2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting

[Gass3268]

Lehigh Valley with close-in NYC suburbs?  That just feels too weird.  Give Scranton to the maroon district instead of West Virginia (better fit with the Southern Tier), put the Lehigh Valley in with your red district (definitely fits better with Lancaster/York than Scranton does, and it's no longer a rump to a NY-centric district), run the green district into central Jersey, and have your blue district take Atlantic City, Cape May, and some of Delmarva. 

I have to disagree with you here. In recent years there has been a large influx of folks from New Jersey and New York moving to the Lehigh Valley for cheaper housing, increasing the ties between the two regions. You can see evidence of this with Amtrak developing a line between Allentown and New York City, in addition to studies showing that Yankees fans outnumbering Phillies fans in a large portion of the Lehigh Valley Metro Area. Lastly, with Monroe County and Wayne County Pennsylvania already in the Combined New York Metropolitan Area, adding the Lehigh Valley really helps make this district more aesthetically pleasing.

[Gass3268]

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I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.

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Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  

I went with Mr. X's take on this. Gottheimer runs for Governor in 2025 and Sherrill runs for the Sente here.

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I’d think Kean runs for house again, he’d probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.

Who do you think would run in this Senate seat?

I honestly don’t know. It wouldn’t be Chris Smith because he seems content in his safe house seat. Ciattarelli seems like he’s eyeing governor again in 2025. Guadagno left the GOP a year or two ago. Malliotakis may consider it because of the Hochulmander, and it’s probably too late for her to drop back down after it’s overturned in April. But she’ll have a hard time winning outside of NJ.

I imagine the nominee will be someone from Monmouth or Ocean. They’d have a big advantage in any primary because Republican voters are mostly packed there.  Maybe Tom MacArthur would make his comeback here?

The other obvious option is Mehmet Oz. He doesn't live in the part of New Jersey covered by this district, but given a competitive district here, it wouldn't be as far to carpetbag as Pennsylvania was.

Yeah, I have Dr. Oz only moving a couple municipalities up the Hudson River to Englewood Cliffs.

[Gass3268]

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I believe Gottheimer will be the nominee, because Sherrill is clearly planning to run for governor in 2025 and wouldn’t run for this seat (though I agree she’d easily beat him in a primary). And Republicans almost certainly run a fairly serious candidate here rather than a nobody like Prempeh. Honestly this could very well be where Dr. Oz runs in this scenario.

snip

Van Drew? He would absolutely not give up his Trump+5 house seat to run for a Biden+15 Senate district. And Carper’s on retirement watch anyways IRL so he’d step aside for Coons here.

I agree re: Van Drew, but from what I’ve read, Gottheimer is already quietly laying the early groundwork for a Gubernatorial run in 2025.  I actually think he boxes out Sherrill in that race (he seems more determined to run for Governor and they’d risk cannibalizing each other’s bases if they both ran).  Sherrill has also got a much better chance of rising in the House if she bids her time since Gottheimer is basically persona non grata with leadership whereas Sherrill seems to be pretty well-liked amongst the Caucus and AFAIK hasn’t really pissed off anyone important.  Gottheimer is at a dead end in terms of long-term advancement if he remains in the House and I think this realization is why he’s quietly shifted gears towards running for Governor.

This district gives them a clear off-ramp that still lets Sherrill move up the ladder if she doesn’t run for Governor.  Plus, I highly doubt Gottheimer would win the Democratic primary for a Senate district.  Even if Sherrill didn’t run, some other ambitious pol would step up and take him out.  I think they probably make an agreement where Gottheimer doesn’t run for this seat and supports Sherrill in exchange for her backing him in the 2025 Governor’s race.  Sherrill would win the primary in a landslide with token opposition (if that) and then easily win the GE.  

I went with Mr. X's take on this. Gottheimer runs for Governor in 2025 and Sherrill runs for the Sente here.

Sherrill has had her eyes on the governorship for the past couple of years. A Gottheimer bid was not even on the radar until about a month or two ago and wasn't when this Senate race was going into effect. There's a logical reason Gottheimer would be more ilkely to run for the seat than Sherrill. I didn't even know he was even in consideration for the governorship until today.

Besides, this would be my senate seat. It would have been really nice if you went my way on this and picked Gottheimer.

