Prodi hands in resignation

[Colin]

Unless the Communist parties abstain he wont lose.

You mean the hardliners who splintered off the old PCI, rather than DS?

Yes, Communist Refoundation and Party of Italian Communists.

[Keystone Phil]

He's likely to survive (as of now he has 158 supporters to the opposition's 156) - http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070225/wl_nm/italy_dc


But let's hope for an upset. 

Unless the Communist parties abstain he wont lose.

I figured that much. They're worried that defections, leading to new elections, could mean Berlusconi is back so it's not worth it for them to abandon Prodi.

What are the chances, though, that some of the Christian Dems that make up Prodi's coalition abstain?

[ag]

What are the chances, though, that some of the Christian Dems that make up Prodi's coalition abstain?

Somewhat lower than that some of the Christian Dems that are not with him would vote for him (though, for the moment, that one isn't high either). Don't forget, Prodi was a CD most of his life, until the old system collapsed. Even though this did not happen this time, I would not be shocked if before or at the next election the (bulk of the) UDC does switch sides.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is Prodi's margin of support so narrow anyway? I thought the winning coalition automatically got 55% of the seats now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

His problem is the Senate

[bullmoose88]

His problem is the Senate

I'm trying to think of other parliamentary systems where the leader of the lower house, the PM, is accountable to a vote in the upper chamber (i think I've worded that right)...Italy, Australia...anywhere else? (Can the upper chamber force anything in Germany?)

[Colin]

His problem is the Senate

I'm trying to think of other parliamentary systems where the leader of the lower house, the PM, is accountable to a vote in the upper chamber (i think I've worded that right)...Italy, Australia...anywhere else? (Can the upper chamber force anything in Germany?)

Not Australia. The PM isn't elected or responsible to the Senate in Australia, IIRC, he is only elected by the House of Representatives.

[bullmoose88]

His problem is the Senate

I'm trying to think of other parliamentary systems where the leader of the lower house, the PM, is accountable to a vote in the upper chamber (i think I've worded that right)...Italy, Australia...anywhere else? (Can the upper chamber force anything in Germany?)

Not Australia. The PM isn't elected or responsible to the Senate in Australia, IIRC, he is only elected by the House of Representatives.

But didnt the AU senate force the fall of a govt?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They blocked supply. What did for Whitlam was a coup by the Governer General.

[minionofmidas]

His problem is the Senate

I'm trying to think of other parliamentary systems where the leader of the lower house, the PM, is accountable to a vote in the upper chamber (i think I've worded that right)...Italy, Australia...anywhere else? (Can the upper chamber force anything in Germany?)

They can prevent anything but peacemeal legislation from passing, but that's it.

[Keystone Phil]

Casa della Liberta leads in the latest polls...



1,917 adults were polled with a MoE of 2.5%

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/14855

[Keystone Phil]

Confidence vote by the Senate will be held on Wednesday. Prodi has 162 votes to the oppositions 156. Two Senators are undecided.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aHg3WWDZgvkI

[SPQR]

He's likely to survive (as of now he has 158 supporters to the opposition's 156) - http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070225/wl_nm/italy_dc


But let's hope for an upset. 

Unless the Communist parties abstain he wont lose.

I figured that much. They're worried that defections, leading to new elections, could mean Berlusconi is back so it's not worth it for them to abandon Prodi.

What are the chances, though, that some of the Christian Dems that make up Prodi's coalition abstain?

Absolutely none.The only problem,right now,is one communist senator,one of those 2 who didn't vote last Wednesday though causing all of this mess.
And,for the poll,I think it's normal for the CdL to lead right now...Prodi had to resign,something which is not exactly well-seen by electors...and,anyway,that margin is smaller than that of the Unione before last April's elections.

[Keystone Phil]

and,anyway,that margin is smaller than that of the Unione before last April's elections.

L'Unione had pretty much the exact same margin (except they were up four obviously) going into the elections.

[SPQR]

and,anyway,that margin is smaller than that of the Unione before last April's elections.

L'Unione had pretty much the exact same margin (except they were up four obviously) going into the elections.

Unione was leading 52-47 in every single poll before the elections.Then,with Berlusconi's "miracle" (or attempted steal) we only won by 20,000 votes in the lower house.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There likely won't be new elections for quite awhile, so I wouldn't put too much stock into current polls.

Prodi will almost certainly win the confidence vote and remain PM after all, and even when he goes his replacement will likely be someone else from L'Unione.

[Keystone Phil]

and,anyway,that margin is smaller than that of the Unione before last April's elections.

L'Unione had pretty much the exact same margin (except they were up four obviously) going into the elections.

Unione was leading 52-47 in every single poll before the elections.Then,with Berlusconi's "miracle" (or attempted steal) we only won by 20,000 votes in the lower house.

It wasn't literally every single poll but 52-47 is basically the same as being ahead 51-47.

There likely won't be new elections for quite awhile, so I wouldn't put too much stock into current polls.

Prodi will almost certainly win the confidence vote and remain PM after all, and even when he goes his replacement will likely be someone else from L'Unione.

If he somehow loses Wednesday, aren't new elections guarenteed to take place?

[SPQR]

and,anyway,that margin is smaller than that of the Unione before last April's elections.

L'Unione had pretty much the exact same margin (except they were up four obviously) going into the elections.

Unione was leading 52-47 in every single poll before the elections.Then,with Berlusconi's "miracle" (or attempted steal) we only won by 20,000 votes in the lower house.

It wasn't literally every single poll but 52-47 is basically the same as being ahead 51-47.

There likely won't be new elections for quite awhile, so I wouldn't put too much stock into current polls.

Prodi will almost certainly win the confidence vote and remain PM after all, and even when he goes his replacement will likely be someone else from L'Unione.

If he somehow loses Wednesday, aren't new elections guarenteed to take place?

He lead by 5 points or more in EVERY poll before the elections...except Berlusconi's,of course.
And he is DEFINITELY going to win,right now 163 senators support him,and he only needs 158.

[angus]

What is it with this Berlusconi admiration among American conservatives anyway?

He gives really nice backrubs. 




And as you Germans know, we like that in a politician.

[Keystone Phil]

He lead by 5 points or more in EVERY poll before the elections...except Berlusconi's,of course.

Which is basically the same amount that Casa della Liberta leads by right now. There is really no difference in being up by four points or five points.

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The last I read had him with 159. I never thought it was likely that Prodi would fail in this vote though. I said I was hoping for an upset and I still am. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If he somehow loses Wednesday, aren't new elections guarenteed to take place?

yes, but he's not going to lose.

I also wonder if American conservatives who praise Berlusconi for sending troops to Iraq will give any accolades to Prodi, considering he lost that vote trying to the help the US.

[Keystone Phil]

I also wonder if American conservatives who praise Berlusconi for sending troops to Iraq will give any accolades to Prodi, considering he lost that vote trying to the help the US.

I do give credit to Prodi for that but, overall, I still dislike him.

[Keystone Phil]

Thanks to that, and to the backing of un-elected life senators, Prodi is expected to win Wednesday's vote by 164 votes to 157. The result should be known by 10 p.m. (2100 GMT).

http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/international/ticker/detail/Prodi_looks_set_to_win_confidence_vote.html?siteSect=143&sid=7571207&cKey=1172621256000

[Middle-aged Europe]

What is it with this Berlusconi admiration among American conservatives anyway?

He gives really nice backrubs. 




And as you Germans know, we like that in a politician.

LOL

[Keystone Phil]

40% want Prodi to stay as PM. 39% think Prodi's government will last a few months while 22% think he'll remain as PM for a year or two.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070228/wl_nm/italy_dc_2