Was Virginia being "safe dem as Illinois, New York, etc" meme the worst take in recent history?

[jamestroll]

I honestly can  not think of a worse take.

[Nyvin]

Yes, but it seems like it was pretty much true for Colorado, lol.

[jamestroll]

Yes, but it seems like it was pretty much true for Colorado, lol.

yea, haha. Colorado will likely vote to the left of NJ in 2024 and maybe Illinois and Oregon.

GOP biggest hurdle for winning VA in 2024 is the fact that there are many states far easier for them to win, so they will likely bypass it.

[Roll Roons]

Yes, but it seems like it was pretty much true for Colorado, lol.

Yeah. The Republican floor in Virginia should remain relatively high because of all the rural white areas. The state will probably continue to be a consistent but relatively light shade of blue at the federal level, but a strong Republican could get elected Governor in a good year.

The Colorado GOP probably has the bleakest prospects of any state GOP in the country. They can’t even count on big margins from Colorado Springs anymore.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would say it's more safe Democratic in the way New Mexico is, at least at the presidential level. Not completely an accurate statement, but not entirely misleading.

[Ferguson97]

Virginia is somewhere between Lean and Likely D on the presidential level, but the Republicans still have a very high floor.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

No because as NoVa continues to grow, I anticipate the Dems margin will too, although barring a landslide the GOP floor should remain in the low-mid 40's which is around where it is in both NJ+CT.

[Alben Barkley]

What? Where is this coming from? Virginia voted more D in 2020 than it has since 1944, by double digits. The "meme" was pretty accurate. The fact that it narrowly elected a Republican governor in a bad year for Dems, when Rs also almost won New Jersey, is irrelevant. Otherwise Kentucky and Louisiana are not safe Republican then by the same "logic," because they elected Democratic governors in an off-year with a Republican incumbent. And Illinois and New York both elected Republican governors, in the case of Illinois even a Republican senator, not all that long ago.

Why is it so hard for so many on this site to understand that gubernatorial/state elections say almost nothing about federal elections, especially presidential elections? That may be LESS true now than it used to be due to polarization, but overall it's still more true than not. Youngkin winning means precisely f--k regarding how blue Virginia is on the presidential level, which remains VERY blue. I would be shocked beyond belief if a Republican comes even remotely close to winning Virginia next year. Another double digit Democratic victory is far more likely.

I swear, the kneejerk overreactions from people on this site who apparently have the memories of goldfish -- and sometimes it seems the political knowledge of one as well -- are often VERY cringe.

[Liminal Trans Girl]

What? Where is this coming from? Virginia voted more D in 2020 than it has since 1944, by double digits. The "meme" was pretty accurate. The fact that it narrowly elected a Republican governor in a bad year for Dems, when Rs also almost won New Jersey, is irrelevant. Otherwise Kentucky and Louisiana are not safe Republican then by the same "logic," because they elected Democratic governors in an off-year with a Republican incumbent. And Illinois and New York both elected Republican governors, in the case of Illinois even a Republican senator, not all that long ago.

Why is it so hard for so many on this site to understand that gubernatorial/state elections say almost nothing about federal elections, especially presidential elections? That may be LESS true now than it used to be due to polarization, but overall it's still more true than not. Youngkin winning means precisely f--k regarding how blue Virginia is on the presidential level, which remains VERY blue. I would be shocked beyond belief if a Republican comes even remotely close to winning Virginia next year. Another double digit Democratic victory is far more likely.

I swear, the kneejerk overreactions from people on this site who apparently have the memories of goldfish -- and sometimes it seems the political knowledge of one as well -- are often VERY cringe.

This. By this same logic, Vermont is a Swing State due to electing Phil Scott to the Governorship. Besides NOVa trends are going against Rs and Rurals are shrinking

[Gracile]

I don't think most people really thought VA was as Democratic at the presidential level as those states, and that the GOP had a very high floor still. And most people here are fairly aware of the idiosyncratic nature of gubernatorial/state level elections where local issues make them uncomparable to the presidency.

