2006 without Macaca

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It still feels strange how in 2006, Allen said "macaca", there was a blue wave, his opponent was a centrist, and despite losing places like Buchanan County he still only lost by 0.4% in Virginia.

In 2012, Allen didn't say macaca and faced a more liberal opponent in a year that was 7 points redder than 2006, but lost by 6 points instead. Late in the election count, when Allen was leading by ~1.3% and Romney by 3.3%, it felt like Jim Marchant leading by 1.1% compared to Laxalt's 2.7% even when Laxalt was already not favored.

Fast forward to today, where even a Democrat who says "macaca" would probably win a federal race in VA by more than 0.4% against a centrist Republican in a red wave.

What would the race have looked like without macaca? There seems to be a consensus that Allen would've won by double digits, but he was never really above 50 in the polling, and the above factors made it unlikely that Allen would do that well.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Virginia in 2006 was still fundamentally a Republican state and keep in mind one huge reason it trended Democratic so fast was Obama spiked African American turnout by a good deal and that was huge for Democrats in the south. For example in Georgia the share of the vote that was African American went from 21% to 30% and my guess is this was true all across the south including in Virginia which really helped the Democrats. Add in to the fact that the GFC really turned many voters in NoVA against the GOP ,  is another reason for the difference.

Also Jim Webb in 2006 really was not a centrist like he is considered today. He ran strongly against the Iraq War which centrists really did not do then , ran strongly against Bush in ways many centrists did not do back then and he was clearly more liberal compared to people like Evan Bayh/Ben Nelson/most of the House Blue Dog.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Virginia in 2006 was still fundamentally a Republican state and keep in mind one huge reason it trended Democratic so fast was Obama spiked African American turnout by a good deal and that was huge for Democrats in the south. For example in Georgia the share of the vote that was African American went from 21% to 30% and my guess is this was true all across the south including in Virginia which really helped the Democrats. Add in to the fact that the GFC really turned many voters in NoVA against the GOP ,  is another reason for the difference.

Also Jim Webb in 2006 really was not a centrist like he is considered today. He ran strongly against the Iraq War which centrists really did not do then , ran strongly against Bush in ways many centrists did not do back then and he was clearly more liberal compared to people like Evan Bayh/Ben Nelson/most of the House Blue Dog.

Webb was a former Republican who worked under Reagan. He would eventually not even vote for Hillary Clinton - in fact, there might be a higher chance Webb voted for Trump than Allen.

In 2006, Sabato said "Political analyst Larry Sabato said in May that "Jim Webb is George Allen's worst nightmare: a war hero and a Reagan appointee who holds moderate positions.... Allen tries to project a Reagan aura, but Webb already has it."

Some positions Webb had was being hawkish on immigration, and being pro-gun ownership.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Virginia in 2006 was still fundamentally a Republican state and keep in mind one huge reason it trended Democratic so fast was Obama spiked African American turnout by a good deal and that was huge for Democrats in the south. For example in Georgia the share of the vote that was African American went from 21% to 30% and my guess is this was true all across the south including in Virginia which really helped the Democrats. Add in to the fact that the GFC really turned many voters in NoVA against the GOP ,  is another reason for the difference.

Also Jim Webb in 2006 really was not a centrist like he is considered today. He ran strongly against the Iraq War which centrists really did not do then , ran strongly against Bush in ways many centrists did not do back then and he was clearly more liberal compared to people like Evan Bayh/Ben Nelson/most of the House Blue Dog.

Webb was a former Republican who worked under Reagan. He would eventually not even vote for Hillary Clinton - in fact, there might be a higher chance Webb voted for Trump than Allen.

In 2006, Sabato said "Political analyst Larry Sabato said in May that "Jim Webb is George Allen's worst nightmare: a war hero and a Reagan appointee who holds moderate positions.... Allen tries to project a Reagan aura, but Webb already has it."

Some positions Webb had was being hawkish on immigration, and being pro-gun ownership.

Sure but in Bush era America there were things that made you considered a liberal :

- War In Iraq and being opposed to it as strongly as Webb did made you be viewed as a liberal

- Being Against Free Trade was considered liberal in those days even though that seems absurd

-  Being as Anti Bush as he was made you be viewed as a Liberal in those days

Like he was definitely to the left of Governor Mark Warner as well who you could say was the bar for what moderate was considered in those days.

Keep in mind Pat Buchanan was hired by MSNBC and he was treated as this "reasonable" Republican unlike the "insane neocons".

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Virginia in 2006 was still fundamentally a Republican state and keep in mind one huge reason it trended Democratic so fast was Obama spiked African American turnout by a good deal and that was huge for Democrats in the south. For example in Georgia the share of the vote that was African American went from 21% to 30% and my guess is this was true all across the south including in Virginia which really helped the Democrats. Add in to the fact that the GFC really turned many voters in NoVA against the GOP ,  is another reason for the difference.

