How much did incumbency help Trump?
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  How much did incumbency help Trump?
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Author Topic: How much did incumbency help Trump?  (Read 7284 times)
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
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« on: February 03, 2023, 07:56:25 AM »

Clearly, the answer is "not quite enough." However, since Trump only barely lost to Biden, many people have said that this proves how hard it is to defeat an incumbent President. However, I don't really understand this narrative.

After all, I can't imagine anyone saying, "I hate Trump, but I'll vote for him because he's currently President." That just doesn't sound like reasoning any sane person would adopt. Then again, this country's pretty insane, but my point still stands.

What do you all think?
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Snow Belt Republican
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« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2023, 10:36:54 AM »

Clearly, the answer is "not quite enough." However, since Trump only barely lost to Biden, many people have said that this proves how hard it is to defeat an incumbent President. However, I don't really understand this narrative.

After all, I can't imagine anyone saying, "I hate Trump, but I'll vote for him because he's currently President." That just doesn't sound like reasoning any sane person would adopt. Then again, this country's pretty insane, but my point still stands.

What do you all think?
Incumbents can get booted out of office if the economy is doing badly, recent examples : Jimmy Carter and George H.W Bush (Hoover was pre-1945 so not "recent" imo). Trump had the whole COVID catastrophe to deal with.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2023, 04:19:39 PM »

Trump had some incumbency advantage. Black and Hispanic men moved towards Trump. This is an example of incumbency advantage because the same thing happened to George W Bush in 2004.

But otherwise no. The typically incumbent sees movment towards him in every demographic. Reagan, Dubya and Clinton did better in every group when they ran for re-election. The ones who didn't were Carter and HW, which they lost. The exception was Obama who did worst with white people.

Trump saw many demographics move away from him. He is probably the first incumbent in modern times to have groups move towards him, others away. Thankfully the groups that moved away from him (suburban women) were more than the groups that moved towards him.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2023, 08:24:08 PM »

"Bigly".

Incumbency is extremely valuable for getting media access. For good or ill, Trump dominated news coverage even if many media figures despised him.

Face it: by just about any non-partisan standard, Trump was horrible. He still came close to winning.  Such attests to the vaue of incubency. 
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2023, 01:07:13 PM »

"Bigly".

Incumbency is extremely valuable for getting media access. For good or ill, Trump dominated news coverage even if many media figures despised him.

Face it: by just about any non-partisan standard, Trump was horrible. He still came close to winning.  Such attests to the vaue of incubency.  


It was 9 percentage pts unemployment and gave out stimulus but if Booker and Klobuchar were nominate without Reade Collins and Tillis would have lost


Biden is a 303 Pres but hasn't won beyond that clearly Cunningham and Gideon lost on Reade


The reason why Trump is losing and it will be 222DH a split S lose MT abd WV but win AZ, MO and OH S, he wants to cut taxes to 15 nothing on poverrty, Biden Wealth tax Reparations
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MARGINS6729
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« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2023, 01:10:13 AM »

It definitely helped him.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2023, 05:47:44 PM »
« Edited: December 28, 2023, 09:56:34 PM by Progressive Pessimist »

It gave him the benefit of the doubt and normalized him. Just not quite enough to make up for how much he failed in addressing COVID.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2023, 08:10:35 AM »
« Edited: December 30, 2023, 08:56:03 AM by junior chįmp »

It helped him alot and it will help Biden as well.

Quote
Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Presidential Elections: The Historical Record

DAVID R. MAYHEW

....

I want to argue here that incumbency advantage in the statistical sense, underpinned by a corresponding mix of at least promising causal factors, is a good candidate for an account of American presidential elections. Other current scholarship has been pointing this way. Herbert F. Weisberg, drawing on a study of pooled individual survey responses for elections from 1952 through 2000, reports that incumbent presidential candidates enjoyed a bonus of 6 percent in the popular vote. Ray C. Fair, using aggregate data for elections from 1916 through 1996, reports a bonus of 4 percent. David Samuels, using aggregate data in an analysis of presidential elections in 23 countries including the United States, reports a bonus of over 8 percent.



https://www.jstor.org/stable/20203009
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