Biggest military upset ever?
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Author Topic: Biggest military upset ever?  (Read 2342 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« on: February 04, 2023, 04:18:27 PM »

I would say the 1940 fall of France is it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2023, 04:25:37 PM »

I tend to only count those where both sides had comparable military technologies.  Using that criterion I would say Agincourt in 1415
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2023, 04:32:43 PM »

In Chinese history, I would say

昆陽之戰(Battle of Kunyang) 23AD which was the founding battle of the East Han Dynasty
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kunyang

淝水之戰(Battle of Feishui) 383AD which rescued the Eastern Jin dynasty and led to the fall of the Early Chin dynasty
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Fei_River

The main problem of both battles is that the size of the losing army was exaggerated by the winning side for political reasons and on top of that not all the forces of the losing side were actually deployed for battle.  Still, both were for sure considered big upsets even if not on the same scale as claimed by the history books written by the winning side.
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gerritcole
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« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2023, 08:02:55 PM »

Emu victory over Australia
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2023, 08:42:12 PM »

I'm not comfortable with 'upset' as that's using the language of sport and that's just not appropriate. Though very few events in all Military History have been as utterly shocking as the Fall of France, that's true enough.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2023, 09:41:42 PM »

Specific battles: The Russian defeat in Ukraine in early 2022, the Battle of Assaye in 1803,
the battle of Yamuk in 636, the battle of Teutoburg Forest in 9 A.D. ,the battle of Platea in 479 B.C.

All other battles or wars featured both sides that were theoretically quite capable ( insurgencies, rebellions, revolutions, civil wars excluded ).


On greater wars: the Mongol, Muslim and Macedonian campaigns are the top 3, although Macedon didn't quite come out of nowhere.


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oldtimer
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2023, 09:54:44 PM »

I'm not comfortable with 'upset' as that's using the language of sport and that's just not appropriate. Though very few events in all Military History have been as utterly shocking as the Fall of France, that's true enough.
The outcome wasn't shocking at the time, theoretically Germany would have beaten France at any time on a straight one to one, and there was no french-russian alliance, french morale was always low in the run up to that war for those reasons.

It was the speed, although wars always tend to be fast moving when they begin and end.
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« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2023, 01:31:41 PM »

I'm not comfortable with 'upset' as that's using the language of sport and that's just not appropriate. Though very few events in all Military History have been as utterly shocking as the Fall of France, that's true enough.
The outcome wasn't shocking at the time, theoretically Germany would have beaten France at any time on a straight one to one, and there was no french-russian alliance, french morale was always low in the run up to that war for those reasons.

It was the speed, although wars always tend to be fast moving when they begin and end.
In WW1, it would make full sense for Germany to have beaten France in a 1 vs 1. However, in WW2, it would not have made sense, as France was much stronger all around as of 1940, yet it lost anyways due to sheer incompetence.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2023, 08:01:01 PM »

I'm not comfortable with 'upset' as that's using the language of sport and that's just not appropriate. Though very few events in all Military History have been as utterly shocking as the Fall of France, that's true enough.
The outcome wasn't shocking at the time, theoretically Germany would have beaten France at any time on a straight one to one, and there was no french-russian alliance, french morale was always low in the run up to that war for those reasons.

It was the speed, although wars always tend to be fast moving when they begin and end.
In WW1, it would make full sense for Germany to have beaten France in a 1 vs 1. However, in WW2, it would not have made sense, as France was much stronger all around as of 1940, yet it lost anyways due to sheer incompetence.
France was far weaker in 1940 than in 1914.
WW1 France was called the "Arsenal of Democracy" because they became the bulk of allied war production and manpower, by WW2 France was bankrupt and had a manpower shortage.

Germany was far stronger in 1940 than in 1914.
They absorbed the best bits of the old Austrian Empire and had solved the agricultural crisis that plagued the Central Powers during the blockade of WW1.

Ideology also played a role, unlike in WW1 a lot of frenchmen looked upon Hitler as their ideological leader, while the Kaiser was just a generic king, so french patriotism was weaker.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2023, 08:05:23 PM »

I'm not comfortable with 'upset' as that's using the language of sport and that's just not appropriate. Though very few events in all Military History have been as utterly shocking as the Fall of France, that's true enough.
The outcome wasn't shocking at the time, theoretically Germany would have beaten France at any time on a straight one to one, and there was no french-russian alliance, french morale was always low in the run up to that war for those reasons.

