ABC/Wapo: Trump +3

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This is actually very similar to the midterm generic ballot, but we do not know how this translates to swing states. Rs won the generic ballot by 2.8 in the midterms (1.6 once adjusting for uncontested races), but lost MI, and would've probably lost PA too without Fitzpatrick and Doyle's overperformances.

They would also only win AZ/WI by 2 and NV by about 3 (NV is probably also skewed by Amodei's overperformance, probably goes to <1 without). This would be quite precarious as if this were an electoral college map they were only 1 of AZ/WI from losing even with a 3 point popular vote lead.

RS haven't learned yet about WI, AZ and NV Evers, Hobbs, CCM won so no it does not translate into R wins

Lake was a horrible candidate and Evers/CCM were slightly boosted by incumbency. Governor races, especially with incumbents, often still defy partisanship of the state (ie Laura Kelly, Phil Scott). Also it seems like Republican Senator candidates were in general punished compared to their house counterparts due to Dobbs (and the fact that the Senate votes on Supreme Court nominees). The house is probably a better baseline, though imperfect because of uncontested races/some candidate specific ones (ie Fitzpatrick).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ABC HAD RS AHEAD ON THE GCB 49/45 at any rate do you know what RS stand for they cut taxes for the rich that's why they can't win Labor states like MI, WI and PA they only win in the S in TX and FL due to SCOTUS gerrymandering Johnson won but Evers did too because of Kavanaugh gerrymandering the WI district

RS haven't won WI, PA andI since 2016 7 yrs and it split vote on Gary Johnson with Hillary

[BG-NY]

ABC HAD RS AHEAD ON THE GCB 49/45 at any rate do you know what RS stand for they cut taxes for the rich that's why they can't win Labor states like MI, WI and PA they only win in the S in TX and FL due to SCOTUS gerrymandering Johnson won but Evers did too because of Kavanaugh gerrymandering the WI district

RS haven't won WI, PA andI since 2016 7 yrs and it split vote on Gary Johnson with Hillary

And they won 50.6-47.8.

[DrScholl]

Trump getting 19% of Black voters in this poll should tell you that it's not credible. Even if you actually believe that it doesn't even square with a 3% lead that has White voters voting almost identical to 2020. If he was really getting that much of the Black vote he'd be up more than 3.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Trump getting 19% of Black voters in this poll should tell you that it's not credible. Even if you actually believe that it doesn't even square with a 3% lead that has White voters voting almost identical to 2020. If he was really getting that much of the Black vote he'd be up more than 3.

Crosstabs have very high sampling variance. Also, polls typically underestimate landslides as there are probably some people who randomly respond.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ABC HAD RS AHEAD ON THE GCB 49/45 at any rate do you know what RS stand for they cut taxes for the rich that's why they can't win Labor states like MI, WI and PA they only win in the S in TX and FL due to SCOTUS gerrymandering Johnson won but Evers did too because of Kavanaugh gerrymandering the WI district

RS haven't won WI, PA andI since 2016 7 yrs and it split vote on Gary Johnson with Hillary

And they won 50.6-47.8.

Your wrong they won the H PVI but lost the S and G PVI 49(48 I know that for a fact

Sorry to tell you that ABC poll was wrong, they still lost WI, PA, MI there wasn't any VA race at all so that skewed the PVI

The Senate map in my signature ensures the D's will keep the Blue wall Casey, Kaine, Baldwin, Rosen, and Slotkin aren't losing and WI R always underperforming in WI whenever Scott Walker or Ron Johnson aren't on the ballot Baldwin won in 2018 by 10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do I believe this poll no it's taken 6 mnths after we voted but it clearly is a neutral Environment anyways, it looks very similar to what we just did in Nov 22 which solidifies the Blue wall we did very well in MI state legislature and PA H we will win somemore WI state legislature seats not to be the majority and we have supermajority in NY, IL and CA state legislature

Obviously, TX, FL and Deep S have super R majorities but the only gotten a 5 seat H majority and 1 is already gone with Tom Suozzi def of Santos so it's 221/213, Green is retiring that's 220/214 we only need 3 more

[Vosem]

This is actually very similar to the midterm generic ballot, but we do not know how this translates to swing states. Rs won the generic ballot by 2.8 in the midterms (1.6 once adjusting for uncontested races), but lost MI, and would've probably lost PA too without Fitzpatrick and Doyle's overperformances.

