How much did incumbency help Trump? (user search)
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  How much did incumbency help Trump? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How much did incumbency help Trump?  (Read 12754 times)
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,394
Croatia
« on: December 30, 2023, 08:10:35 AM »
« edited: December 30, 2023, 08:56:03 AM by junior chįmp »

It helped him alot and it will help Biden as well.

Quote
Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Presidential Elections: The Historical Record

DAVID R. MAYHEW

....

I want to argue here that incumbency advantage in the statistical sense, underpinned by a corresponding mix of at least promising causal factors, is a good candidate for an account of American presidential elections. Other current scholarship has been pointing this way. Herbert F. Weisberg, drawing on a study of pooled individual survey responses for elections from 1952 through 2000, reports that incumbent presidential candidates enjoyed a bonus of 6 percent in the popular vote. Ray C. Fair, using aggregate data for elections from 1916 through 1996, reports a bonus of 4 percent. David Samuels, using aggregate data in an analysis of presidential elections in 23 countries including the United States, reports a bonus of over 8 percent.



https://www.jstor.org/stable/20203009
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