I'm going with Sherrill, but for our purposes it really doesn't matter as the main thing is in this cycle the winner from this district would be a Democrat.

[Gass3268]

District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

[Gass3268]

District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: I’m sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.

I'll use it.

[Gass3268]

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District 17: Susquehanna River Valley
Population: 3,251,799 (-1.89%)
States: Pennsylvania (100%)
Largest City: Reading, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.19%-57.43%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.00
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.64
Demographics: 78% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Susquehanna River is the main connecting point for this district as it is almost entirely within its watershed. The objective was to connect all of the metropolitan areas that are present in this area from Scranton to Gettysburg.

2022 Election: Jessica King (D-Lancaster, PA) vs Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton, PA)
Explanation: This is Bob Casey’s district, but I think he would see the writing on the wall and realize this is a losing cause. Even Shapiro lost this district by almost two points last year. Lou Barletta finally gets the promotion he’s been desperately seeking since 2018.

Barletta definitely underperforms here. Maybe he only wins by 9 here.

PS: I’m sorry about getting so defensive about the Sherrill seat. I had no clue Gottheimer was planning on running for governor as well. Consider this his concession speech to Sherrill.

Would you at least consider my write up for the story?

2022 Election: Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair, NJ) vs Mehmet Oz (R-Englewood Cliffs, NJ)
Explanation: Explanation: Explanation: This would have been Pat Toomey’s district if he had decided not to retire and I do not see him changing his mind, especially with having to campaign in a district that is largely new territory. Josh Gottheimer was originally set to be the Democratic nominee, but as he increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Biden administration, the DSCC would force him out in favor of Mikie Sherrill, who originally had her eyes on the governorship in 2025. Dr. Oz chooses to run here instead of the more Democratic seats in the Philadelphia Metro Area, only having to move up the river from Cliffside Park to Englewood Cliffs. While 2022 was rough for Democrats in the New York Metro Area, they still won the New Jersey side here in the very narrow 2021 Governor’s race. Also Democrats did very well in the Lehigh Valley in 2022 up and down the ticket. I would expect Sherrill to pull out a solid win.

Dude if you don’t like how he’s doing it make your own thread

I’m just sharing my opinions.

No worries, I like the back and forth. All I ask is that we snip out the pictures in quotes so that it doesn't clutter the thread.

Hope to have more districts later today, DRA was acting weird for me last night so I wasn't able to take screenshots.

[Gass3268]

I got the map to work! New updates coming this evening!

[Gass3268]

District 18: Upper Ohio River Valley
Population: 3,447,079 (4.00%)
States: Ohio (20.85%), Pennsylvania (75.53%) and West Virginia (3.62%)
Largest City: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Cook PVI: R+6
Biden/Trump: 44.99%-53.82%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.04%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.32%
Demographics: 83% White, 2% Hispanic, 10% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Pittsburgh Metropolitan Area is the core of this district, but that alone only made up a little over 2/3rds of what was needed. To fill it out I decided to add the Mahoning Valley, plus everything in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia south of that down to just below the Mason-Dixon line. This ended up having a very strong community of interest of many different steel mill communities.

2022 Election: John Fetterman (D-Braddock, PA) vs David McCormick (R-Pittsburgh, PA)
Explanation: If you average out the Democratic Senate performances in this district from 2022 (used 2020 for West Virginia), the Republicans only win by a few thousand votes. Fetterman had a very impressive performance in the Pennsylvania portion, winning it by ~4 points. However, the strong Republican results in Ohio and West Virginia would just be too much for him to overcome. Funny enough, if this was before 2016 I would have been called out for gerrymandering in favor of Democrats by adding the Mahoning Valley to a Pittsburgh based district. Not any more!

[Gass3268]

District 19: Lower Chesapeake Bay
Population: 3,365,800 (+1.55)
States: Delaware (12.46%), Maryland (8.44%), North Carolina (21.90%) and Virginia (57.21%)
Largest City: Virginia Beach, VA
Cook PVI: D+0
Biden/Trump: 51.90%-46.37%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.27%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.91%
Demographics: 55% White, 7% Hispanic, 32% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The idea of this district was to put together many distinct regions along the Eastern Seaboard that did not have enough population to have its own district. Centered around the Hampton Roads/Virginia Beach Metropolitan area in Virginia, this district also combines that with a vast majority of the Delvamar peninsula, the Virginia Chesapeake peninsulas, and most of the inner/outer banks of North Carolina.