Also Jim Webb in 2006 really was not a centrist like he is considered today. He ran strongly against the Iraq War which centrists really did not do then , ran strongly against Bush in ways many centrists did not do back then and he was clearly more liberal compared to people like Evan Bayh/Ben Nelson/most of the House Blue Dog.

Webb was a former Republican who worked under Reagan. He would eventually not even vote for Hillary Clinton - in fact, there might be a higher chance Webb voted for Trump than Allen.

In 2006, Sabato said "Political analyst Larry Sabato said in May that "Jim Webb is George Allen's worst nightmare: a war hero and a Reagan appointee who holds moderate positions.... Allen tries to project a Reagan aura, but Webb already has it."

Some positions Webb had was being hawkish on immigration, and being pro-gun ownership.

Sure but in Bush era America there were things that made you considered a liberal :

- War In Iraq and being opposed to it as strongly as Webb did made you be viewed as a liberal

- Being Against Free Trade was considered liberal in those days even though that seems absurd

-  Being as Anti Bush as he was made you be viewed as a Liberal in those days

Like he was definitely to the left of Governor Mark Warner as well who you could say was the bar for what moderate was considered in those days.

Keep in mind Pat Buchanan was hired by MSNBC and he was treated as this "reasonable" Republican unlike the "insane neocons".

It just feels unthinkable that even saying macaca in a blue wave, Allen managed to only lose Loudoun by 1.4, lose Prince William by 2.4, win Henrico, and win Chesterfield by 18. Republicans would kill for those margins in NoVA and Richmond suburbs today.

Allen also has historically seemed like an underperformer: He underperformed Bush in 2000 by 4 points, and underperformed Romney 2012 by 2 points.

[Mr.Phips]

Virginia in 2006 was still fundamentally a Republican state and keep in mind one huge reason it trended Democratic so fast was Obama spiked African American turnout by a good deal and that was huge for Democrats in the south. For example in Georgia the share of the vote that was African American went from 21% to 30% and my guess is this was true all across the south including in Virginia which really helped the Democrats. Add in to the fact that the GFC really turned many voters in NoVA against the GOP ,  is another reason for the difference.

Also Jim Webb in 2006 really was not a centrist like he is considered today. He ran strongly against the Iraq War which centrists really did not do then , ran strongly against Bush in ways many centrists did not do back then and he was clearly more liberal compared to people like Evan Bayh/Ben Nelson/most of the House Blue Dog.

Webb was a former Republican who worked under Reagan. He would eventually not even vote for Hillary Clinton - in fact, there might be a higher chance Webb voted for Trump than Allen.

In 2006, Sabato said "Political analyst Larry Sabato said in May that "Jim Webb is George Allen's worst nightmare: a war hero and a Reagan appointee who holds moderate positions.... Allen tries to project a Reagan aura, but Webb already has it."

Some positions Webb had was being hawkish on immigration, and being pro-gun ownership.

Sure but in Bush era America there were things that made you considered a liberal :

- War In Iraq and being opposed to it as strongly as Webb did made you be viewed as a liberal

- Being Against Free Trade was considered liberal in those days even though that seems absurd

-  Being as Anti Bush as he was made you be viewed as a Liberal in those days

Like he was definitely to the left of Governor Mark Warner as well who you could say was the bar for what moderate was considered in those days.

Keep in mind Pat Buchanan was hired by MSNBC and he was treated as this "reasonable" Republican unlike the "insane neocons".

It just feels unthinkable that even saying macaca in a blue wave, Allen managed to only lose Loudoun by 1.4, lose Prince William by 2.4, win Henrico, and win Chesterfield by 18. Republicans would kill for those margins in NoVA and Richmond suburbs today.

Allen also has historically seemed like an underperformer: He underperformed Bush in 2000 by 4 points, and underperformed Romney 2012 by 2 points.

On the flip side, Webb was able to do pretty well in SWVA.  He almost got 44% in VA-09.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Virginia in 2006 was still fundamentally a Republican state and keep in mind one huge reason it trended Democratic so fast was Obama spiked African American turnout by a good deal and that was huge for Democrats in the south. For example in Georgia the share of the vote that was African American went from 21% to 30% and my guess is this was true all across the south including in Virginia which really helped the Democrats. Add in to the fact that the GFC really turned many voters in NoVA against the GOP ,  is another reason for the difference.

