimer runs for Governor in 2025 and Sherrill runs for the Sente here.


I’d think Kean runs for house again, he’d probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.

Who do you think would run in this Senate seat?

I honestly don’t know. It wouldn’t be Chris Smith because he seems content in his safe house seat. Ciattarelli seems like he’s eyeing governor again in 2025. Guadagno left the GOP a year or two ago. Malliotakis may consider it because of the Hochulmander, and it’s probably too late for her to drop back down after it’s overturned in April. But she’ll have a hard time winning outside of NJ.

I imagine the nominee will be someone from Monmouth or Ocean. They’d have a big advantage in any primary because Republican voters are mostly packed there.  Maybe Tom MacArthur would make his comeback here?

The other obvious option is Mehmet Oz. He doesn't live in the part of New Jersey covered by this district, but given a competitive district here, it wouldn't be as far to carpetbag as Pennsylvania was.

Yeah, I have Dr. Oz only moving a couple municipalities up the Hudson River to Englewood Cliffs.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #45 on: February 14, 2023, 11:54:51 AM »
« Edited: February 14, 2023, 01:18:33 PM by Tekken_Guy »


I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.


Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  

I went with Mr. X's take on this. Gottheimer runs for Governor in 2025 and Sherrill runs for the Sente here.

Sherrill has had her eyes on the governorship for the past couple of years. A Gottheimer bid was not even on the radar until about a month or two ago and wasn't when this Senate race was going into effect. There's a logical reason Gottheimer would be more ilkely to run for the seat than Sherrill. I didn't even know he was even in consideration for the governorship until today.

Besides, this would be my senate seat. It would have been really nice if you went my way on this and picked Gottheimer.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #46 on: February 14, 2023, 01:41:09 PM »


I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.


Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  

I went with Mr. X's take on this. Gottheimer runs for Governor in 2025 and Sherrill runs for the Sente here.

Sherrill has had her eyes on the governorship for the past couple of years. A Gottheimer bid was not even on the radar until about a month or two ago and wasn't when this Senate race was going into effect. There's a logical reason Gottheimer would be more ilkely to run for the seat than Sherrill. I didn't even know he was even in consideration for the governorship until today.

Besides, this would be my senate seat. It would have been really nice if you went my way on this and picked Gottheimer.

I'm going with Sherrill, but for our purposes it really doesn't matter as the main thing is in this cycle the winner from this district would be a Democrat.
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« Reply #47 on: February 14, 2023, 03:23:59 PM »


I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.


Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  

I went with Mr. X's take on this. Gottheimer runs for Governor in 2025 and Sherrill runs for the Sente here.

Sherrill has had her eyes on the governorship for the past couple of years. A Gottheimer bid was not even on the radar until about a month or two ago and wasn't when this Senate race was going into effect. There's a logical reason Gottheimer would be more ilkely to run for the seat than Sherrill. I didn't even know he was even in consideration for the governorship until today.

Besides, this would be my senate seat. It would have been really nice if you went my way on this and picked Gottheimer.

I'm going with Sherrill, but for our purposes it really doesn't matter as the main thing is in this cycle the winner from this district would be a Democrat.

Honestly I could envision it being where Gottheimer runs at first with Sherrill eyeing 2025, but the DSCC forces him out in favor of Sherrill as he starts to become a thorn in the side of the party.
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« Reply #48 on: February 14, 2023, 08:18:27 PM »



District 14: Lehigh Valley & Skyland
Population: 3,417,415 (+3.11%)
States: New Jersey (71.35%) and Pennsylvania (28.65%)
Largest City: Paterson, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+3
Biden/Trump: 54.62%-44.12%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.07
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.71
Demographics: 60% White, 21% Hispanic, 10% Black, 9% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The core of this district is centered around the last piece of the New York City Metropolitan Area, largely in New Jersey with a tiny part in Pennsylvania. This still left about a quarter of the district that needed to be filled. Thankfully the population of the Lehigh Valley Metropolitan Area was exactly the number I was looking for.

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs William Prempeh (R-Paterson, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. I have Mikie Sherrill choosing to run here after beating Josh Gottheimer in the Democratic primary after getting the pivotal endorsement of Susan WIld in the Lehigh Valley. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid high single digit win.

I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.



District 15: Delaware Valley
Population: 3,469,722 (+4.68%)
States: Delaware (16.45%), New Jersey (49.52%) and Pennsylvania 34.04%
Largest City: Cherry Hill Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: D+5
Biden/Trump: 56.99%-41.74%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.38
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.02
Demographics: 67% White, 11% Hispanic, 10% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The explanation for this district will make more sense once I discuss the next district, but in short, the goal here was to have a district that includes all of the outer areas of the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area. I also included the counties in South Jersey that are not in the Philly Metro, but would have no other place to go.

2022 Election: Thomas Carper (D-Wilmington, DE) vs Jefferson Van Drew (R-Dennis Township, NJ)
Explanation: This would have been Joe Biden’s district had this system been in place during his time in the Senate. Even though Delaware only makes up a little over 15% of this district, I would expect there would be incumbent deference and one of either Tom Carper or Chris Coons would end up getting the nomination. I went with Carper due to his seniority. On the Republican side I went with Rep. Van Drew as I could see Republicans wanting someone they could sell as a former Democrat. Governor Murphy narrowly lost the New Jersey portion of this in 2021, but Democrats did very well in the Delaware and Pennsylvania portions in 2022, so this would not end up being that close.

Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  

I actually disagree with you re: Sherrill/Gottheimer. Sherrill had been planning a gubernatorial run for quite awhile now whereas Gottheimer was not even on the radar for the governorship until a month or two ago. I don’t think either get the next NJ senate seat in our timeline (unless Menendez is primaried out I think that goes to Kim).

Also while Gottheimer definitely won’t beat Sherrill in a Senate primary he won’t beat her for the Governorship either. And since both are centrists from the neoliberal wing I can’t imagine a lot of people who’d vote for Sherrill in a primary but not Gottheimer.

That being said, a few points that actually work in Sherrill’s favor I didn’t think of. Gottheimer being a thorn in the side of the Democrats could lead the DSCC to force him out in favor of Sherrill even if he was the original nominee. Also Gottheimer leaving would have (theoretically) put his seat at risk but Sherrill’s seat would be fine without her.
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« Reply #49 on: February 14, 2023, 08:26:34 PM »



District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.
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