It was the speed, although wars always tend to be fast moving when they begin and end.
In WW1, it would make full sense for Germany to have beaten France in a 1 vs 1. However, in WW2, it would not have made sense, as France was much stronger all around as of 1940, yet it lost anyways due to sheer incompetence.
France was far weaker in 1940 than in 1914.
WW1 France was called the "Arsenal of Democracy" because they became the bulk of allied war production and manpower, by WW2 France was bankrupt and had a manpower shortage.

Germany was far stronger in 1940 than in 1914.
They absorbed the best bits of the old Austrian Empire and had solved the agricultural crisis that plagued the Central Powers during the blockade of WW1.

Ideology also played a role, unlike in WW1 a lot of frenchmen looked upon Hitler as their ideological leader, while the Kaiser was just a generic king, so french patriotism was weaker.


Germany was not stronger in 1940 than they were in 1914 , its just that the French resolve to fight was far less in 1940 than 1914 and they were not fighting a two front war in 1940 unlike 1914.

Keep in mind that Germany nearly made it to Paris in 1914 despite the fact that France was extremely resolved to fight and they were already fighting a two front war by then
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oldtimer
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« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2023, 08:34:37 PM »

I'm not comfortable with 'upset' as that's using the language of sport and that's just not appropriate. Though very few events in all Military History have been as utterly shocking as the Fall of France, that's true enough.
The outcome wasn't shocking at the time, theoretically Germany would have beaten France at any time on a straight one to one, and there was no french-russian alliance, french morale was always low in the run up to that war for those reasons.

It was the speed, although wars always tend to be fast moving when they begin and end.
In WW1, it would make full sense for Germany to have beaten France in a 1 vs 1. However, in WW2, it would not have made sense, as France was much stronger all around as of 1940, yet it lost anyways due to sheer incompetence.
France was far weaker in 1940 than in 1914.
WW1 France was called the "Arsenal of Democracy" because they became the bulk of allied war production and manpower, by WW2 France was bankrupt and had a manpower shortage.

Germany was far stronger in 1940 than in 1914.
They absorbed the best bits of the old Austrian Empire and had solved the agricultural crisis that plagued the Central Powers during the blockade of WW1.

Ideology also played a role, unlike in WW1 a lot of frenchmen looked upon Hitler as their ideological leader, while the Kaiser was just a generic king, so french patriotism was weaker.


Germany was not stronger in 1940 than they were in 1914 , its just that the French resolve to fight was far less in 1940 than 1914 and they were not fighting a two front war in 1940 unlike 1914.

Keep in mind that Germany nearly made it to Paris in 1914 despite the fact that France was extremely resolved to fight and they were already fighting a two front war by then
To give you a simple comparison French military spending in 1913 was about half of Germany's, in 1938 it was 1/8th.

Germany had a military spending 7 times more than America in 1938, now you know why the allies gave up in Munich, their enemy was ready for a fight and was looking for one.

WW2 only occured in 1939 because Britain had an election sceduled for 1940, and the Conservatives couldn't back down again without risking losing to Labour, who would have declared war anyway if they won the election.

Hitler couldn't understand British politics, so he was surprised when Britain threw France under the bus over undefensible Poland, which France hated anyway at the time.

So France was bound to be defeated quickly if the maginot line failed.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2023, 08:36:43 PM »

Any time Israel has ever been in a war, ever.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2023, 04:07:50 PM »

First Italo-Ethiopian war
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Cassius
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2023, 07:35:40 PM »

Both Isandlwana and Rorke’s Drift.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2023, 06:04:29 PM »

Japan vs. Russia, 1905. The Baltic Fleet being the cherry on top.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2023, 12:11:45 PM »

Myeongnyang by Yi Sun Sin has to be up there.
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Mike88
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« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2023, 12:18:30 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2023, 12:23:41 PM by Mike88 »

Portugal has a few:

- The Battle of Aljubarrota (1385) in which 6,600, or so, Portuguese soldiers were able to defeat a more than 30,000 strong Castille army.

- The navy Battle of Diu (1509): after several defeats by the Muslims fleets, Portugal annihilated the Muslims and began the European dominance of the Indian Ocean that lasted until World War 2.
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Storr
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« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2023, 02:08:14 PM »

I'm only thinking 20th Century here, but The Battle of Warsaw (1920) has to be up there. It wasn't called "the Miracle on the Vistula" for nothing.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2023, 09:30:30 PM »

I'm only thinking 20th Century here, but The Battle of Warsaw (1920) has to be up there. It wasn't called "the Miracle on the Vistula" for nothing.

