2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #125 on: March 02, 2023, 04:22:29 PM »

Please stop clogging the thread with drabble and massive quote chains some of us are trying to read here
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #126 on: March 02, 2023, 04:46:49 PM »

Please stop clogging the thread with drabble and massive quote chains some of us are trying to read here

It’s not an Atlas thread without those, though.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #127 on: March 02, 2023, 04:55:56 PM »

It's Underwood/Sherrill in this project, but you can pretend it is whoever you want it to be. Like I said, all that really matters is what party holds the seat because at the end I'm going to count everything thing up and see how the current Senate breakdown would be.

One thing I'm proud of with how the map turned up is that the 50th seat is D+0 (Lower Chesapeake Bay) and the 51st seat (Driftless Area & Northwoods) is R+0. It was totally unintentional and I only realized it after I was totally done and was doing all the math.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #128 on: March 02, 2023, 04:56:25 PM »

Please stop clogging the thread with drabble and massive quote chains some of us are trying to read here

It’s not an Atlas thread without those, though.

I'm fine with the quote chains, just delete the pictures in the quotes please.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #129 on: March 02, 2023, 05:50:46 PM »

It's Underwood/Sherrill in this project, but you can pretend it is whoever you want it to be. Like I said, all that really matters is what party holds the seat because at the end I'm going to count everything thing up and see how the current Senate breakdown would be.

One thing I'm proud of with how the map turned up is that the 50th seat is D+0 (Lower Chesapeake Bay) and the 51st seat (Driftless Area & Northwoods) is R+0. It was totally unintentional and I only realized it after I was totally done and was doing all the math.

I was just offering some suggestions based on some facts that I know. I mean I convinced you to go with Coons for the South Jersey seat when you originally went with Carper.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #130 on: March 02, 2023, 07:23:11 PM »

It's Underwood/Sherrill in this project, but you can pretend it is whoever you want it to be. Like I said, all that really matters is what party holds the seat because at the end I'm going to count everything thing up and see how the current Senate breakdown would be.

One thing I'm proud of with how the map turned up is that the 50th seat is D+0 (Lower Chesapeake Bay) and the 51st seat (Driftless Area & Northwoods) is R+0. It was totally unintentional and I only realized it after I was totally done and was doing all the math.

I was just offering some suggestions based on some facts that I know. I mean I convinced you to go with Coons for the South Jersey seat when you originally went with Carper.

I'm fine with suggestions, I've used many by you and others. Please keep providing them. I'm just at a point were I'm cool with the decisions I've made and I want to move on.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #131 on: March 02, 2023, 08:19:44 PM »



District 41: Greater Detroit
Population: 3,456,739 (4.29%)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Detroit, Michigan
Cook PVI: D+10
Biden/Trump: 62.22%-36.52%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.75%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.39%
Demographics: 57% White, 5% Hispanic, 29% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The idea here was to include as much of the Detroit Metropolitan Area as possible as the entirety of the metro area is 32% over the population target. I started with Wayne County and then added as much of Macomb County and Oakland County as possible. For the two suburban counties I added the first three lines of cities and townships, with the exception of a few in east central Macomb for population purposes.

2022 Election: Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Heights, MI) vs Martell Bivings (R-Detroit, MI)
Explanation: This is incumbent Gary Peters’ district and I think he would easily be able to get through a primary and the general election. Given the PVI and the margin I do not think any major Republican would jump into this race.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #132 on: March 02, 2023, 08:54:01 PM »

It's Underwood/Sherrill in this project, but you can pretend it is whoever you want it to be. Like I said, all that really matters is what party holds the seat because at the end I'm going to count everything thing up and see how the current Senate breakdown would be.

One thing I'm proud of with how the map turned up is that the 50th seat is D+0 (Lower Chesapeake Bay) and the 51st seat (Driftless Area & Northwoods) is R+0. It was totally unintentional and I only realized it after I was totally done and was doing all the math.

I was just offering some suggestions based on some facts that I know. I mean I convinced you to go with Coons for the South Jersey seat when you originally went with Carper.

I'm fine with suggestions, I've used many by you and others. Please keep providing them. I'm just at a point were I'm cool with the decisions I've made and I want to move on.

I'm sorry. I got defensive when you initially agreed to my Gottheimer suggestion and reversed it when Mr. X provided a counterargument and I started grasping at straws.

He's probably right about Casten too. He'd probably be discouraged from seeking that senate seat because he's needed to get rid of Newman.

