There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.
I wonder which state will break off first
Election results have become super inelastic in recent years, especially since 2018. It's easier and more accurate to base predictions on demographic trends and voting history than polling data.
In terms of which states would be most likely to flip in 2024, I would say NC for Dems and WI for Reps, but I'm not sure what odds I would give either atm (probably less than 50).
I'm not even talking about the actual election results but rather the predictions... These predictions have to change eventually that there's some small difference between the 2020 election results and 2024 election predictions (even in margin and not in winner).
