I've read 15 books about the 2020 election...Ask me anything!
Pres Mike:
Quote from: Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 on February 02, 2023, 09:49:09 AM
Why do you think Biden was unable to carry NC? What lessons need to be learned for Dems to finally win the state in 2024?
Mostly Cal Cunningham for reasons....
Another factor was the slight movment of African American, Hispanic and Native American men towards Trump.
Considering how close it was, any combination of the above reasons might have lost NC for Democrats
Pres Mike:
Quote from: VirginiaAaron on February 02, 2023, 01:58:55 PM
I've read that some people around Trump knew it would be an uphill battle for them, is that true and was Trump being told that or was he just completely left out of the dark?
At no point was Trump told he was winning the election. Several people around him desperatly tried to get him to change course. At one point, Trump legit thought there was no point in changing course, because Democrats were planning to replace Biden with Andrew Cuomo or Michelle Obama.
Trump was told throughout the campaign by several people that polls would underestimate him again. And that he didn't need to be above water in polls to win.
In the final week, internal polls showed real movement for Trump. The Biden internal polls showed the same thing.
The last 24 hours of the campaign, the internal polls showed Trump close enough. Not winning, but a 2016 poll error coudl get him across the finish line. When the Florida results were reported, the Trump campaign thought that what was exactly happening. Only until Arizona was called for Democrats that ruined everything.
Cyrusman:
Quote from: Pres Mike on February 01, 2023, 10:29:30 AM
Here they are....
Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won the Presidency
Jonathan Allen
Battle for the Soul: Inside the Democrats' Campaigns to Defeat Trump
Edward-Isaac Dovere
Peril
Bob Woodward
Frankly, We Did Win This Election: The Inside Story of How Trump Lost
Michael C. Bender
Joe Biden : the life, the run, and what matters now
Evan Osnos
Growing Up Biden: A Memoir
Valerie Biden Owens
A Return to Normalcy?: The 2020 Election that (Almost) Broke America
Larry Sabato
Landslide
Michael Wolff
Betrayal : the final act of the Trump show
Jonathan Karl
Divided We Stand
Andrew Busch and John Pitney
I Alone Can Fix It: Donald J. Trump's Catastrophic Final Year
Carol Leonning and Philip Rucker
This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America's Future
Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns
The Fighting Soul: On the Road with Bernie Sanders
Ari-Rabin-Havt
The Long Alliance: The Imperfect Union of Joe Biden and Barack Obama
Gabriel Debenedetti
The Fight of His Life: Inside Joe Biden's White House
Chris Whipple
2 Questions.
1.) I'm currently leading- Frankly, We Did Win This Election: The Inside Story of How Trump Lost and I LOVE it. Bender does a great job being neutral and I love timeline books. What would you recommended me to read after? I want another timeline book that goes through a lot of the backroom decisions, inside scoops kinda. Preferably as least bias as possible.
2.) Who were the demographics that Trump lost the most support from in May/June of 2020? It appears that is when he fell apart and could never recover.
King of Kensington:
Who were the 8 million voters Trump gained?
Pres Mike:
Quote from: King of Kensington on February 03, 2023, 07:41:31 PM
Who were the 8 million voters Trump gained?
The vast vast majority of the 8 million votes Trump gained were already Trump supporters, just people who never voted before. The voter turnout in 2016 was 55%, similar to past elections in the 21st century. It rose to 66% in 2020.
There was some movment with black and hispanic men towards Trump. Men who voted for Obama, stayed home in 2016, than voted for Trump. It wasn't a huge number though. These voters like incumbents and canididates that project strength. For hispanics, especially Texas, it was in support of natural gas and oil.
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