Ford Assassinated 1975; Nelson Rockefeller, President '75-'77

[pragmatic liberal]

As many of you are aware, Gerald Ford was nearly escaped an assassination attempt in the fall of 1975.

Let's do a what-if scenario that imagines Ford being killed.

The country would have had 3 presidents in under two years; Nelson Rockefeller, like Ford, an appointed Vice President, would have become president.

How would this have impacted American political history? I imagine that Rockefeller would have been challenged for the Republican nomination in 1976 by Ronald Reagan. Would Rockefeller have been able to politically survive a Reagan challenge? Given that Ford nearly lost to Reagan, would Rockefeller, who was much more distrusted by the GOP's conservative wing, been toast?

I imagine that if Reagan won the nomination from Rockfeller, Carter (assuming he still emerged as the Democratic nominee) would probably have won. Reagan was simply viewed as too much of a radical at the time. Would this have meant that Ronald Reagan was finished as a presidential candidate, or would he, like Nixon, have been a repeat nominee 4 years later - meaning history unfolds exactly as it did in real life?

Or if Rockefeller retained the nomination - and assuming he survived instead of dying in 1979 - would he have won the subsequent election? Does this also mean no Reagan?

What's a plausible scenario for President Nelson Rockefeller?

[True Democrat]

Rockefeller wins with sympathy vote (though not nearly what Johnson got).  The South goes big for Carter though.



344-194

Maybe I've simplified the North-South divide too much, but oh well.

[johnpressman]

Interesting scenario.  If Ford had been killed or incapacitated by one of the two assasination attempts, how would the 1976 elections have played out?

Aside from Rockefeller and Reagan, would other GOP candidates have entered the race, such as Howard Baker, Eliott Richardson  or Bob Dole?

Reagan would have won the GOP nomination, either one-on-one against Rocky or beating a crowded field.  As for the general election, I do believe Carter would have won in 1976 against Reagan.  The 1980 election presented a unique set of circumstances which resulted in a hard-line Republican Conservative  defeating  a sitting President.  As for Reagan running AGAIN in 1980 against Carter and winning, given the series of events in that year, I do believe that would have been a possibilty.

[AndrewTX]

Rockefeller wins with sympathy vote (though not nearly what Johnson got).  The South goes big for Carter though.



344-194

Maybe I've simplified the North-South divide too much, but oh well.

 That looks about right.  I think that Rockefeller, like Carter, would have been able to capitlize on being someone who isn't from Washington, and be able to
brush aside any issues during the Nixon administration.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Rockefeller would beat Carter by such a ridiculous margin its not funny.

[johnpressman]

NO WAY does Rocky EVER win the GOP nomination.  After his divorce and remarrige in 1962, Rocky was TOAST as a national GOP candidiate!  Adding to the aforementioned scandal was Rocky's big-spending big-government policies as Governor of New York State.  after 1964, the Conservative, Western/Southern axis dominated the party over the previous more Liberal Eastern Establishment (Dewey, Warren, Eisenhower).  Rocky's appearance before the 1964 Republican Convention where his speech was drowned out by catcalls showed how reviled he was by the party faithful.   

Rocky was put forward as a caretaker VP for Ford, resigning as Governor to end his political career as the only appointed VP.  There was never any serious consideration given to him running for President or even Vice President, Ford chose Dole, from the Conservative wing of the party.

Should Rocky SOMEHOW win the GOP nomination, he would get shut out in the South and Border States as a New York Liberal running aginst hometown boy Carter.  He MIGHT win NY, NJ and CT, but would face tough sledding in the Midwest and West as the rank and file Conservative Repubican voters would stay home.  After 8 years of Nixon, Watergate and the subsequent pardon, the economy in recession, high unemployment and inflation worries, 1976 was going to be a Democratic year.

[Reaganfan]

1976:

President Rockefeller secures the Republican Nomination in a battle against California Governor Ronald Reagan. Rockefeller selects Nevada Senator and Former Governor Paul Laxalt as his running mate.

The democrats nominate outsider Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter, and he selects Minnesota Senator Walter Mondale as his running mate.

President Rockefeller and Senator Laxalt defeat Governor Carter and Senator Mondale by a sizeable margin.

Rockefeller/Laxalt: 341
Carter/Mondale: 197

1979
President Rockefeller dies of a heart attack while in the White House. Vice President Laxalt is sworn in as the 40th President of the United States. The nation mourns the loss of Nelson Rockefeller, and President Laxalt announces he will seek the Republican Nomination in 1980. Laxalt calls on Former U.N. Ambassador George Bush as the new Vice President. The Senate does not confirm him, so President Laxalt calls on New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici and the Senate confirms him after party politics throughout Washington on the confirmation.

1980
President Laxalt announces that he and Vice President Domenici will run for the Republican Nomination. Former California Governor Ronald Reagan also announces his intention. After a poor showing in the New Hampshire primary, the Laxalt/Domenici ticket calls it quits and the momentum and nomination goes to Reagan. Governor Reagan chooses controversial running mate George Bush and goes into the general election.

The democratic nomination was in battle with a large field, including former Presidential candidate Jimmy Carter, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, and Florida Governor Reubin Askew. Askew secures the nomination and selects California Senator Alan Cranston as his running mate.

On election day, the Reagan/Bush ticket solidly defeats the Askew/Cranston ticket.

Reagan/Bush: 438
Askew/Cranston: 100

History goes on as normal after that. So, the timeline would be:

37th: Richard Nixon (1969-1974)
38th: Gerald Ford (1974-1975)
39th: Nelson Rockefeller (1975-1979)
40th: Paul Laxalt (1979-1981)
41st: Ronald Reagan (1981-1989)
42nd: George Bush (1989-1993)
43rd: Bill Clinton (1993-2001)
44th: George W. Bush (2001-2009)

[True Democrat]

How does Carter lose Minnesota but win Iowa?

[bullmoose88]

How does Carter lose Minnesota but win Iowa?

Nasobastion fantasy.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Naso - your timeline has some serious issues.

1. Why would G.H.W. Bush have trouble getting confirmed by the Senate while Domenci coasts by? G.H.W. Bush was well liked and respected in the late '70s and was admired for staying neutral as CIA Director during the '76 camapign.

2. Laxalt would be a great running mate for Rocky - I'll agree with that however, there would never have been a challenge by Reagan on Laxalt.  Reagan and Laxalt were close friends as far back as 1963 and both helped each other on their camapigns. They both owe their political successes to each other.

3.  How could Reagan win MA, NY, WV, IA and MN? He hardly won them against Carter.

4. Finally - I can't see the GOP in control of the White House for 24 years. It was a fluke for the Dems to have it for 20 years (1533-1953) 'cause Dewey should have beaten Truman in '48 but that's another debate.

[Gabu]

4. Finally - I can't see the GOP in control of the White House for 24 years. It was a fluke for the Dems to have it for 20 years (1533-1953) 'cause Dewey should have beaten Truman in '48 but that's another debate.

The #1 rule for Naso timelines is that the Republicans must never, ever lose an election, ever.