AfD is 10 years old now
JimJamUK:
Quote from: CumbrianLefty on February 03, 2023, 07:39:19 AM
Don't they tend to drop off in support as an election approaches anyway?
Not really. Their polling and result at the 2021 federal election was pretty consistent from the onset of COVID, and their vote surged in the months leading up, and especially during, the 2017 federal election campaign (their peak was in 2016 for obvious reasons).
Looking at state elections from the past couple of years, there was no real movement in BW, Berlin, NRW, RP, SH (though they did underperform their polling), MV saw no real trend, while LS saw a swing to them as the election approached, as did SA (a completely false one). So more a story of underperforming their state polling a bit than their support dropping off (unless it repeatedly does so at the last minute).
oldtimer:
A product of centrism and grand coalitions ruining the CDU, just like the Green surge was a product of the SPD supporting CDU governments.
Whether they will disappear or not, depends on the CDU swinging to the right.
DavidB.:
Quote from: oldtimer on February 03, 2023, 05:35:38 PM
Whether they will disappear or not, depends on the CDU swinging to the right.
They won't. A certain number of current AfD voters could still be persuaded to vote for a CDU moving right. But the 2015 immigration disaster + COVID have produced a large enough pool of voters who will only vote AfD (or will not vote at all) for AfD to stay in.
Oryxslayer:
Quote from: DavidB. on February 04, 2023, 08:04:30 AM
Quote from: oldtimer on February 03, 2023, 05:35:38 PM
Whether they will disappear or not, depends on the CDU swinging to the right.
They won't. A certain number of current AfD voters could still be persuaded to vote for a CDU moving right. But the 2015 immigration disaster + COVID have produced a large enough pool of voters who will only vote AfD (or will not vote at all) for AfD to stay in.
There's also the cultural side of things. The Union as a national party will never court Ostalgia, which is the one unifying thread across all of AfD's evolutionary forms. So there will always be a pool of Eastern voters who perceive the world and history differently from the Union, built within the Western superstructure, leaving breathing space for AfD. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if their latest anti-Ukraine gains have come overwhelmingly from that pool of eastern voters who danced between parties for the past decade.
gerritcole:
ostalgie is defensible, scholz has 0 ossis in his cabinet and merkel forgot where she camefrom and berlin doesnt invest in east prussia
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