Also, given the Democratic party valuing diversity, I imagine they'll favor the woman of color in a swing seat over the white guy from a swing seat. Same thing with Sherrill/Gottheimer, minus Sherrill being a POC.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #133 on: March 02, 2023, 09:48:47 PM »



District 42: Northern Great Lakes Shorelines
Population: 3,477,871 (+4.93)
States: Michigan (88.71%), Minnesota (8.91%), and Wisconsin (2.38%)
Largest City: Duluth, Minnesota
Cook PVI: R+10
Biden/Trump: 41.69%-56.72%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.18%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.18%
Demographics: 85% White, 4% Hispanic, 6% Black, 1% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The starting point for this district was the remainder of the State of Michigan. This included a large percentage of the Detroit Metropolitan Area, Flint, the Tri-Cities Area, Northern Michigan, and the Upper Peninsula. This still left the district about 5 to 10 points under the population target. To get this remaining population I decided to add the Lake Superior shoreline counties from Wisconsin and the Iron Range counties from Minnesota.

2022 Election: Bob Lorinser (D-Marquette, MI) vs Lisa McClain (R-Bruce, MI)
Explanation: As crazy as it sounds, given this is a R+10 seat that Trump won by 15 points, using an average of major statewide results, this district was essentially tied in 2022! That said, I imagine a Republican would win this district in a major Federal race such as this, but it would end up being much closer than it should have any right to be. Rep. Lisa McClain lives in this district and appears to be interested in running for Senate in 2024. Democrats are kicking themselves for not putting up a stronger candidate after Lorinser only loses by mid single digits.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #134 on: March 02, 2023, 10:49:22 PM »



District 42: Northern Great Lakes Shorelines
Population: 3,477,871 (+4.93)
States: Michigan (88.71%), Minnesota (8.91%), and Wisconsin (2.38%)
Largest City: Duluth, Minnesota
Cook PVI: R+10
Biden/Trump: 41.69%-56.72%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.18%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.18%
Demographics: 85% White, 4% Hispanic, 6% Black, 1% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The starting point for this district was the remainder of the State of Michigan. This included a large percentage of the Detroit Metropolitan Area, Flint, the Tri-Cities Area, Northern Michigan, and the Upper Peninsula. This still left the district about 5 to 10 points under the population target. To get this remaining population I decided to add the Lake Superior shoreline counties from Wisconsin and the Iron Range counties from Minnesota.

2022 Election: Bob Lorinser (D-Marquette, MI) vs Lisa McClain (R-Bruce, MI)
Explanation: As crazy as it sounds, given this is a R+10 seat that Trump won by 15 points, using an average of major statewide results, this district was essentially tied in 2022! That said, I imagine a Republican would win this district in a major Federal race such as this, but it would end up being much closer than it should have any right to be. Rep. Lisa McClain lives in this district and appears to be interested in running for Senate in 2024. Democrats are kicking themselves for not putting up a stronger candidate after Lorinser only loses by mid single digits.

I’d go with Pete Stauber for this one. McClain’s only a freshman and I can’t see her making the jump after one term. Stauber at least is a sophomore.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #135 on: March 03, 2023, 12:09:30 AM »

District 42: Northern Great Lakes Shorelines
Population: 3,477,871 (+4.93)
States: Michigan (88.71%), Minnesota (8.91%), and Wisconsin (2.38%)
Largest City: Duluth, Minnesota
Cook PVI: R+10
Biden/Trump: 41.69%-56.72%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.18%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.18%
Demographics: 85% White, 4% Hispanic, 6% Black, 1% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The starting point for this district was the remainder of the State of Michigan. This included a large percentage of the Detroit Metropolitan Area, Flint, the Tri-Cities Area, Northern Michigan, and the Upper Peninsula. This still left the district about 5 to 10 points under the population target. To get this remaining population I decided to add the Lake Superior shoreline counties from Wisconsin and the Iron Range counties from Minnesota.

2022 Election: Bob Lorinser (D-Marquette, MI) vs Lisa McClain (R-Bruce, MI)
Explanation: As crazy as it sounds, given this is a R+10 seat that Trump won by 15 points, using an average of major statewide results, this district was essentially tied in 2022! That said, I imagine a Republican would win this district in a major Federal race such as this, but it would end up being much closer than it should have any right to be. Rep. Lisa McClain lives in this district and appears to be interested in running for Senate in 2024. Democrats are kicking themselves for not putting up a stronger candidate after Lorinser only loses by mid single digits.

