DDNN POLL RESULTS: Cao with modest lead in wide field, but heavily favored if it's him or Labor
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  DDNN POLL RESULTS: Cao with modest lead in wide field, but heavily favored if it's him or Labor
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Author Topic: DDNN POLL RESULTS: Cao with modest lead in wide field, but heavily favored if it's him or Labor  (Read 353 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« on: February 03, 2023, 02:37:01 AM »
« edited: February 03, 2023, 05:37:17 PM by Fmr. Lincoln Deputy Dwarven Dragon »

Thank you to all who took the DDNN Poll. There were 32 responses.

Party:

Peace: 31.3%
Labor: 25%
Federalist: 18.8%
DA: 18.8%
SNP: 3%
Independent: 3%
Old Labor, Liberal, NKT: 0%

Region:

Lincoln/Northeast: 18.8%
Lincoln/Great Lakes: 18.8%
South/Upper South: 18.8%
South/Deep South: 15.6%
Fremont/Pacific: 15.6%
Fremont/Mountain West: 12.5%

We will first look at the regional contests. Voters of each region were polled on their respective upcoming contests, with these results:

Lincoln Senate:

Sirius: 58.3%
Pyro: 41.7%

Sirius: 58.3%
Nerd: 41.7%

Sirius: 58.3%
Pyro: 41.7%
Greg: 0%

Sirius: 50%
Pyro: 41.7%
Greg: 0%
NYE: 0%
Undecided: 8%

Fremont First Minister:

Ishan: 66.7%
FlyingMongoose: 11.1%
Undecided: 22.2%

Ishan: 66.7%
Dule: 11.1%
Undecided: 22.2%

Fremont Senate:

Scott: 77.8%
DeadPrez: 11.1%
Undecided: 11.1%

Scott: 77.8%
Dule: 11.1%
Undecided: 11.1%

South Senate:

Reactionary: 72.7%
WB: 9.1%
Undecided: 18.2%

Reactionary: 72.7%
Steelers: 27.3%

Reactionary: 63.6%
TimTurner: 36.4%

We also asked voters of each region if any region should secede from Atlasia. Voters could select to support secession of any region or combination of regions, or reject secessionism entirely.

Among Lincolnites, 25% support Southern Secession, 8% Lincoln Secession, and 0% Fremont Secession

Among Fremonters, 22% support Lincoln Secession, 11% Fremont Secession, and 11% Southern Secession

Among Southerners, 27% support Southern Secession, 18% Fremont Secession, and 18% Lincoln Secession

The results suggest that Southern voters may not have fully understood what they were voting for in the recent referendum, or that they want something short of actual secession, contrary to certain recent executive orders.

----

Next, we asked voters about the two term precedent generally. 41%, a plurality, said the precedent is not important. Only 21% support it, with the balance not caring. Overall, 79% of voters are against the two-term precedent or don't care about it.


Next, we asked voters about the meaning behind their midterm vote. 6% of the sample did not vote in the midterms, and 50% said Cao was not a factor. However, 28% of the sample said their vote was designed to support Cao, compared to only 16% saying their vote was designed to oppose Cao.

--

Overall, voters prefer Cao over an unnamed candidate, though only by a margin similar to that of October, instead of the landslides some imagine. 53% want Cao to be elected to a third term, while 47% say someone else should be elected.

If Cao does not run, voters seem eager for a change. 31% said Peace should assume the presidency if Cao does not, to 28% for Labor, 22% for the Federalists, 16% for Democratic Alliance, and 3% saying "Anyone But Spark".

---

We polled an open primary for each party. For Federalists, we did a Cao vs Someone else primary, and a primary if Cao does not run. All questions were asked to all respondents.