[jamestroll]

I don't think most people really thought VA was as Democratic at the presidential level as those states, and that the GOP had a very high floor still. And most people here are fairly aware of the idiosyncratic nature of gubernatorial/state level elections where local issues make them uncomparable to the presidency.

I have it likely Dem in 2024 out of caution as I expect the margin to be under 10%.

But with the gop losing places in Virginia Beach in a climate like 2022, I do not really see a path for them there in 2024. it is not 2016 anymore in which the gop had a path.

[Pericles]

Illinois also elected a Republican Governor in a red wave midterm and we saw New York nearly do it too, so the 2021 results don't disprove this. I wouldn't say it is as safe but it is a Dem state, not a swing state, going forward.

[Pres Mike]

No. Virginia will never vote Republcian at the presidential level as long as MAGA controls the GOP. Youngkin was able to con people to think he was a George W. Bush/Mitt Romney Republican.

If the 2024 Republian nominee is MAGA, VA is safe D

[Skill and Chance]

Illinois also elected a Republican Governor in a red wave midterm and we saw New York nearly do it too, so the 2021 results don't disprove this. I wouldn't say it is as safe but it is a Dem state, not a swing state, going forward.

Yep, governor is never totally off limits for the out party. 

[jamestroll]

No. Virginia will never vote Republcian at the presidential level as long as MAGA controls the GOP. Youngkin was able to con people to think he was a George W. Bush/Mitt Romney Republican.

If the 2024 Republian nominee is MAGA, VA is safe D

Virginia would not vote for a George W. Bush Republican today despite the 21,000 Cia Agents (of which I doubt even a majority live in Virginia).

Mitt Romney did not even carry it.

[Pres Mike]

No. Virginia will never vote Republcian at the presidential level as long as MAGA controls the GOP. Youngkin was able to con people to think he was a George W. Bush/Mitt Romney Republican.

If the 2024 Republian nominee is MAGA, VA is safe D

Virginia would not vote for a George W. Bush Republican today despite the 21,000 Cia Agents (of which I doubt even a majority live in Virginia).

Mitt Romney did not even carry it.

Mitt Romney won 47%. Obama won the state by 3.88%, winning nationally by 3.86%. I suspect that had Mitt Romney won the presidential election he’d probably win Virginia

[Death of a Salesman]

Illinois also elected a Republican Governor in a red wave midterm and we saw New York nearly do it too, so the 2021 results don't disprove this. I wouldn't say it is as safe but it is a Dem state, not a swing state, going forward.

Yep, governor is never totally off limits for the out party. 

Are people forgetting that Republicans swept the row offices and won the chamber of the legislature that was up? Pretending that Virginia's 2021 elections were simply an instance of a popular moderate winning at the top of the ticket is wildly misinformed.

[Ragnaroni]

Its not a "safe Dem" state its a "likely Dem" state. Republicans have a high floor and ability to penetrate while in NY, CA and IL they don't (IL does have a decent floor). Southern VA is also culturally Southern so it's good for Reps.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Illinois also elected a Republican Governor in a red wave midterm and we saw New York nearly do it too, so the 2021 results don't disprove this. I wouldn't say it is as safe but it is a Dem state, not a swing state, going forward.

Yep, governor is never totally off limits for the out party. 

Except the entire ticket won

[Skill and Chance]

Illinois also elected a Republican Governor in a red wave midterm and we saw New York nearly do it too, so the 2021 results don't disprove this. I wouldn't say it is as safe but it is a Dem state, not a swing state, going forward.

Yep, governor is never totally off limits for the out party. 

Except the entire ticket won

Odd year elections extend the "less traditionally partisan" benefit to the out party to pretty much every office on the ballot.  VA legislature has always been 10+ years behind shifts in the presidential numbers. 

[TDAS04]

It's a likely D state in presidential elections.  Who said it was as safe as Illinois or New York?