I’d go with Pete Stauber for this one. McClain’s only a freshman and I can’t see her making the jump after one term. Stauber at least is a sophomore.

Michigan makes way too much of the % of this district for the eventual nominee to not come from there.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #136 on: March 03, 2023, 12:33:00 AM »

District 42: Northern Great Lakes Shorelines
Population: 3,477,871 (+4.93)
States: Michigan (88.71%), Minnesota (8.91%), and Wisconsin (2.38%)
Largest City: Duluth, Minnesota
Cook PVI: R+10
Biden/Trump: 41.69%-56.72%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.18%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.18%
Demographics: 85% White, 4% Hispanic, 6% Black, 1% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The starting point for this district was the remainder of the State of Michigan. This included a large percentage of the Detroit Metropolitan Area, Flint, the Tri-Cities Area, Northern Michigan, and the Upper Peninsula. This still left the district about 5 to 10 points under the population target. To get this remaining population I decided to add the Lake Superior shoreline counties from Wisconsin and the Iron Range counties from Minnesota.

2022 Election: Bob Lorinser (D-Marquette, MI) vs Lisa McClain (R-Bruce, MI)
Explanation: As crazy as it sounds, given this is a R+10 seat that Trump won by 15 points, using an average of major statewide results, this district was essentially tied in 2022! That said, I imagine a Republican would win this district in a major Federal race such as this, but it would end up being much closer than it should have any right to be. Rep. Lisa McClain lives in this district and appears to be interested in running for Senate in 2024. Democrats are kicking themselves for not putting up a stronger candidate after Lorinser only loses by mid single digits.

I’d go with Pete Stauber for this one. McClain’s only a freshman and I can’t see her making the jump after one term. Stauber at least is a sophomore.

Michigan makes way too much of the % of this district for the eventual nominee to not come from there.

Why not John Moolenaar instead? He’s the dean of the delegation there.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #137 on: March 03, 2023, 01:17:24 AM »

District 42: Northern Great Lakes Shorelines
Population: 3,477,871 (+4.93)
States: Michigan (88.71%), Minnesota (8.91%), and Wisconsin (2.38%)
Largest City: Duluth, Minnesota
Cook PVI: R+10
Biden/Trump: 41.69%-56.72%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.18%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.18%
Demographics: 85% White, 4% Hispanic, 6% Black, 1% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The starting point for this district was the remainder of the State of Michigan. This included a large percentage of the Detroit Metropolitan Area, Flint, the Tri-Cities Area, Northern Michigan, and the Upper Peninsula. This still left the district about 5 to 10 points under the population target. To get this remaining population I decided to add the Lake Superior shoreline counties from Wisconsin and the Iron Range counties from Minnesota.

2022 Election: Bob Lorinser (D-Marquette, MI) vs Lisa McClain (R-Bruce, MI)
Explanation: As crazy as it sounds, given this is a R+10 seat that Trump won by 15 points, using an average of major statewide results, this district was essentially tied in 2022! That said, I imagine a Republican would win this district in a major Federal race such as this, but it would end up being much closer than it should have any right to be. Rep. Lisa McClain lives in this district and appears to be interested in running for Senate in 2024. Democrats are kicking themselves for not putting up a stronger candidate after Lorinser only loses by mid single digits.

I’d go with Pete Stauber for this one. McClain’s only a freshman and I can’t see her making the jump after one term. Stauber at least is a sophomore.

Michigan makes way too much of the % of this district for the eventual nominee to not come from there.

Why not John Moolenaar instead? He’s the dean of the delegation there.

I considered him, but as of right now he does not appear interested based on what I can tell. McClain is the only Michigan representative in this district that appears very interested in running, she also represents a lot of the vote rich exurban areas in the Detroit Metro.
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« Reply #138 on: March 04, 2023, 10:34:31 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2023, 11:19:33 AM by Gass3268 »



District 43: Congaree Bottomland & Peach Country
Population: 3,189,541 (-3.77%)
States: Georgia (50.40%) and South Carolina (49.60%)
Largest City: Augusta, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.11%-48.66%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.40%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.04%
Demographics: 50% White, 5% Hispanic, 41% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The idea with this district was to attempt to connect all the African American communities in the Georgia Black Belt and Central South Carolina. Unfortunately, given the current demographics in this region, it comes a little short. I considered drawing an arm into the Charleston Metropolitan Area to pick up Black voters there, but I decided against it as I don’t think it would get it over 50% VAP. I do still think this is still a solid district from a community of interest point of view as it connects similar sized metros in Columbia, Augusta, Macon, and Columbus. Also, just as an interesting observation, I’m pretty sure this is the district that is the closest to a pure 50-50 split between two states.

