2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:39:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting (search mode)
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]
Author Topic: 2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting  (Read 6902 times)
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #75 on: March 08, 2023, 02:13:09 PM »



District 46: Wiregrass Country & Panhandle
Population: 3,419,629 (+3.17%)
States: Alabama (36.59%), Florida (34.48%) and Georgia (28.94%)
Largest City: Montgomery, Alabama
Cook PVI: R+15
Biden/Trump: 36.94%-61.84%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.12%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.24%
Demographics: 61% White, 6% Hispanic, 29% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district started with what was left in Georgia in the southern part of the state. I then added the panhandle region from Florida from just a bit west of Gainesville all the way to Pensacola. It then needed a bit more so I grabbed a chunk of Southeastern Alabama. As the drawing process moved on, I had to move Pensacola and Escambia County into a neighboring district for population reasons and as such I had to move this district further into Eastern Alabama.

2022 Election: Rebekah Jones (D-Gulf Breeze, FL) vs Tommy Tuberville (R-Auburn, AL)
Explanation: Both Katie Britt and Tommy Tuberville live in this district. In a direct primary I think Britt would get the slight edge, but with Tuberville being an incumbent already for two years, I do not think she would challenge him. Tuberville then goes on and wins the general election by a large margin.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #76 on: March 10, 2023, 12:05:25 AM »



District 47: Mississippi River Delta
Population: 3,358,492 (1.33%)
States: Arkansas (3.51%), Louisiana (39.58%), Mississippi (35.35%) and Tennessee (21.56%)
Largest City: Memphis, Tennessee
Cook PVI: D+10
Biden/Trump: 60.93%-37.44%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.56%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.80%
Demographics: 37% White, 6% Hispanic, 53% Black, 2% Asian, 1% Native
VRA Demographics: 40% White, 6% Hispanic, 51% Black, 2% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The hope here was to draw a majority black voting age population district centered in the Mississippi Delta region of Mississippi. This is possible if you combine the CIty of Memphis, the western Half of Mississippi, the river counties in Arkansas, the extreme northeastern counties of Louisiana, most of the Baton Rouge Metropolitan Area, and the City of New Orleans. Unlike most of the other districts I’ve drawn, keeping metro areas together was not the top priority, but I was able to keep all the cities together and the remainder of the Baton Rouge, Jackon, Memphis, and New Orleans Metropolitan Areas were the bulk of other southern based districts.

2022 Election: Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton, MS) vs Charlotte Bergmann (R-Memphis, TN)
Explanation: With this district being pretty evenly split between Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee it is possible there could be a very contentious primary here on the Democratic side. However, I think Rep. Bennie Thompson’s chairing of the Select Committee on the January 6 Attack would be a major springboard that he could parlay into a successful campaign in this district. He would go on to win the general election, but by a slightly smaller than expected margin as Democrats did not do as well as they typically do in this region in 2022.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #77 on: March 10, 2023, 12:19:25 AM »



District 48: Northern Chicagoland
Population: 3,155,629 (-4.79%)
States: Illinois (94.64%) and Wisconsin (5.36%)
Largest City: North Side of Chicago, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+14
Biden/Trump: 64.29%-33.90%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +0.86%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.50%
Demographics: 62% White, 17% Hispanic, 7% Black, 13% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The northern third of the Chicago Metropolitan Area makes up this district. This includes 30% of the City of Chicago, the northern third of Cook County, Lake County, McHenry County, and Kenosha County in Wisconsin. This is the last district in the Chicago Metropolitan Area, which makes up three Senate districts nearly perfectly.