Also Jim Webb in 2006 really was not a centrist like he is considered today. He ran strongly against the Iraq War which centrists really did not do then , ran strongly against Bush in ways many centrists did not do back then and he was clearly more liberal compared to people like Evan Bayh/Ben Nelson/most of the House Blue Dog.

Webb was a former Republican who worked under Reagan. He would eventually not even vote for Hillary Clinton - in fact, there might be a higher chance Webb voted for Trump than Allen.

In 2006, Sabato said "Political analyst Larry Sabato said in May that "Jim Webb is George Allen's worst nightmare: a war hero and a Reagan appointee who holds moderate positions.... Allen tries to project a Reagan aura, but Webb already has it."

Some positions Webb had was being hawkish on immigration, and being pro-gun ownership.

Sure but in Bush era America there were things that made you considered a liberal :

- War In Iraq and being opposed to it as strongly as Webb did made you be viewed as a liberal

- Being Against Free Trade was considered liberal in those days even though that seems absurd

-  Being as Anti Bush as he was made you be viewed as a Liberal in those days

Like he was definitely to the left of Governor Mark Warner as well who you could say was the bar for what moderate was considered in those days.

Keep in mind Pat Buchanan was hired by MSNBC and he was treated as this "reasonable" Republican unlike the "insane neocons".

It just feels unthinkable that even saying macaca in a blue wave, Allen managed to only lose Loudoun by 1.4, lose Prince William by 2.4, win Henrico, and win Chesterfield by 18. Republicans would kill for those margins in NoVA and Richmond suburbs today.

Allen also has historically seemed like an underperformer: He underperformed Bush in 2000 by 4 points, and underperformed Romney 2012 by 2 points.

On the flip side, Webb was able to do pretty well in SWVA.  He almost got 44% in VA-09.

Btw that was still an underperformance compared to Warner 96 and 01 (he won that district) so it did forshadow future trends . Something really stunning though is Warner in 14 lost Loudon County unlike Webb but won VA by a larger margin

[Mr.Phips]

Virginia in 2006 was still fundamentally a Republican state and keep in mind one huge reason it trended Democratic so fast was Obama spiked African American turnout by a good deal and that was huge for Democrats in the south. For example in Georgia the share of the vote that was African American went from 21% to 30% and my guess is this was true all across the south including in Virginia which really helped the Democrats. Add in to the fact that the GFC really turned many voters in NoVA against the GOP ,  is another reason for the difference.

Also Jim Webb in 2006 really was not a centrist like he is considered today. He ran strongly against the Iraq War which centrists really did not do then , ran strongly against Bush in ways many centrists did not do back then and he was clearly more liberal compared to people like Evan Bayh/Ben Nelson/most of the House Blue Dog.

Webb was a former Republican who worked under Reagan. He would eventually not even vote for Hillary Clinton - in fact, there might be a higher chance Webb voted for Trump than Allen.

In 2006, Sabato said "Political analyst Larry Sabato said in May that "Jim Webb is George Allen's worst nightmare: a war hero and a Reagan appointee who holds moderate positions.... Allen tries to project a Reagan aura, but Webb already has it."

Some positions Webb had was being hawkish on immigration, and being pro-gun ownership.

Sure but in Bush era America there were things that made you considered a liberal :

- War In Iraq and being opposed to it as strongly as Webb did made you be viewed as a liberal

- Being Against Free Trade was considered liberal in those days even though that seems absurd

-  Being as Anti Bush as he was made you be viewed as a Liberal in those days

Like he was definitely to the left of Governor Mark Warner as well who you could say was the bar for what moderate was considered in those days.

Keep in mind Pat Buchanan was hired by MSNBC and he was treated as this "reasonable" Republican unlike the "insane neocons".

It just feels unthinkable that even saying macaca in a blue wave, Allen managed to only lose Loudoun by 1.4, lose Prince William by 2.4, win Henrico, and win Chesterfield by 18. Republicans would kill for those margins in NoVA and Richmond suburbs today.

Allen also has historically seemed like an underperformer: He underperformed Bush in 2000 by 4 points, and underperformed Romney 2012 by 2 points.

On the flip side, Webb was able to do pretty well in SWVA.  He almost got 44% in VA-09.

Btw that was still an underperformance compared to Warner 96 and 01 (he won that district) so it did forshadow future trends . Something really stunning though is Warner in 14 lost Loudon County unlike Webb but won VA by a larger margin

Warner did exceptionally well in SWVA in 2001.  He even won VA-05 and came very close in VA-06.  Webb in 2006 still outperformed Gore and Kerry in SWVA while also substantially improving upon Kerry’s numbers (which were already a significant improvement over Gore’s) in NOVA.  Kerry only won Fairfax by 7 (Gore lost it) and lost Loudoun by 12 and PWC by 7.