Ontario Liberal leadership race (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 12:32:05 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Ontario Liberal leadership race (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Ontario Liberal leadership race  (Read 4285 times)
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


« on: January 31, 2023, 01:15:48 PM »

Begging Schreiner to lead the party reeks of desperation.

No kidding. Where is the logic in "we have only 8 seats and our only solution is to ask the leader of a party with 1 seat and that got just 6% of the vote election to lead us". Schreiner's main claim to fame is being a "nice guy" who everyone likes as long as he is a gadfly leading party of one. There is no reason to believe that he would have any political talent leading a serious party with competing players and interests and in any case if the OLP wants to become competitive in 905 suburbs - not sure how having a leader who is a single issue environmental fanatic who wants massive increases in carbon taxes and road tolls etc... is the solution.
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2023, 07:55:31 PM »

The thing about leaders of "micro parties" like Elizabeth May or Mike Schreiner is also that people like them because no one has ever told them not to like them. Its never been in anyone's interest to ever attack or challenge May or Schreiner and I suspect both would wilt very very quickly under the klieg lights of leading a major party that elicits attacks etc...
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2023, 09:26:38 AM »

I suspect that even without Schreiner - there will always be 5-6% of Ontarians that will vote for any part with the word "Green" in its name. Interesting that I have read zero about what Green party members and activists think of the fact that their leader is even considering ditching them for a possible OLP leadership run. You'd think the media would be all over them. And, in any other party there would be a move afoot to dump a leader who was openly considering leaving his or her own party.
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2023, 11:07:38 AM »

One thing I find very interesting is what this whole "draft Schreiner" story says about internal divisions in the OLP. Some of the people signing the letter wanting Schreiner to be leader and pretty prominent insiders from the Wynne era and yet one of the likely candidates for leader is Yasir Naqvi who was a cabinet minister in the Wynne gov't and was also president of the OLP. You would think that he would scoop up support from those establishment figures...unless maybe they all hate him want to stop him at all cost?
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2023, 12:49:36 PM »

I see people sometimes describe Green leaders in Canada as "more fiscally conservative" than the NDP. I'm not sure where people get that idea since in almost every case the Green Party has a pie in the sky platform that promises to spend way more and tax way more than the NDP would ever dare to propose.
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2023, 09:45:56 PM »

I decided to do some back of the envelope math to see what seats would flip if half of the Green vote in every constituency goes to the Liberals and the seats that flip are

Guelph (the Greens are still in second)
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte (from the PCs)
Etobicoke-Lakeshore (from the PCs)
Eglinton-Lawrence (from the PCs)
Toronto-St. Paul's (from the NDP)

PC 80
NDP 30
Liberals 12

Universal swing isn't how elections work but I have nowhere else to post this so I'll post this here.

No matter what Schreiner does, trying to direct Green voters would be like herding cats. Some are just anti-establishment types who could just as easily vote for a far right populist party, others would likely vote for a Marit Stil-led NDP - especially in Toronto. I would not assume that any Green losses would necessarily go Liberal
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2023, 10:23:09 AM »


This is a notion that I haven't yet seen voiced: Marit Stiles as an Andrea II rather than a Rachel Notley-style premier-in-waiting charismatic figurehead.  Or, most of the voiced skepticism and concern trolling I've witnessed has less to do with who she is than with the fact that she was acclaimed for the leadership.


I really don't see how its a knock against Stiles that she was acclaimed. To me its a very positive thing when someone is viewed within their party as being so talented and such a consensus choice for leader that no one else runs. She was acclaimed because she is that good. Other parties should be so lucky as to have a leader who everyne agrees from the get-go is the best person for the job!

In fact in Canadian political history almost every single time that a party has a chosen a leader by acclamation - that person has won the next election (e.g., Danny Williams, Brad Wall, Dave Barrett, Mike Harcourt, John Horgan, Roy Romanow...). 
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2023, 01:36:24 PM »

Schreiner rules himself out. I've seen Erskine-Smith in the news quite a lot, I'm skeptical of how effective a leader he would be, but he would certainly be the interesting choice.

Erskine-Smith's main claim to fame is being a maverick "non-team player" in Ottawa - and that is not usually a set of attributes that makes someone cut out to lead a party.

My understanding is that Yasir Naqvi is probably the heavy favourite. As a former party president, he has the contacts etc...
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2023, 04:12:16 PM »

Wonder if Naqvi would run in Ottawa Centre, or would be parachuted to a safer seat such as Ottawa South (if he wins).

Its a good question. If he won, it could be years before the next election and there would likely be a lot of pressure to get in the leg - the question then would be whether Fraser would be willing to resign his seat in Ottawa South to make way for Naqvi. Once elected in Ottawa South it would make sense for him to stay put there as opposed to trying to overturn a massive NDP majority in Ottawa Centre
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2023, 09:24:47 AM »

so I watched this 20 minute interview of Bonnie Crombie on The Agenda and I have to say I thought her performance was dreadful. If she is supposed to be the OLP's "great white hope" all I can say is "be careful what you wish for".

Her delivery is terrible - she talks like a municipal bureaucrat. She has no message and no vision beyond saying that her main objection to the Ford government is that it "lacks transparency". She also says elsewhere that the Wynne government erred in spending too much on child care and health care and that the Liberals need to become a centre right party that is focused on balanced budgets. I'm not sure how well that message will resonate with card carrying OLP members voting in this contest. Mind you Liberals usually value winning above anything else and if they thought it could win them the next election they'd likely be willing to outflank Pierre Poilievre on the right!

Wasn't the whole rationale behind picking Steven Del Duca as leader supposed to be to appeal to 905 and have more of a "business Liberal" type as leader - how did that turn out?   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42W5VDj0OVk
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2023, 11:06:26 AM »

From an NDP perspective I actually really hope the OLP is dumb enough to pick Crombie as leader. She would be a total turn-off to NDP/OLP switchers and would cement the NDP stranglehold on urban Ontario and the north. At most a Crombie-led OLP might pick up some seats in Mississauga or York region - but those would be seats the NDP is never going to win anyways - and she could repel voters in Brampton with her constant Brampton-bashing
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 12 queries.