2024 Presidential Predictions (General)

[RFK 2024]

There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.

I wonder which state will break off first

Election results have become super inelastic in recent years, especially since 2018.  It's easier and more accurate to base predictions on demographic trends and voting history than polling data.

In terms of which states would be most likely to flip in 2024,  I would say NC for Dems and WI for Reps, but I'm not sure what odds I would give either atm (probably less than 50).

[RFK 2024]

There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.

I wonder which state will break off first

Election results have become super inelastic in recent years, especially since 2018.  It's easier and more accurate to base predictions on demographic trends and voting history than polling data.

In terms of which states would be most likely to flip in 2024,  I would say NC for Dems and WI for Reps, but I'm not sure what odds I would give either atm (probably less than 50).

I'm not even talking about the actual election results but rather the predictions... These predictions have to change eventually that there's some small difference between the 2020 election results and 2024 election predictions (even in margin and not in winner).

I expect they'll change when we get more polling.  The actual 2024 results will be very close to last time though.  We saw how the "blue wave" in 2020 and "red wave" in 2022 materialized.  During times of hyper partisanship coupled with online echo chambers the number of swing voters really drops off.

[RFK 2024]

One year out and I'll post the first map on this thread.



Legend
Tilt = less than 2% margin
Lean = 2 to 5% margin
Likely = 6 to 12% margin
Safe = over 12% margin