Definitely a crucial moment for history as a whole but it seems both sides had somewhat equal manpower and the Poles basically had no supply line length while the Russians were at the end of their supply line.  IIRC there was a cavalry battle a week after this battle that was very lopsided and was one of the last calvary battles in history.

Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Komar%C3%B3w

Here we go. This was the last battle where it says people were still using calvary not just to move around. I assume this means they were actually shooting from their horses. The Poles were outnumbered 10:1 and inflicted insane casualties on the Soviets.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2023, 10:45:25 AM »

The Battle of Dien Bien Phu of 1954 is for sure a contender as well.
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dead0man
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« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2023, 01:53:13 AM »

The Battle of Longewala
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The Battle of Longewala (4–7 December 1971) was one of the first major engagements in the western sector during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, fought between assaulting Pakistani forces and Indian defenders at the Indian border post of Longewala, in the Thar Desert of Rajasthan state in India. The battle was fought between 120 Indian soldiers accompanied by four Hunter fighter aircraft and 2,000–3,000 Pakistani soldiers accompanied by 30–40 tanks.
the Indians lost 2 men and 5 Camels, the Pakistanis lost 200+, all 36 tanks and an additional 500 vehicles.


Battle of Rorke's Drift
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Just over 150 British and colonial troops defended the station against attacks by 3,000 to 4,000 Zulu warriors. The massive but piecemeal attacks by the Zulu on Rorke's Drift came very close to defeating the much smaller garrison, but were consistently repelled.[9] Eleven Victoria Crosses were awarded among the defenders, along with a number of other decorations and honours.
The Brits lost 17 men, the Zulu lost 350+ and 500 wounded.


the Capture of Belgrade by the Nazis
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n April 1941, Klingenberg was with SS troops taking part in the invasion of Yugoslavia. Klingenberg disobeyed orders, and decided to reconnoiter Belgrade, with his units far ahead of the main German army. Finding a boat, he crossed the river, with the intention of ferrying a sizable force across; however, the boat sank, and he was left with just six men. Klingenberg then encountered some Yugoslav troops who had captured a drunken German tourist, and captured them.

On the 11th April, after a number of firefights the six Germans, having sustained no casualties but capturing a number of Yugoslav soldiers, made it to the centre of Belgrade with the tourist and their prisoners. There they raised a German flag. The Mayor came out to meet them, after Klingenberg bluffed, telling him there was an incoming artillery barrage and an impending Luftwaffe attack. The Mayor and some garrison troops surrendered the city to them on 12 April.

At this point a few more of Klingenberg's men arrived the same way he had, and made a show of their presence, pretending that there was more of them than there were.[3] [4][5] The German army eventually arrived, dumbfounded at the situation, having made a complex plan to take the city that was no longer needed, and was expected to cost thousands of lives.[1][2][6] A few days later Yugoslavia surrendered.[1][2] Klingenberg was awarded the Knight’s Cross for capturing the city, in effect capturing Belgrade with just himself, his six soldiers and the tourist.
no dead Nazis, unclear if any dead Yugoslavs.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2023, 06:35:44 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2023, 06:39:22 PM by lfromnj »

Another battle I would say is the Battle off Samar. One factor a lot of the other battles have in a list like this is that the winning side usually had a plan before the battle and may even have set a trap to win this. The most famous example would be say Cannae by Hannibal. However Samar was unusual in that the Japanese actually managed to lay a decent trap on paper and lured away the escort carriers so effectively this battle was a well planned ambush by the Japanese. Yet by some miracle the Americans managed to beat a far superior fleet forcing them to retreat.

The Americans only had a few destroyers and escort carriers which were slower and smaller aircraft carriers meant to really be behind a fleet. The Japanese had 4 battleships ,6 cruisers, and 11 destroyers. 
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UWS
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« Reply #22 on: April 10, 2023, 08:31:52 AM »


I’d say that, no wonder that Ethiopia was one of the rare African countries to resist colonization in the 19th century
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UWS
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« Reply #23 on: April 10, 2023, 12:01:15 PM »

Pearl Harbor as the Japanese’s main target were American aircraft carriers that weren’t even there at the time of the attack and these aircraft carriers were crucial for the US to win the Battle of Midway
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UWS
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« Reply #24 on: April 10, 2023, 12:13:19 PM »

Another upset would be Russia’s 2022 offensive on Kyiv. Many people thought that Russia would take Kyiv within something like 2 weeks but Zelenskyy stayed there and because of the courage and resilience of Ukrainian troops and also because of Russia’s bad tactics and unfavorable meteorological conditions (muddy ground and weather), they have derailed Russia’s attempts to take Kyiv thus giving hope for Ukraine
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