Jan. 2023 - Rate the 2024 Senate

[MT Treasurer]

Would also remind people that the last time this Senate class was up, the early consensus/CW (certainly on this forum, but also among many pundits) was that the GOP would face an uphill battle in beating Heidi Heitkamp due to a myriad of reasons (Morning Consult polls showing her more popular than any other red state Democrat, the nature of the state allowing her to establish a compelling local/face-to-face brand, her personal marketing skills, etc.) while Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly were widely considered far more likely to lose than her, with their previous overperformances largely written off as "flukes." 

Might be a note of caution to the people rating MT a Toss-up/Lean D but OH Likely R, esp. since there are a lot of parallels between MT/ND and OH/IN/MO, respectively. Obviously Heitkamp got overconfident and committed a series of missteps that Tester is skilled enough to steer clear of, but I don’t think it’s impossible that OH ends up closer than MT depending on candidate/campaign quality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean Republican.

West Virginia is 100% gone for good, and Montana, Ohio and Arizona are tossups at least. I think Casey and Baldwin remain clear favorites as of now. The bad news is that I don't see Democrats having a serious shot at flipping a seat. Florida isn't going to happen and I doubt Texas is there yet. Sure, that was said about Georgia before as well, but I remain skeptical.

If Biden's wins reelection, I think there's some chance Brown and Tester hold on, and Gallego takes Arizona. That would get Democrats back to a 50-50, but without Manchin, Sinema and Feinstein. It's a heavy lift, but far from impossible. It just sucks that Ron Johnson wasn't defeated last year. He's one of the most obnoxious senators.

Have you seen the KY poll KY is just as R as WC wait for a poll

[President Johnson]

Lean Republican.

West Virginia is 100% gone for good, and Montana, Ohio and Arizona are tossups at least. I think Casey and Baldwin remain clear favorites as of now. The bad news is that I don't see Democrats having a serious shot at flipping a seat. Florida isn't going to happen and I doubt Texas is there yet. Sure, that was said about Georgia before as well, but I remain skeptical.

If Biden's wins reelection, I think there's some chance Brown and Tester hold on, and Gallego takes Arizona. That would get Democrats back to a 50-50, but without Manchin, Sinema and Feinstein. It's a heavy lift, but far from impossible. It just sucks that Ron Johnson wasn't defeated last year. He's one of the most obnoxious senators.

Have you seen the KY poll KY is just as R as WC wait for a poll

Kentucky hasn't a senate election in 2024, king.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean Republican.

West Virginia is 100% gone for good, and Montana, Ohio and Arizona are tossups at least. I think Casey and Baldwin remain clear favorites as of now. The bad news is that I don't see Democrats having a serious shot at flipping a seat. Florida isn't going to happen and I doubt Texas is there yet. Sure, that was said about Georgia before as well, but I remain skeptical.

If Biden's wins reelection, I think there's some chance Brown and Tester hold on, and Gallego takes Arizona. That would get Democrats back to a 50-50, but without Manchin, Sinema and Feinstein. It's a heavy lift, but far from impossible. It just sucks that Ron Johnson wasn't defeated last year. He's one of the most obnoxious senators.

Have you seen the KY poll KY is just as R as WC wait for a poll

Kentucky hasn't a senate election in 2024, king.

But Beshear is an incumbent the rule of thumb is unless a poll shows an incumbent losing he is safe we thought Johnson was gonna lose because it's a 303 map he won same goes for Manchin, Tester, Scott and Brown

My point was that KY is just as R as WV, there are many examples of split voting Cooper/Trump 20 Laura Kelly won 22 in KS Kemp and Warnock

The only reason why Vance defeat Ryan was due to DeWine winning by 25 Brown can hold on

We don't have nominee yet Justice and Mooney are contemplating a run

[jamestroll]

Would also remind people that the last time this Senate class was up, the early consensus/CW (certainly on this forum, but also among many pundits) was that the GOP would face an uphill battle in beating Heidi Heitkamp due to a myriad of reasons (Morning Consult polls showing her more popular than any other red state Democrat, the nature of the state allowing her to establish a compelling local/face-to-face brand, her personal marketing skills, etc.) while Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly were widely considered far more likely to lose than her, with their previous overperformances largely written off as "flukes." 

Might be a note of caution to the people rating MT a Toss-up/Lean D but OH Likely R, esp. since there are a lot of parallels between MT/ND and OH/IN/MO, respectively. Obviously Heitkamp got overconfident and committed a series of missteps that Tester is skilled enough to steer clear of, but I don’t think it’s impossible that OH ends up closer than MT depending on candidate/campaign quality.

I am not predicting it will happen, and I am initially rating Tester as the most likely of the trio (Tester/Brown/Manchin) of being re-elected, but I could see a situation in which Sherrod Brown convinces enough suburbanites to vote for him and barely squeaking by statewide while Tester is losing due to the rural nature of Nevada irrespective of his over performance.

Neither Brown or Tester (i think) have to over perform as much as Heitkamp did in 2018 to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's important to note Cooper outperform Biden in NC Biden lost NC and Cooper won, Warnock over performance of Abrams in 22 and Beshear and Presley are over performance of Biden in KY and MS

Brown has a better chance than Ryan due to fact DeWine pulled Vance over the line due to winning by 25, DeWine won by 3 and Brown won.

But Ryan wasn't seen often in media until he ran for Sen that's why he did so poorly in Prez 2020 if he would of took some leadership role even Chair of DCCC like Van Hollen dd he would have done better

Same with Demings and Beasley, Demings was on the air but she wasn't in any leadership role in Black Caucus , Sheila Jackson Lee holds that title