2022 Election: Stephen Benjamin (D-Colulmbia, SC) vs Drew Ferguson (R-West Point, GA)
Explanation: Given the results from 2020, I would expect this race to draw two solid candidates from both parties. For the Democrats, I decided to go with then Columbia, SC mayor Stephen Benjamin and for the Republicans, Rep. Drew Fergueson. Fergueson is considering a run for Governor in 2026, so he clearly has some desire for a promotion. Democrats did not do well in this region in the 2020 midterm elections. Using an average of elections in Georgia and the Governor’s race in South Carolina, the Republicans won here by around 4.5 points, a 6 point swing from Biden’s results in 2020. I would expect Ferguson to win here as well.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #139 on: March 04, 2023, 11:39:45 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2023, 01:18:57 PM by Gass3268 »



District 44: Southern Ridge and Valley
Population: 3,204,442 (-3.32%)
States: Georgia (100%)
Largest City: Sandy Springs, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+14
Biden/Trump: 40.05%-58.49%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +9.56%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +7.20%
Demographics: 59% White, 14% Hispanic, 16% Black, 9% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district is centered around the northern suburbs and exurbs of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. This only provides about 83% of the population needed, so I also added a large portion of Northwest Georgia including the Dalton and Rome areas for an additional 423,455 people.

2022 Election: Bob Christian (D-Dawsonville, GA) vs Rob Woodall (R-Dacula, GA)
Explanation: Today this district is Safe Republican, but it won’t be in the near future. That 9.5 point swing to the Democrats was the second largest pro-Democratic swing in the country. Given the rapid diversifying growth in this region, I do not see how a Democrat doesn’t win here by the end of the decade. However, right now any Republican who runs here would win. Even someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene who I considered. Former Congressman Rob Woodall decided he wanted back in after retiring in 2020 narrowly beat a MAGA backed election denier in the primary, before going on to a big win in the general election. He would however have to change his residence, as Lawrenceville is not in this district. I imagine he would move to a place like nearby Dacula.
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« Reply #140 on: March 04, 2023, 12:40:45 PM »

Small question what’s the difference between swing and trend?
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« Reply #141 on: March 04, 2023, 12:41:44 PM »



District 44: Southern Ridge and Valley
Population: 3,204,442 (-3.32%)
States: Georgia (100%)
Largest City: Sandy Springs, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+14
Biden/Trump: 40.05%-58.49%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +9.56%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +7.20%
Demographics: 59% White, 14% Hispanic, 16% Black, 9% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district is centered around the northern suburbs and exurbs of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. This only provides about 83% of the population needed, so I also added a large portion of Northwest Georgia including the Dalton and Rome areas for an additional 423,455 people.

2022 Election: Bob Christian (D-Dawsonville, GA) vs Geoff Duncan (R-Cumming, GA)
Explanation: Today this district is Safe Republican, but it won’t be in the near future. That 9.5 point swing to the Democrats was the second largest pro-Democratic swing in the country. Given the rapid diversifying growth in this region, I do not see how a Democrat doesn’t win here by the end of the decade. However, right now any Republican who runs here would win. Even someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene who I considered. Former Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan runs here and ends up winning a narrow primary race against a MAGA backed election denier, before going on to a big win in the general election

I can’t see Geoff Duncan run for Senate. He left the LG office because he was sick of Trump’s craziness and has little interest in ever running for office again. I’d go with Rob Woodall making a comeback here.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #142 on: March 04, 2023, 01:14:14 PM »


District 44: Southern Ridge and Valley
Population: 3,204,442 (-3.32%)
States: Georgia (100%)
Largest City: Sandy Springs, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+14
Biden/Trump: 40.05%-58.49%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +9.56%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +7.20%
Demographics: 59% White, 14% Hispanic, 16% Black, 9% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district is centered around the northern suburbs and exurbs of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. This only provides about 83% of the population needed, so I also added a large portion of Northwest Georgia including the Dalton and Rome areas for an additional 423,455 people.

