Effect of 1912 redux in 2024 on Congressional Races
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  Effect of 1912 redux in 2024 on Congressional Races
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Poll
Question: How would a 1912 redux in 2024 affect House & Senate races that year?
#1
Mostly helps Democrats
 
#2
Mostly helps Republicans
 
#3
Will have a statistically insignificant impact on either party
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 27

Author Topic: Effect of 1912 redux in 2024 on Congressional Races  (Read 701 times)
TML
Junior Chimp
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« on: February 01, 2023, 03:06:26 AM »

For the purposes of this thread, let's assume that 2024 turns out to be a 1912 redux, where Trump runs as a third party or independent candidate, alongside Biden (or another Democrat, if Biden bows out) and a non-Trump Republican nominee. How do you think that scenario would affect House & Senate races in 2024? (FYI, the presidential split in 1912 also helped Democrats make huge gains in that year's House election and flip the Senate as well, since Democrats were able to portray a message of unity against the Republican/Progressive split.)
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Spectator
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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2023, 06:18:33 AM »

I think it depends on if the Trump third party voters withhold their votes for the Republican Party or not.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2023, 10:01:15 AM »

Mostly helps Republicans because a lot of the Trump third party voters probably would have just stayed home otherwise.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2023, 10:12:45 AM »

I think the effect will be small and hardly make a difference in chamber control. Both houses flipping is a reasonable estimation.

Tbh, I don't think Trump will run 3rd party. He'll just complain that the primaries were rigged and consequently hurts DeSantis.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2023, 01:17:06 PM »

The only people unironically entertaining the possibility of a "1912 redux" in the event that Trump were to run as a third-party/independent candidate are hardcore Democratic partisans/hacks who have shockingly little understanding of how poorly an emasculated, whiny loser like Trump would perform among Republican/-leaning voters in a competitive general election between Biden and an actual Republican challenger, esp. a competent one like DeSantis.

Stop creating these ridiculous caricatures of Republican primary voters and get some fresh air.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2023, 03:02:58 PM »

In 1912, it appears that a lot of the Republican losses were down to the Republican/Progressive split. Despite their huge gains, the Democratic percentage of the popular vote declined by 3.5 points. Many of the seats they won were with narrow pluralities, like Illinois's 3rd district:

George E. Gorman (D) 33.2%
William W. Wilson (R) 28.8%
Franklin P. Simons (P) 26.6%

So I suspect it would be down to whether Trump's "Patriot Party" or whatever does similarly. If it does, I think it's obvious what would happen. If it doesn't, I think it would probably help congressional Republicans on net by turning out nonvoters, but you could also see independents running against many congressional Republicans. Honestly I don't know. However, unlike Roosevelt, Trump would not be running to advance any serious policy agenda, so I kind of doubt he'd go to the trouble to run candidates aligned with him.

To be clear, I don't think this is the modal outcome, but I think there is this weird doublethink on the part of a lot of anti-Trump conservatives that makes me chuckle. I keep seeing people like baseballcrank and indeed IndyRep eviscerate Trump for a lack of devotion to conservatism or the Republican Party as opposed to his personal ambitions and then in the same breath dismiss the threat of any attempt on his part to sabotage another Republican who wins the primary. Like, it's one or the other. Also, even if he flames out nationally (which I heavily doubt), even if he draws only 2% of votes that would have otherwise gone to the R nominee, that's still pretty catastrophic given how close elections tend to be in this day and age. And, like, Gary Johnson got >3% of the vote nationally in 2016. Are we seriously saying that we think Trump would be a nonfactor?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2023, 10:01:52 AM »

The only people unironically entertaining the possibility of a "1912 redux" in the event that Trump were to run as a third-party/independent candidate are hardcore Democratic partisans/hacks who have shockingly little understanding of how poorly an emasculated, whiny loser like Trump would perform among Republican/-leaning voters in a competitive general election between Biden and an actual Republican challenger, esp. a competent one like DeSantis.

Stop creating these ridiculous caricatures of Republican primary voters and get some fresh air.

However, hard-core Trump supporters are more likely to stick with a third-party Trump rather than the rational choice (from a Republican POV) of DeSantis, especially if they perceive that Trump had the nomination stolen from him, as they think the 2020 election was stolen.  While not a majority of the Republican Party, these hard-core supporters comprise a sizable fraction of it.  A recent poll showed 28% of Republican primary voters sticking with Trump in this situation; while it's obviously only one poll, it seems like a plausible estimate.  If the true number is even half that large, a uniform shift would swing NC, FL, TX, probably ME-2, and possibly Ohio and Iowa, resulting in a Biden victory with somewhere around 400 EV.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2023, 10:24:12 AM »

Stop creating these ridiculous caricatures of Republican primary voters and get some fresh air.

How can you possibly say this after 2022 lmao
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2023, 11:32:14 AM »

The only people unironically entertaining the possibility of a "1912 redux" in the event that Trump were to run as a third-party/independent candidate are hardcore Democratic partisans/hacks who have shockingly little understanding of how poorly an emasculated, whiny loser like Trump would perform among Republican/-leaning voters in a competitive general election between Biden and an actual Republican challenger, esp. a competent one like DeSantis.

Stop creating these ridiculous caricatures of Republican primary voters and get some fresh air.