2022 Election: Elaine Luria (D-Virginia Beach, VA) vs Gregory Murphy (R-Greenville. NC)
Explanation: Democrats have not done well in this region since 2020. Northeast North Carolina swung hard against Beasley in her Senate race and Rep. Luria lost her reelection campaign in the very swingy Virginia Beach based VA-02. I think Luria decides to run here as it’s a chance to move up and the PVI of the district is actually a bit more Democratic than her house seat was. Republicans decide to go with Rep. Greg Murphy from NC-03, which needs up biting them in the butt after he tweeted that "No one forces anyone to have sex." Abortion then became the top issue in the race and Luria was able to narrowly pull out a win that outpaced the fundamentals and down ballot races.

[Gass3268]

District 20: Upper Chesapeake Bay
Population: 3,173,993 (-4.24%)
States: Maryland (100%)
Largest City: Baltimore, Maryland
Cook PVI: D+8
Biden/Trump: 59.62%-37.71%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +8.17%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +5.81%
Demographics: 55% White, 7% Hispanic, 29% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district is centered around the Baltimore Metropolitan Area. In order to get the remaining necessary population, it also includes the remainder of Maryland west of the Chesapeake Bay that is not in the Washington Metropolitan Area and Eastern Shore counties that are north of Queen Anne’s County.

2022 Election: John Sarbanes (D-Towson, MD) vs Chris Chaffee (R-Prince Fredrick, MD)
Explanation: It appears that Senator Ben, who would be the incumbent in this district, is leaning towards retirement. Therefore I went with Rep. who has always appeared to have had his eye set on running for some form of statewide office at some point. He would end up winning this election easily.

[Gass3268]

District 21: Potomac River Valley
Population: 3,157,141 (-4.75%)
States: District of Columbia (21.84%) and Maryland (78.16%)
Largest City: Washington, DC
Cook PVI: D+32
Biden/Trump: 81.66%-16.00%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.02%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.66%
Demographics: 33% White, 17% Hispanic, 40% Black, 10% Asian, 2% Native
VRA Demographics: 36% White, 15% Hispanic, 39% Black, 10% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: As part of a deal when this new process was implemented, the District of Columbia would be included, but the number of Senate seats would remain as if there were only 50 states. When drawing districts it ended up making sense to split the Washington Metropolitan Area down the middle based on the Potomac River, with this being the Maryland side.

2022 Election: Chris Van Hollen (D-Kensington, MD) vs Uncontested
Explanation: Senator Van Hollen is the incumbent and would probably get preferred treatment here. Whenever he decides to retire I could definitely see this as a palace where an African American candidate would win. This is also the only seat in the country that the Republicans decided to leave uncontested.

[Gass3268]

District 22: Central Appalachia
Population: 3,173,174 (-4.26%)
States: Kentucky (20.90%), Ohio (1.84%), Virginia (40.62%) and West Virginia (36.64%)
Largest City: Roanoke, Virginia
Cook PVI: R+23
Biden/Trump: 29.10%-69.31%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.81%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.55%
Demographics: 89% White, 3% Hispanic, 5% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Asian

Drawing Thought Process: The objective with this district was to unite the major coal mining areas of the central Appalachian Mountains. This included Eastern Kentucky, Western Virginia, and Southern West Virginia. This was then filled out by including the Shenandoah Valley. Lawrence County, Ohio was added in order to complete the Huntington–Ashland Metropolitan Area.

2022 Election: Paula Jean Swearengin (D-Sophia, WV) vs Shelley Moore Capito (R-Charleston, WV)
Explanation: Senator Capito is the incumbent here and would probably be the Republican nominee, but you can never rule out a potential successful primary from someone to her right when you have a district this Republican. Paula Jean Swearengin gives it another go because why not, it seems like something she would do. Funny enough, before President Obama was elected in 2008, this district would probably be a very safe seat for Democrats with Robert Byrd winning with massive margins.

