Which of these NC/OH Democrats are still in congress two years from now?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which of these North Carolina and Ohio Democrats will still be in congress in two years’ time?

[Zedonathin2020]

Voted Landsman and Jackson, meant to vote for Davis as well but was too late

[Landslide Lyndon]

Doesn't the power sharing agreement between Republicans and Democrats in Ohio legislature include fair maps?

[Mr.Phips]

I’d guess just Landsman and maybe Kaptur.

[GALeftist]

- Manning, Nickel, and Jackson have a near zero chance of staying with a mandatory redraw and a hack SCONC.
- Davis is slightly trickier since there has been a Black-influenced seat in NE North Carolina basically forever and the current one kind of still functions, although probably not for long. You could hypothetically land yourself in hot water federally if you're too blatant. I tend to think they will draw a district that Davis could win in 2024 and maybe 2026 but almost certainly not after that.
- Kaptur and Sykes really depend on what extractions the OH Dems actually got out of Stephens (after Kaptur's performance there's a small chance Rs may just not want to bother with her anymore as well). I think it's very likely that they both survive or both get the axe.
- Landsman is almost certainly safe, now that Chabot's out they don't really have a reason to draw a grotesque gerrymander for at best a Tilt D seat anyway.

[kwabbit]

- Manning, Nickel, and Jackson have a near zero chance of staying with a mandatory redraw and a hack SCONC.
- Davis is slightly trickier since there has been a Black-influenced seat in NE North Carolina basically forever and the current one kind of still functions, although probably not for long. You could hypothetically land yourself in hot water federally if you're too blatant. I tend to think they will draw a district that Davis could win in 2024 and maybe 2026 but almost certainly not after that.
- Kaptur and Sykes really depend on what extractions the OH Dems actually got out of Stephens (after Kaptur's performance there's a small chance Rs may just not want to bother with her anymore as well). I think it's very likely that they both survive or both get the axe.
- Landsman is almost certainly safe, now that Chabot's out they don't really have a reason to draw a grotesque gerrymander for at best a Tilt D seat anyway.

If the OH GOP is not forced to compromise at all, it’s very easy to draw a seat that Kaptur would likely lose even after accounting for her 2022 performance. You can draw a Trump +14 seat with all of Lucas County. Same with Landsman. Cincinnati + Clermont + some 75-25 rurals gets a Trump +4 district with negligible trends. Sykes is tougher but you can also get her into a Trump +5 or so seat.

If there’s any need to compromise, then Landsman and Kaptur will be fine. Sykes will remain in a competitive seat.

[Devils30]

Not clear if Ohio is going to redraw, if they do I fully expect OH-1 to become a Biden +20 Cincy pack.

NC is tricky, Rs might be better going for a safe 10-4 instead of pushing for an 11-3 with dummymander potential after they pass an abortion ban by overriding Cooper or the next Gov.

[TwinGeeks99]

I think Greg Landsman would be fine even in a hypothetical Republican gerrymander. Considering they tried their best to save Chabot and that failed, I expect them to just cede a Cincinnati seat to him considering that metro is only going to get bluer with time.