Ontario Liberal leadership race

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Similar socioeconomically and both semi-suburban in character (similar to North York in Toronto?), but yes Ottawa South is more diverse with Blacks and Arabs being the largest minorities.


University degree

Ottawa West-Nepean  46.8%
Ottawa South  45.1%

Average income

Ottawa West-Nepean  $55,900
Ottawa South  $55,600

Visible Minority

Ottawa South  44.2%
Ottawa West-Nepean  35.2%

Lol, a quick look at Census profiles of North York ridings has average incomes 80-100k+ range, not in the 50s.  Willowdale 103k, Don Valley North 98k, Eglinton-Lawrence 95k.  Not the same.

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Oh ok, I wasn't sure when you had written Average Income, my mistake.

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Yup. Crombie is worse than Ford on housing. Good luck getting very many voters under 40 if she wins.

Almost like Wynne '18 redux--i.e. how it was the Brahmin-ratepayer over-40s (or heck, over-60s) that were her most faithful remaining demo.

But at the same time, it's hard to see Marit Stiles (much less Mike Schreiner, duh) being in agreement over the Greenbelt being a "scam".  Remember: the under-40s concerned about housing are *also* concerned about the environment--that is, they might approve of a *measured* approach to development on the Greenbelt, but statements like that suggest a bone-headed contempt for any such "measured" approach.  Not just to the Greenbelt, but to *anything*--unless one is using the "Ontario Proud" barometer for what under 40s are thinking...

Maslow's Hierachy, shelter trumps any kind of ability to worry about the environment.  We have reached (and surpassed) the breaking point of being able to live in the GTA on an average income.  So, I don't think this is true that these are somehow equal concerns, maybe for very wealthy under 40s (I'm thinking 200k+ salary, or excessive generational wealth from parents real estate), but not your average under 40 who isn't able to survive.

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Perhaps if the opposition tells Ontario youth who want new housing that they're stupid for wanting that, it'll successfully change their minds. It's an interesting thought.

No, the stupidity is not in Ontario youth wanting new housing.  The stupidity is in a *particular solution to the problem* that's offered as a Hobson's choice.

I mean, it's a philosophical discussion at this point.  People want what they want, for a variety of reasons, trying to be the person to dictate what someone should want, or what solution should exist  (this "I know what's best for you!!! And it's not housing near where you work, where your family lives, where your culture and community exists) isn't my idea of appropriate. And it's not like it's an excessive "want" that isn't what generations of Canadians were used to prior to the last 10 years - just a comfortable place to live near family and friends.  I don't think the Greenbelt is any more of a novel idea or piece of land than all the development that has occurred in the GTA in past.  This argument that well, I get to have mine (ie. I get to have a house on land that at some point had to be developed, no matter how far back you want to go, to the detriment of the Indigenous communities if you want to go that far back), but this new generation shouldn't get theirs, isn't one that sits well.  And let's be honest a big part of this land, and the Highway 413, pass mostly through North Brampton and Milton - it's not a coincidence that it is the Toronto 416 elite (read white) "old stock" Ontarians, who are against new development in areas that would likely house new immigrant (non-white) groups, and all this being done under the guise of environmentalism. 

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Bonnie at 43% on the first ballot.  Looks like this will go to 3 ballots since Ted (4th place) only has 10% to give.. unless she can take 7% from him.  Will be very close!  Anyone else watching live?

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Some of these results seem odd.  Really makes me wonder if the free memberships caused non-liberals to vote to skew results?  The Brampton ridings are interesting, the ones Crombie didn't win, perhaps influenced by the Peel region breakup.  There is the South Asian factor for Naqvi winning 2 of the seats, but NES winning one in Brampton is bizarre.  Not his demographic at all, and if there was any part of Brampton that skews left, it would be the eastern part, not the south-west where he won. Also a little surprised at how poorly Crombie did in Northern Ontario, or at how well NES did. He appears to come off as downtown "elite" even if he is a rebel/maverick.  Naqvi winning in Timmins is also odd, although I can't imagine it was many people voting, given the Liberals didn't even have a candidate there in the last election.