They would also only win AZ/WI by 2 and NV by about 3 (NV is probably also skewed by Amodei's overperformance, probably goes to <1 without). This would be quite precarious as if this were an electoral college map they were only 1 of AZ/WI from losing even with a 3 point popular vote lead.

PA would've been lost without the overperformances, and NV/WI would've been skin of their teeth -- like a point in each state -- but AZ and GA would've both been surprisingly comfortable, like 6-7 points each for 'generic' candidates that weren't involved in weird scandals.

So NV doesn't matter, then, because WI is enough to give either side a win. Would be kind of anti-climactic if 2024 is the third straight election in a row decided by WI, since that was the case in both 2016/2020. Though my guess is that if Trump is actually nominated trends in the Sun Belt would be unfavorable and either AZ or GA is likelier to be the decisive state, with WI as a right-of-tipping-point sine qua non.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI isn't going R the RS don't have a challenge to Tammy Baldwin and she beat Tommy Thompson and she won her race already by 10 pts last time and Gallagher is still on the H and hasn't changed no one yet

The idea that Baldwin is so weak is silly she beat Tommy Thompson

[Crackerjack McJohnson]

Trump 48%
Biden 45%

Men: Trump 54 - Biden 38
Female: Biden 52 - Trump 44
Independents: Trump 50 - Biden 41
18-39 year olds: Trump 52 - Biden 43
Whites: Trump 58 - Biden 37
Blacks: Biden 76 - Trump 19

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/05/poll-biden-trump-2024/

The death knell.  Our country's patriots want a big, strong man to protect them... to HOLD them and tell them everything is going to be okay. 

[BG-NY]

Trump 48%
Biden 45%

Men: Trump 54 - Biden 38
Female: Biden 52 - Trump 44
Independents: Trump 50 - Biden 41
18-39 year olds: Trump 52 - Biden 43
Whites: Trump 58 - Biden 37
Blacks: Biden 76 - Trump 19

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/05/poll-biden-trump-2024/

The death knell.  Our country's patriots want a big, strong man to protect them... to HOLD them and tell them everything is going to be okay. 

Wut

[Crackerjack McJohnson]

Trump 48%
Biden 45%

Men: Trump 54 - Biden 38
Female: Biden 52 - Trump 44
Independents: Trump 50 - Biden 41
18-39 year olds: Trump 52 - Biden 43
Whites: Trump 58 - Biden 37
Blacks: Biden 76 - Trump 19

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/05/poll-biden-trump-2024/

The death knell.  Our country's patriots want a big, strong man to protect them... to HOLD them and tell them everything is going to be okay. 

Wut

Bigly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People think Trump is gonna win and he mounted an insurrection and we already voted against him 2*all his candidates lost in 22 and there is another poll that has Biden plus 4 over TRUMP

[wbrocks67]

Trump getting 19% of Black voters in this poll should tell you that it's not credible. Even if you actually believe that it doesn't even square with a 3% lead that has White voters voting almost identical to 2020. If he was really getting that much of the Black vote he'd be up more than 3.

Crosstabs have very high sampling variance. Also, polls typically underestimate landslides as there are probably some people who randomly respond.

The larger issue here is that there are certain crosstabs that are *consistently* wrong which speaks to bigger issues in terms of who the pollster is sampling. Pollsters -even the nonpartisan ones- largely continue to have major issues with minorities and young voters.