2022 Election: Bob Christian (D-Dawsonville, GA) vs Geoff Duncan (R-Cumming, GA)
Explanation: Today this district is Safe Republican, but it won’t be in the near future. That 9.5 point swing to the Democrats was the second largest pro-Democratic swing in the country. Given the rapid diversifying growth in this region, I do not see how a Democrat doesn’t win here by the end of the decade. However, right now any Republican who runs here would win. Even someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene who I considered. Former Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan runs here and ends up winning a narrow primary race against a MAGA backed election denier, before going on to a big win in the general election

I can’t see Geoff Duncan run for Senate. He left the LG office because he was sick of Trump’s craziness and has little interest in ever running for office again. I’d go with Rob Woodall making a comeback here.

Thinking about it again, I agreed. I made the change.
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« Reply #143 on: March 04, 2023, 02:04:40 PM »


District 44: Southern Ridge and Valley
Population: 3,204,442 (-3.32%)
States: Georgia (100%)
Largest City: Sandy Springs, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+14
Biden/Trump: 40.05%-58.49%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +9.56%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +7.20%
Demographics: 59% White, 14% Hispanic, 16% Black, 9% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district is centered around the northern suburbs and exurbs of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. This only provides about 83% of the population needed, so I also added a large portion of Northwest Georgia including the Dalton and Rome areas for an additional 423,455 people.

2022 Election: Bob Christian (D-Dawsonville, GA) vs Geoff Duncan (R-Cumming, GA)
Explanation: Today this district is Safe Republican, but it won’t be in the near future. That 9.5 point swing to the Democrats was the second largest pro-Democratic swing in the country. Given the rapid diversifying growth in this region, I do not see how a Democrat doesn’t win here by the end of the decade. However, right now any Republican who runs here would win. Even someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene who I considered. Former Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan runs here and ends up winning a narrow primary race against a MAGA backed election denier, before going on to a big win in the general election

I can’t see Geoff Duncan run for Senate. He left the LG office because he was sick of Trump’s craziness and has little interest in ever running for office again. I’d go with Rob Woodall making a comeback here.

Thinking about it again, I agreed. I made the change.

I was considering both Kelly Loeffler and Karen Handel but I feel both are damaged goods at this point. And I can't imagine Rich McCormick go for the senate seat rather than new new open GA-06.

Do you think Barry Loudermilk could have worked too?
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« Reply #144 on: March 06, 2023, 07:43:00 AM »

Might as well try out a project myself of 35 about equally populated Senate Districts with 3 Senators each (1 per class per District), spanning the existing 50 states along with DC and PR. If anything comes from it, I will make it its own thread. Of course this would mean 105 Senators total, an increase of 5.
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« Reply #145 on: March 08, 2023, 01:47:47 PM »



District 45: Greater Atlanta
Population: 3,216,141 (-2.97%)
States: Georgia (100%)
Largest City: Atlanta, Georgia
Cook PVI: D+19
Biden/Trump: 71.38%-27.49%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +6.20%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +3.84%
Demographics: 31% White, 11% Hispanic, 53% Black, 5% Asian, 2% Native
VRA Demographics: 34% White, 9% Hispanic, 51% Black, 5% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The goal here was to create a majority Black district located in the southern half of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. All of the counties that are in the lower part of the metro area are included in addition to the bottom two thirds of Fulton County, the lower half of Cobb County, and an arm into Gwinnett County that grabs the most diverse precincts in that county.

2022 Election: Raphael Warnock (D-Decatur, GA) vs Christian Zimm (R-Atlanta, GA)
Explanation: Both Senator Warnock and Senator Ossoff live in this district, but it’s pretty obvious Senator Ossoff would step aside (maybe run for Governor in 2026?) and allow Senator Warnock to keep serving here. Warnock would then go on to win the general election in a landslide.
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« Reply #146 on: March 08, 2023, 02:13:09 PM »



District 46: Wiregrass Country & Panhandle
Population: 3,419,629 (+3.17%)
States: Alabama (36.59%), Florida (34.48%) and Georgia (28.94%)
Largest City: Montgomery, Alabama
Cook PVI: R+15
Biden/Trump: 36.94%-61.84%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.12%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.24%
Demographics: 61% White, 6% Hispanic, 29% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district started with what was left in Georgia in the southern part of the state. I then added the panhandle region from Florida from just a bit west of Gainesville all the way to Pensacola. It then needed a bit more so I grabbed a chunk of Southeastern Alabama. As the drawing process moved on, I had to move Pensacola and Escambia County into a neighboring district for population reasons and as such I had to move this district further into Eastern Alabama.