Labor:

Koopa: 21.9%
PragPop: 15.6%
S019: 12.5%
Pericles: 12.5%
Solid: 6.3%
Blairite: 6.3%
YE: 6.3%
Nerd: 6.3%
Tack: 3.1%
Western: 3.1%
Sev: 3.1%
"I don't know": 3.1%
AFE: 0%

Peace:

Spiral: 40.6%
Reactionary: 12.5%
MB: 12.5%
Wulfric: 9.4%
NYE: 3.1%
Laki: 3.1%
Classic Liminal: 3.1%
Fhtagn: 3.1%
Scott: 3.1%
"NOTA": 3.1%
"None": 3.1%
Christian Man: 0%

DA:

Utah Neolib: 31.3%
Weatherboy: 18.8%
ZMUN: 15.6%
Sirius: 12.5%
RC: 9.4%
"The Labor Candidate": 3.1%
"Please disband Already": 3.1%
"Any of these": 3.1%
"Any of the Above": 3.1%

Federalists:

Cao: 65.6%
Someone Else: 34.4%

West Midlander: 25%
NCY: 18.8%
LT: 9.4%
Enduro: 9.4%
YT: 6.3%
OSR: 6.3%
DeadPrez: 6.3%
Muaddib: 3.1%
Greg: 3.1%
Spark: 3.1%
"No horse in this race": 3.1%
"Cao is the only federalist I would vote for": 3.1%
"NOTA": 3.1%

---

Next, we asked voters if Cao should even face opposition, or if everyone should decline to run against him in the interest of unifying our country. Voters resoundingly rejected the unification idea, with 66% saying Cao should face opposition.

We also asked voters if they would like to see one or more presidential debates. 65.6% said they would, with only 9.4% being against it. The balance do not care.

---

And now, for actual matchups. We began with a selection of wide fields. Our results show that Cao enjoys a modest advantage, but could be in danger if a broad coalition united against him. However, other federalists struggle, with Peace holding modest leads if Cao is not in the race.

Cao: 50%
Pericles: 25%
NYE: 12.5%
Undecided: 12.5%

Cao: 37.5%
Pericles: 21.4%
ZMUN: 18.8%
NYE: 9.4%
Undecided: 12.5%

MB: 28.1%
Pericles: 25%
Weatherboy: 21.9%
YT: 18.8%
Undecided: 6.3%

Spiral: 28.1%
Pericles: 25%
Enduro: 21.9%
Weatherboy: 18.8%
Undecided: 6.3%

MB: 31.3%
Pericles: 28.1%
Weatherboy: 18.8%
Spark: 15.6%
Undecided: 6.3%

However, if it's Cao or Labor, we find that voters largely want Cao. Cao's lead in many matchups is overwhelming, and he only trails in one of them. The Matchup in which he trails is against someone who is not technically registered with Labor. It is clear that with most prospects, Labor simply doesn't have a shot. Considering the results above, perhaps a candidate from a smaller party could defeat Cao if the opposition unified behind them. But with most candidates that Labor itself could originate, the chances are slim.

An undecided option was provided, so these do not add to 100%.

Cao leads Western 59%-25%
Cao leads Pericles 56%-31%
Cao leads Blairite 53%-38%
Cao leads Sev 59%-31%
Cao leads Solid 56%-28%
Cao leads S019 62%-28%
Cao leads Prag 56%-31%
Koopa leads Cao 44%-37%
Cao leads YE 56%-34%
Cao leads AFE 53%-34%
Cao leads Nerd 47%-41%
Cao leads Tack 47%-37%

----

Comments
4 responses
Greater Regional Autonomy is not secession.
e ʻonipaʻa kākou 130
I plan to support any candidate for federal office who opposes the illegal and incomprehensibly idiotic Southern Secession plan.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,580
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« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2023, 04:02:16 PM »
« Edited: February 03, 2023, 08:26:53 PM by Fmr. Lincoln Deputy Dwarven Dragon »

DA Primary among only DA Members

Weatherboy: 33%
Sirius: 17%
Utah Neolib: 17%
"Any of these": 17%
"Any of the above": 17%

Federalist Primary among only Federalist Members

100% Cao

NCY 33%
LT 17%
Greg 17%
Enduro 17%
DeadPrez 17%

Labor Primary among only Labor Members

Pericles 50%
Blairite 25%
PragPop 13%
"I don't know" 13%


Peace Primary among only Peace Members

Spiral 60%
MB 30%
Reactionary 10%
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