Simulate presidential election results during midterm elections from 1994 to 2022.
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  Simulate presidential election results during midterm elections from 1994 to 2022.
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Author Topic: Simulate presidential election results during midterm elections from 1994 to 2022.  (Read 1226 times)
Plankton5165
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« on: February 05, 2023, 02:37:39 PM »
« edited: February 05, 2023, 02:52:28 PM by Plankton5165 »

There were no presidential elections in midterm years. But, what if they were?

Also, let's say these are the candidates of each presidential election:
1994: Bill Clinton (D-AR) vs. George (A. 43) (R-TX) or Jeb Bush (R-FL) (pick one Republican!)
1998: Bill Clinton (D-AR) vs. Peter Fitzgerald (R-IL) vs. Jesse Ventura (I-MN)
2002: George Bush (R-TX) vs. Max Baucus (D-MT)
2006: George Bush (R-TX) vs. Jim Webb (D-VA)
2010: Barack Obama (D-IL) vs. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)
2014: Barack Obama (D-IL) vs. Tom Cotton (R-AR)
2018: Donald Trump (R-NY) vs. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
2022: Joe Biden (D-DE) vs. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

A. 43 meaning actual 43. George Bush is actual 43rd president. In 1994, I was referring to the son of Bush 41, not the father George Bush.

And make sure 2010 uses the ECs of 2004 and 2008. (e.g. Ohio had 20 EVs in 2004 and 2008, and also has 20 EVs in 2010. '94 and '98 will use the 1990 census, '02, '06, and '10 use 2000, '14 and '18 use 2010, and '22 uses 2020, because e.g. '00 uses 1990 and '20 uses 2010, but '92 uses 1990 and '12 uses 2010 as well).

Also notice that in 2010, a girl is the Republican nominee, so there could be a female President.
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2023, 11:55:03 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2023, 08:10:45 PM by Plankton5165 »

I happen to have managed to make my own predictions for each year.

1994: Bill Clinton (D) vs. George W. Bush (R)



Bush 276, Clinton 262

1994 was a good year for the Republicans. Bush pulls off a similar victory to 2000 and 2004, and also loses states here that he lost both times like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

1998: Bill Clinton (D) vs. Peter Fitzgerald (R) vs. Jesse Ventura (I)



Fitzgerald 282, Clinton 256

Ventura wouldn't damage the Republican nominee Clinton faced off against in the way Perot did IRL. He's from Minnesota, a constantly Democratic state.

2002: Max Baucus (D) vs. George W. Bush (R)



Baucus 232, Bush 306

Baucus has won senate elections several times. He likes to win them in landslides. I gave Bush Wisconsin because of his love for cheeseburger pizza, and Wisconsin has, well... cheese!

2006: Jim Webb (D) vs. George W. Bush (R)



Webb 349, Bush 189

Bush's approval rating tanked since 2004, and his responses to Hurricane Katrina were atrocious. IRL, we did elect a Democrat easily for a president-elect since 1988.

2010: Barack Obama (D) vs. Kelly Ayotte (R)



Obama 221, Ayotte 317

Republicans ought to have enjoyed many net gains in congressional elections. Here we would have a female president elect!

2014: Barack Obama (D) vs. Tom Cotton (R)



Obama 206, Cotton 332

Reciprocal year!

And also, another year of Republicans accumulating serious net gains. Obama had two really bad midterm elections for him. He should've been thankful that presidential terms last for four years and not two.

2018: Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)



Brown 259, Trump 279

2018 would be a huge tossup, like in the 2000 level. The deciding state would be Pennsylvania. Without PA, Trump is at 259, and Brown is also at 259. I predict Trump would win PA by 0.01% or 0.02%. To be honest, I usually decide who'd win all states in one election before moving on to the next, but PA 2018, was so close that before I decided who'd win that, I ended up completing this next election, the 2022 election.

2022: Joe Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)



Biden 211, Rubio 327

Biden and Harris have atrocious approval ratings. I know I just picked out senator elects, but in 2016, Rubio actually was a senate elect before running for President that very same year and then dropping out. While he was in the running, polls were conducted as if he were to go head-to-head against Clinton or Sanders, and he was leading in a lot of them. I was pretty much used to seeing him lead. Also, Rubio talked really fast in the 2016 Republican primary debates, so that's got to increase his chances of winning.

If you notice, the Republicans would win a lot. What can be said if they're so lucky? They kept having good years, while IRL, the Republicans have only won the popular vote once since 1988! Both midterm years while Obama was president were wonderful for them. He must've gotten lucky in 2012.
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