[Gass3268]

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Your call, but I really think Murphy would’ve been the Todd Akin of 2022 ITL.  In June 2022, he had this to say about exceptions for abortion in cases of rape: “Nobody forces anybody to have sex.”  He literally straight up denied the existence of rape.  It didn’t matter in NC-3, but in this district against a serious opponent…

Ooooo, I forgot about that. I'll be making some edits here.

With regard to the Upper Chesapeake and Potomac valley is it possible to rearrange them to create a majority black seat?

Did a very quick test and yes I think it would be possible by combining PG County/Charles County to Baltimore city. I typically look at these almost exclusively by metro area, I sometimes forget to see if I can combine things. I going to move move forward for now, but I'll come back to this at the end and probably make the change.

[Gass3268]

District 23: Lake Erie Shoreline
Population: 3,397,084 (+2.49%)
States: Ohio (100%)
Largest City: Cleveland, Ohio
Cook PVI: D+2
Biden/Trump: 52.49%-46.22%
2016->2020 Swing: Rep +1.49%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep 3.85%
Demographics: 72% White, 5% Hispanic, 18% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The core of this district is the Cleveland Metropolitan Area and the old Western Reserve area of Ohio. This only makes up about 60% of the population needed for a district, so I also added surrounding metropolitan and micropolitan areas. This included Ashtabula, Akron, Canton, Norwalk, Sandusky, and Wooster.

2022 Election: Sherrod Brown (D-Avon, OH) vs Matthew Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls, OH)
Explanation: While this district has been drifting to the right over the past two cycles, it is still tailor made for Senator Brown. He received 60% of the vote here in his 2018 re-election campaign against Renacci in 2018 and Tim Ryan even did a point and a half better in 2022 than Biden did. Jim Renacci gives it another go, but ends up losing to Matt Dolan in the primary. Brown wins the general without much a sweat, but this is a seat to watch by the end of the decade.

[Gass3268]

District 24: Maumee & St. Joseph River Watersheds
Population: 3,467,640 (+4.62%)
States: Indiana (48.73%), Michigan (8.99%) and Ohio (42.28%)
Largest City: Toledo, Ohio
Cook PVI: R+15
Biden/Trump: 36.79%-61.40%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +0.50%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.85%
Demographics: 79% White, 7% Hispanic, 9% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district stretches from the Michiana region along Lake Michigan all the way over to the western tip of Lake Erie. It combines the metropolitan areas of Fort Wayne, South Bend, Toledo, and dozens of other metro/micropolitan areas. The end result is a very rural, yet industrial influenced district with a large Amish population in addition to a large number of German Catholics.

2022 Election: Craig Swartz (D-Upper Sanduskty, OH) vs Jim Banks (R-Columbia City, IN)
Explanation: Unsurprisingly, this district is incredibly conservative and winning the Republican primary is tantamount to winning the general election. Jim Banks, who is running for the Senate in Indiana, is from this district. He would be the clear favorite in a Republica primary and would cruise through the general election. Craig Swartz, who likes to run campaigns he has to know he can’t win, decides to be the sacrificial lamb here.

[Gass3268]

District 25: Muskingum & Scioto River Watersheds
Population: 3,423,727 (+3.30%)
States: Ohio (100%)
Largest City: Columbus, Ohio
Cook PVI: R+7
Biden/Trump: 44.83%-53.64%
2016->2020 Swing: D+1.02%
2016->2020 Trend: R+1.34%
Demographics: 77% White, 4% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district started with the Columbus Metropolitan Area, but like the Lake Erie Shoreline district, that only ended up being around 60% of the population needed. The remainder was filled with as much of central and southeast Ohio as necessary. This included adding the Mansfield and Springfield Metropolitan Areas, plus dozens of micropolitan areas.
 
2022 Election: Gary Josephson (D-Columbus, OH) vs Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville, OH)
Explanation: This is a district that I think with the growth around Columbus and the strong Democratic swings in that metropolitan area will eventually become competitive. It’s just going to take another redistricting cycle to lose a lot of the more rural and conservative areas in the outer parts of the district. JIm Jordan lives in this district, but I think he’d rather run the House Judiciary Committee than be a freshman Senator at this time. After serving two terms in both the Ohio House and Ohio Senate, Troy Balderson made the jump up a level. 2022 would have been two terms in the US House, so I think he would have taken the jump here. The general election margin would probably be around ten points.