2022 Election: Tammy Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates, IL) vs Kathy Salvi (R-Mundelein, IL)
Explanation: Senator Duckworth lives in this very Democratic district. She would face no real competition here in both the primary and in the general election.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #78 on: March 10, 2023, 11:46:45 AM »



District 49: Driftless Area & Northwoods
Population: 3,365,067 (+1.53%)
States: Illinois (0.65%), Iowa (20.26%), Minnesota (11.37%) and Wisconsin (67.72%)
Largest City: Madison, Wisconsin
Cook PVI: R+0
Biden/Trump: 50.98%-47.11%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.59%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.78%
Demographics: 85% White, 5% Hispanic, 4% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district was formed out of what was left in Wisconsin after the creation of Northern Chicagoland district and the to be discussed Western Lake Michigan Shoreline district. From there the remaining third of the district came from Northeastern Iowa and Southwestern Iowa. These areas also have geographical similarities to the Wisconsin portion of this seat. Jo Daviess County, Illinois was added for aesthetic purposes, as this district looked bad without it. 

2022 Election: Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison, WI) vs Sean Duffy (R-Weston, WI)
Explanation: The midterm results here in 2022 were Democrats winning by about 5.5 points, a small swing in their favor compared to 2020. As previously mentioned, this is one of the tipping point seats, critical to both parties in their attempts to take the majority in the Senate. Based on her past performances, I could see Senator Baldwin winning here in the high single digits. Republicans would still draw a solid challenger, even though most of the power players in the Wisconsin Republican party live in the eastern part of the state. I decided to go with former Rep. Sean Duffy.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #79 on: March 13, 2023, 11:03:56 PM »



District 50: Eastern Corn Belt
Population: 3,167,459 (-4.44%)
States: Illinois (79.28%) and Iowa (20.72%)
Largest City: Rockford, Illinois
Cook PVI: R+6
Biden/Trump: 44.63%-53.14%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.22%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.14%
Demographics: 78% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district started with what was left of Illinois after all of the other districts were drawn in the state. This ended up being most of Northwestern Illinois and all of Central Illinois. To get the rest of the needed population, I decided to add Southeastern Iowa and was able to line it up so it matched the Driftless Area & Northwoods district.

2022 Election: David Palmer (Champaign, IL) vs Darin LaHood (R-Dunlap, IL)
Explanation: Senate Democrats lost this seat by around 9 points in 2022. Senator Dick Durbin lives in this district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and retire. I actually considered having him carpetbag to the Western Chicagoland District, as I think he would do well there considering just how long he’s represented the entire state of Illinois, but I decided against it. I went with Rep. LaHood as I feel like he would have the right mix of establishment support, while not turning off the MAGA crowd.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #80 on: March 13, 2023, 11:41:08 PM »



District 51: Greater St. Louis
Population: 3,172,999 (-4.27%)
States: Illinois (26.50%) and Missouri (73.50%)
Largest City: St. Louis, Missouri
Cook PVI: R+3
Biden/Trump: 48.31%-49.88%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.28%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.92%
Demographics: 72% White, 4% Hispanic, 18% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The St. Louis Metropolitan Area makes up 85% of the target population needed for a district. The remaining population came from adding surrounding counties to create a very aesthetically pleasing square shaped district. Unfortunately the shape of this district resulted in ugly looking Mid-South district. Choices had to be made and I think I made the right ones.

2022 Election: Claire McCaskill (D-St. Louis, Missouri) vs Eric Schmitt (R-Glendale, Missouri)
Explanation: In what ended up being one of the biggest squeakers of the night, Claire McCaskill narrowly wins this seat to return to Congress after losing in 2018. Senate Democrats won this seat by two points in 2022 and McCaskill would end up winning by that same margin as well. Eric Schmitt, then Missouri’s Attorney General and current United States Senator, runs here on the Republican side.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #81 on: March 13, 2023, 11:43:46 PM »

Small question what’s the difference between swing and trend?

Swing looks at how the margin in an area changed between two elections, while trend looks at how the margin in an area changed between two elections adjusting to a 50-50 election by subtracting the national swing from the local swing.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #82 on: March 14, 2023, 08:48:09 AM »

Your mid-south district can be improved easily by removing its northern-most counties and instead taking Carbondale and other parts of your St. Louis district so that Little Egypt isn't split so badly.  There's no reason your St. Louis district can't go west rather than south/east.  Have your brown district take more of Iowa so that your orange district can take the removed parts of the red district. 