It won't be a 1912 redux in the sense that Trump does better than the Republican nominee but if you can't see that more than enough Republican voters will vote for Trump and throw the election if he's on the ballot then it is you who believes in a false reality of who comprises the Republican electorate. And with all due respect, you predicted a Bolduc victory in New Hampshire. I'm not trying to be mean (I like you, after all) but you shouldn't immediately jump back to the assumption that your understanding of the American electorate is superior to other people on this website.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2023, 05:02:36 PM »

Quote from: Some Scared, Delusional, Smug Republican Hack Who Was Laughably Wrong About the 1910 Elections
The only people unironically entertaining the possibility of a "1860 redux" in the event that Roosevelt were to run as a third-party/independent candidate are hardcore Democratic partisans/hacks who have shockingly little understanding of how poorly an emasculated, whiny loser like Roosevelt would perform among Republican/-leaning voters in a competitive general election between Wilson and an actual Republican incumbent, esp. a competent one like Taft.

Stop creating these ridiculous caricatures of Republican primary voters and get some fresh air.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #10 on: February 02, 2023, 05:08:32 PM »

The only people unironically entertaining the possibility of a "1912 redux" in the event that Trump were to run as a third-party/independent candidate are hardcore Democratic partisans/hacks who have shockingly little understanding of how poorly an emasculated, whiny loser like Trump would perform among Republican/-leaning voters in a competitive general election between Biden and an actual Republican challenger, esp. a competent one like DeSantis.

Stop creating these ridiculous caricatures of Republican primary voters and get some fresh air.

It won't be a 1912 redux in the sense that Trump does better than the Republican nominee but if you can't see that more than enough Republican voters will vote for Trump and throw the election if he's on the ballot then it is you who believes in a false reality of who comprises the Republican electorate. And with all due respect, you predicted a Bolduc victory in New Hampshire. I'm not trying to be mean (I like you, after all) but you shouldn't immediately jump back to the assumption that your understanding of the American electorate is superior to other people on this website.

As someone who very much does not like him and has long laughed at the Republican obsession with New Hampshire in particular ("But they're white! They like guns and don't like taxes! They HAVE to vote for us!" yet they mock Democrats who think "But Florida is diverse and Latino and urban! They HAVE to vote for us!"), I am glad to see he's back to his trademark unearned smugness. I knew he couldn't hide his true self for long, no matter how wrong he was or how much he embarrassed himself, to the point any person with even the slightest sense of shame would never make a prediction again. Because after all, he did the same after 2019. Believe people when they tell you who they are.
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« Reply #11 on: February 02, 2023, 10:15:51 PM »

The only people unironically entertaining the possibility of a "1912 redux" in the event that Trump were to run as a third-party/independent candidate are hardcore Democratic partisans/hacks who have shockingly little understanding of how poorly an emasculated, whiny loser like Trump would perform among Republican/-leaning voters in a competitive general election between Biden and an actual Republican challenger, esp. a competent one like DeSantis.

Stop creating these ridiculous caricatures of Republican primary voters and get some fresh air.

It won't be a 1912 redux in the sense that Trump does better than the Republican nominee but if you can't see that more than enough Republican voters will vote for Trump and throw the election if he's on the ballot then it is you who believes in a false reality of who comprises the Republican electorate. And with all due respect, you predicted a Bolduc victory in New Hampshire. I'm not trying to be mean (I like you, after all) but you shouldn't immediately jump back to the assumption that your understanding of the American electorate is superior to other people on this website.

MT Treasurer did not predict the GOP would win NH
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S019
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« Reply #12 on: February 02, 2023, 10:18:39 PM »

A 1912 redux is literally Dem wishcasting. Trump would get maybe 10% at most in a world where he lost the primary and make clear a permanent break with the Republican Party.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #13 on: February 02, 2023, 10:30:14 PM »

The only people unironically entertaining the possibility of a "1912 redux" in the event that Trump were to run as a third-party/independent candidate are hardcore Democratic partisans/hacks who have shockingly little understanding of how poorly an emasculated, whiny loser like Trump would perform among Republican/-leaning voters in a competitive general election between Biden and an actual Republican challenger, esp. a competent one like DeSantis.

Stop creating these ridiculous caricatures of Republican primary voters and get some fresh air.

It won't be a 1912 redux in the sense that Trump does better than the Republican nominee but if you can't see that more than enough Republican voters will vote for Trump and throw the election if he's on the ballot then it is you who believes in a false reality of who comprises the Republican electorate. And with all due respect, you predicted a Bolduc victory in New Hampshire. I'm not trying to be mean (I like you, after all) but you shouldn't immediately jump back to the assumption that your understanding of the American electorate is superior to other people on this website.

MT Treasurer did not predict the GOP would win NH

His last Senate prediction says otherwise.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #14 on: February 03, 2023, 03:27:34 AM »
« Edited: February 03, 2023, 03:32:09 AM by Epaminondas »

Same as 2016: plenty of voters, convinced the split will guarantee a Biden win, reluctantly vote for the Dem nominee and choose the GOP congressionally to quench their lust for "tsheks and ballunces".


The only people unironically entertaining the possibility of a "1912 redux" in the event that Trump were to run as a third-party/independent candidate are hardcore Democratic partisans/hacks who have shockingly little understanding of how poorly an emasculated, whiny loser like Trump would perform among Republican/-leaning voters in a competitive general election between Biden and an actual Republican challenger, esp. a competent one like DeSantis.

Stop creating these ridiculous caricatures of Republican primary voters and get some fresh air.

Forgive us for being skeptical that Republicans finally see Trump as the "whiny, emasculated loser" he's been since 2015. You've been led by the pied piper for 7 years and if if the polls are true indicating 50% of the GOP still believes the election was stolen, then what has fundamentally changed?
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