Adams County, CO

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Adams voted D +17 in 2012, D +9 in 2016, then D +16 in 2020.

Why did Adams have a right-trend from 2012 to 2016 before snapping back to Biden? It seems like the other Denver suburban counties (Jefferson, Arapahoe) were all trending left.

[TML]

The third party vote share was much higher in 2016 compared to 2012 or 2020. Trump's 2016 vote share was roughly the same as the Republican vote share in 2012 or 2020, but the Democratic vote share cratered in 2016 compared to the two other years.

[Tintrlvr]

Adams is pretty downmarket compared to the other Denver suburban counties so isn't trending as much towards the Democrats (in 2016 actually trended Republican), then in 2020 all of Colorado moved hard towards the Democrats and Adams with it but not more than typical for Colorado.

[DS0816]

Adams voted D +17 in 2012, D +9 in 2016, then D +16 in 2020.

Why did Adams have a right-trend from 2012 to 2016 before snapping back to Biden? It seems like the other Denver suburban counties (Jefferson, Arapahoe) were all trending left.

From Wikipedia…

In 2008, Colorado realigned to the Democrats, for U.S. President, with Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama and his pickup of the state. (That year, and in 2012, Colorado was the Democrats’s No. 23 best-performed state. It was the Tipping-Point State in both 2008 and 2012. In 2016 and 2020, Colorado was the Democrats’s Nos. 16 and 14 best state.)

Since 2008, the number of votes cast for U.S. President, from Adams County (county seat is Brighton; most-populous city is Thornton), has increased by about 50 percent by Election 2020. This may explain some of these percentage-points margins.

Looking at theses percentage-points margins, in both 2016 and 2020, and that it performed within five percentage points from statewide outcomes, it may be wise to look to the outcome in 2024. It may be that Adams County is becoming a bellwether county-to-the-state in Colorado.

[Smash255]

The third party vote share was much higher in 2016 compared to 2012 or 2020. Trump's 2016 vote share was roughly the same as the Republican vote share in 2012 or 2020, but the Democratic vote share cratered in 2016 compared to the two other years.

Not sure how much the 3rd party vote had to do with it.  Johnson had similar #'s in Arapahoe and Jefferson yet those trended Clinton in 2016.  Adams was traditionally the most Democratic of the Denver suburbs, and has a large working class contingent.   It likely trended GOP for this reason in 2016, but pulled back Democratic a bit in 2020, especially with the sharp swing in the state as a whole.

[NorCalifornio]

A discussion of Adams County vs. Arapahoe/Jefferson from a couple years ago.