At this point things essentailly have to be frozen in place given all the different calculations that are in place. Also I'm not sure what your proposing would look that much better than the current map. I've found with some of these, things can look better if you conceptualize some of the districts as pairs. Greater St. Louis and Mid-South would be one of those examples, with Upper Ohio River Valley and Northern Appalachia being another.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #83 on: March 14, 2023, 09:02:54 AM »

District 51: Greater St. Louis
Population: 3,172,999 (-4.27%)
States: Illinois (26.50%) and Missouri (73.50%)
Largest City: St. Louis, Missouri
Cook PVI: R+3
Biden/Trump: 48.31%-49.88%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.28%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.92%
Demographics: 72% White, 4% Hispanic, 18% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The St. Louis Metropolitan Area makes up 85% of the target population needed for a district. The remaining population came from adding surrounding counties to create a very aesthetically pleasing square shaped district. Unfortunately the shape of this district resulted in ugly looking Mid-South district. Choices had to be made and I think I made the right ones.

2022 Election: Claire McCaskill (D-St. Louis, Missouri) vs Eric Schmitt (R-Glendale, Missouri)
Explanation: In what ended up being one of the biggest squeakers of the night, Claire McCaskill narrowly wins this seat to return to Congress after losing in 2018. Senate Democrats won this seat by two points in 2022 and McCaskill would end up winning by that same margin as well. Eric Schmitt, then Missouri’s Attorney General and current United States Senator, runs here on the Republican side.

Doesn’t McCaskill live in Kansas City?

I did some digging, it appears that sometime after she became a statewide official she moved to the St. Louis area. Probably after she married her second husband who was from the area. She's probably lived there for close to 20 years now.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #84 on: March 14, 2023, 03:04:30 PM »

McCaskill is done with running for elected office; pick someone else.

Because Missouri in real life is a red state. This is a swing district.

Exactly.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #85 on: March 19, 2023, 08:55:58 AM »



District 43: Congaree Bottomland & Peach Country
Population: 3,189,541 (-3.77%)
States: Georgia (50.40%) and South Carolina (49.60%)
Largest City: Augusta, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.11%-48.66%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.40%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.04%
Demographics: 50% White, 5% Hispanic, 41% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The idea with this district was to attempt to connect all the African American communities in the Georgia Black Belt and Central South Carolina. Unfortunately, given the current demographics in this region, it comes a little short. I considered drawing an arm into the Charleston Metropolitan Area to pick up Black voters there, but I decided against it as I don’t think it would get it over 50% VAP. I do still think this is still a solid district from a community of interest point of view as it connects similar sized metros in Columbia, Augusta, Macon, and Columbus. Also, just as an interesting observation, I’m pretty sure this is the district that is the closest to a pure 50-50 split between two states.

2022 Election: Stephen Benjamin (D-Colulmbia, SC) vs Drew Ferguson (R-West Point, GA)
Explanation: Given the results from 2020, I would expect this race to draw two solid candidates from both parties. For the Democrats, I decided to go with then Columbia, SC mayor Stephen Benjamin and for the Republicans, Rep. Drew Fergueson. Fergueson is considering a run for Governor in 2026, so he clearly has some desire for a promotion. Democrats did not do well in this region in the 2020 midterm elections. Using an average of elections in Georgia and the Governor’s race in South Carolina, the Republicans won here by around 4.5 points, a 6 point swing from Biden’s results in 2020. I would expect Ferguson to win here as well.

Would it not be possible to make this district majority black by bringing in the likes of Montgomery, Alabama?

I'm not sure, the problem is what to do with the very white afters north of Montgomery that are in the purple district.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #86 on: March 21, 2023, 08:21:25 PM »

Just a FYI that this will be on a bit of a pause right now. My wife and I recently bought a house and will be moving over the course of the next month and I won't have the time for this. Hope to start it back up towards the end of April.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #87 on: July 20, 2023, 01:38:26 PM »


Will be coming back sometime in the relatively new future.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 12 queries.