[Gass3268]

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Banks wouldn’t run if the seat was up in 2022. At the time he still had his eye on house leadership and only switched gears IRL after he got shut out.

I think in this scenario he would see this district as being tailor made for him and jump for it instead of of going for House leadership.

Several years ago, I had a somewhat similar idea, but my idea was to have only 87 US Senators, each elected from a "district" made up of 5 adjacent congressional districts. Using current apportionment data, Upper New England -- ME, NH, VT -- would be one senatorial district; MA-3, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, and MA-8 would be one district; the state of RI combined with MA-2, MA-4, and MA-9 would be one district; the state of CT would be a district until itself; FL-17, FL-19, FL-26, FL-27, and FL-28 would be one district; FL-20, FL-22, FL-23,FL-24, and FL-25 would be a district; AK, HI, and two coastal CA districts would be one district; the rest of CA would have ten districts; WA would have two districts; OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, OR-5, and OR-6 would be a district; OR-2, and the states of Idaho and Montana would be a district; and so on.

Interesting idea! I have thought before of taking my project a step further and having each senate district have 5 congressional district, but that was going to end up being a lot of work, lol!

[Gass3268]

District 26: Miami River Valleys
Population: 3,355,875 (+1.25%)
States: Indiana (4.43%), Kentucky (14.06%) and Ohio (81.51%)
Largest City: Cincinnati, Ohio
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.09%-57.32%
2016->2020 Swing: D+3.18%
2016->2020 Trend: D+0.82%
Demographics: 77% White, 4% Hispanic, 14% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: Two thirds of this district's population is based in the Cincinnati Metropolitan Area which was the starting point when drawing here. An additional 24% is located in the Dayton Metropolitan Area. The remaining population came from the largely rural counties that surround these two metro areas.

2022 Election: Matthew Lehman (D-Newport, KY) vs J.D. Vance (R-Cincinnati, OH)
Explanation: Prior to 2022 this would have been Rob Portman’s district, but with him retiring, J.D. also replaces him here in this timeline. Only this time very little money is spent on what would be a very easy race. Even with the decent swings towards the Democrats here recently, its hard to see this district being competitive anytime soon.

[Gass3268]

District 27: Northern Piedmont
Population: 3,237,781 (+2.31%)
States: Virginia (100%)
Largest City: Alexandria, Virginia
Cook PVI: D+13
Biden/Trump: 64.98%-32.99%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +5.88%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +3.52%
Demographics: 51% White, 17% Hispanic, 14% Black, 16% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: Here is the Virginia side of the Washington Metro Area. This district includes all of the Metro’s counties south of the Potomac River, but east of the Shenandoah Valley. This resulted in a district that still needed between 5-10% more in population, which I got by adding the Charlottesville area.

2022 Election: Mark Warner (D-Alexandria, VA) vs Jim Myles (R-Burke, VA)
Explanation: Not long ago this district would be competitive under the right conditions, but those days have passed. Senator Warner lives here and would easily win here without much of a sweat.

[Gass3268]

District 28: Central Piedmont
Population: 3,452,207 (+4.15%)
States: North Carolina (44.14%) and Virginia (55.86%)
Largest City: Greensboro, North Carolina
Cook PVI: R+4
Biden/Trump: 47.99%-50.43%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.95%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.59%
Demographics: 61% White, 8% Hispanic, 26% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: In previous incarcerations of this map series prior to 2020 this region of the country was drawn a bit differently. In prior years the Triad (Greensboro-Winston Salem) region of North Carolina was connected to more of Central North Carolina (Burlington area and south) plus more of Central Virginia. However this time around, due to population growth and shifts, this region had to pick up the Richland Metro Area. This then becomes a Richomond, Lynchburg, and Triad district.

2022 Election: Herb Jones (D-Providence Forge, VA) vs Ted Budd (R-Advance, NC)
Explanation: This seat was competitive in 2020 and quite possibly will be in the future if the current leftward trends continue in this district, particularly in the Richmond Metropolitan Area. However, this area was not as competitive for Democrats in both 2021 in Virginia and in 2022 in North Carolina. Ted Budd beats Mark Walker in the primary here, like he did in real life, and goes on to win relatively easily in the general election. A seat to look out for by the end of the decade.