2022 Election: Rebekah Jones (D-Gulf Breeze, FL) vs Tommy Tuberville (R-Auburn, AL)
Explanation: Both Katie Britt and Tommy Tuberville live in this district. In a direct primary I think Britt would get the slight edge, but with Tuberville being an incumbent already for two years, I do not think she would challenge him. Tuberville then goes on and wins the general election by a large margin.
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« Reply #147 on: March 10, 2023, 12:05:25 AM »



District 47: Mississippi River Delta
Population: 3,358,492 (1.33%)
States: Arkansas (3.51%), Louisiana (39.58%), Mississippi (35.35%) and Tennessee (21.56%)
Largest City: Memphis, Tennessee
Cook PVI: D+10
Biden/Trump: 60.93%-37.44%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.56%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.80%
Demographics: 37% White, 6% Hispanic, 53% Black, 2% Asian, 1% Native
VRA Demographics: 40% White, 6% Hispanic, 51% Black, 2% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The hope here was to draw a majority black voting age population district centered in the Mississippi Delta region of Mississippi. This is possible if you combine the CIty of Memphis, the western Half of Mississippi, the river counties in Arkansas, the extreme northeastern counties of Louisiana, most of the Baton Rouge Metropolitan Area, and the City of New Orleans. Unlike most of the other districts I’ve drawn, keeping metro areas together was not the top priority, but I was able to keep all the cities together and the remainder of the Baton Rouge, Jackon, Memphis, and New Orleans Metropolitan Areas were the bulk of other southern based districts.

2022 Election: Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton, MS) vs Charlotte Bergmann (R-Memphis, TN)
Explanation: With this district being pretty evenly split between Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee it is possible there could be a very contentious primary here on the Democratic side. However, I think Rep. Bennie Thompson’s chairing of the Select Committee on the January 6 Attack would be a major springboard that he could parlay into a successful campaign in this district. He would go on to win the general election, but by a slightly smaller than expected margin as Democrats did not do as well as they typically do in this region in 2022.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #148 on: March 10, 2023, 12:19:25 AM »



District 48: Northern Chicagoland
Population: 3,155,629 (-4.79%)
States: Illinois (94.64%) and Wisconsin (5.36%)
Largest City: North Side of Chicago, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+14
Biden/Trump: 64.29%-33.90%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +0.86%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +1.50%
Demographics: 62% White, 17% Hispanic, 7% Black, 13% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The northern third of the Chicago Metropolitan Area makes up this district. This includes 30% of the City of Chicago, the northern third of Cook County, Lake County, McHenry County, and Kenosha County in Wisconsin. This is the last district in the Chicago Metropolitan Area, which makes up three Senate districts nearly perfectly.

2022 Election: Tammy Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates, IL) vs Kathy Salvi (R-Mundelein, IL)
Explanation: Senator Duckworth lives in this very Democratic district. She would face no real competition here in both the primary and in the general election.
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« Reply #149 on: March 10, 2023, 11:46:45 AM »



District 49: Driftless Area & Northwoods
Population: 3,365,067 (+1.53%)
States: Illinois (0.65%), Iowa (20.26%), Minnesota (11.37%) and Wisconsin (67.72%)
Largest City: Madison, Wisconsin
Cook PVI: R+0
Biden/Trump: 50.98%-47.11%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +1.59%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.78%
Demographics: 85% White, 5% Hispanic, 4% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district was formed out of what was left in Wisconsin after the creation of Northern Chicagoland district and the to be discussed Western Lake Michigan Shoreline district. From there the remaining third of the district came from Northeastern Iowa and Southwestern Iowa. These areas also have geographical similarities to the Wisconsin portion of this seat. Jo Daviess County, Illinois was added for aesthetic purposes, as this district looked bad without it. 

2022 Election: Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison, WI) vs Sean Duffy (R-Weston, WI)
Explanation: The midterm results here in 2022 were Democrats winning by about 5.5 points, a small swing in their favor compared to 2020. As previously mentioned, this is one of the tipping point seats, critical to both parties in their attempts to take the majority in the Senate. Based on her past performances, I could see Senator Baldwin winning here in the high single digits. Republicans would still draw a solid challenger, even though most of the power players in the Wisconsin Republican party live in the eastern part of the state. I decided to go with former Rep. Sean Duffy.
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