[Gass3268]

District 29: Research Triangle
Population: 3,178,555 (-4.10%)
States: North Carolina (95.02%) and Virginia (4.98%)
Largest City: Raleigh, North Carolina
Cook PVI: D+6
Biden/Trump: 57.70%-40.67%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.12%
Demographics: 56% White, 12% Hispanic, 27% Black, 6% Asian, 3% Native

Drawing Thought Process: As alluded to in the prior district, before the 2020 Census, I typically would combine the Research Triangle (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel HIll) area with the Richmond Metropolitan Area. The two areas together had the perfect population. However, the very strong growth in the Triangle required me to shed the Richmond Metro from this district. This required me to pick up more in North Carolina including the Burlington and Fayetteville Metropolitan Areas.

2022 Election: Cheri Beasley (D-Raleigh, NC) vs Christine Villaverde (R-Fuquay-Varina, NC)
Explanation: Using a combination of the 2021 Governor’s race in Virginia and the 2022 Senate race in North Carolina, Democrats essentially matched Joe Biden’s margin in this district. Democrats would in all likelihood have a very competitive primary here, but I have Cheri Beasley pulling out the win here. Whoever the Democrat ends up being would have zero issue winning.

[Gass3268]

District 30: Southern Atlantic Coast
Population: 3,216,703 (-2.95%)
States: Georgia (21.67%), North Carolina (32.67%) and South Carolina 45.65%
Largest City: Charleston, South Carolina
Cook PVI: R+9
Biden/Trump: 43.05%-55.48%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.15%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.79%
Demographics: 64% White, 8% Hispanic, 23% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The concept behind this district was to have a distinct that hugged the coastline combining the metropolitan areas of Charleston, Savannah, and Wilmington. In order to fill out the population, additional portions of North Carolina north of Wilingoton and George south of Savannah were added. In the prior decade, Jacksonville was added to this district, but after 2020 this area had to be shed.

2022 Election: Wade Herring (D-Savannah, GA) vs Tim Scott (R-Charleston, SC)
Explanation: As the only incumbent in this district, Tim Scott would get preferential treatment in the Republican Primary and go on winning this district easily in the general election. If the current Democratic swings in these metros continue it’s possible this district could be competitive by the end of the decade or after the next redistricting cycle which would result in the shedding of northern or southern conservative areas, but we will have to wait and see.

[Gass3268]

District 31: Metrolina
Population: 3,169,799 (-4.37%) 
States: North Carolina (83.95%) and South Carolina (16.05%)
Largest City: Charlotte, North Carolina
Cook PVI: R+4
Biden/Trump: 47.76%-50.79%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.30%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.94%
Demographics: 63% White, 11% Hispanic, 24% Black, 5% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district started with the Charlotte Metropolitan Area. This only gave me 80% of the population needed. So in order to fill out the district, I choose to add the Sandhills region of North Carolina and its neighboring areas in South Carolina. As the Charlotte Metro continues to grow, I expect that a large portion of this added area will be shed in redistricting after the 2030 Census.

2022 Election: Charles Graham (D-Lumberton, NC) vs Thom Tillis (R-Huntersville, NC)
Explanation: Competitive on paper, Budd beat Beasley on the North Carolina side by 4 points and both McMaster and Scott won decisively on the South Carolina side. Thom Tillis is the incumbent here and would win solidly in both the primary and general. The relative competitiveness draws a solid Democratic nominee in Charles Graham, but he ends up falling short by about 8 points. All that said, if the current trends continue here, I would expect this district to be one of the most competitive districts in the later point of this decade and would probably flip to Democrats after large parts of the non-Charoltte Metro areas are removed after the 2030 Census.

[Gass3268]

Is it possible to put the Triangle and Triad together, or does that not quite work?

I tired that and the population after combining all those metro areas is just too much.

[Gass3268]

Small note Beasley is from Fayetteville according to Wikipedia, still lives in the seat tho

I went with what Our Campaigns had and I'm pretty sure they use the address that was provided in their candidacy/residency paperwork. I wouldn't be surprised he she had a residence in both Fayetteville and Raleigh.