Ontario Liberal leadership race

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa South was one of two seats where the OLP won with more than a 10-point margin in the 2018 wipeout. 

It's remarkably similar demographically to Ottawa West-Nepean, but Duverger's Law has worked in the NDP's favor there in the last two elections.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa South was one of two seats where the OLP won with more than a 10-point margin in the 2018 wipeout.  

It's remarkably similar demographically to Ottawa West-Nepean, but Duverger's Law has worked in the NDP's favor there in the last two elections.

It's similar socio-economically, sure, but it's much more Francophone and much more Arab, which is why the Liberals do better here. I think it also has a larger professional class, but don't quote me on that.

[King of Kensington]

Similar socioeconomically and both semi-suburban in character (similar to North York in Toronto?), but yes Ottawa South is more diverse with Blacks and Arabs being the largest minorities.


University degree

Ottawa West-Nepean  46.8%
Ottawa South  45.1%

Average income

Ottawa West-Nepean  $55,900
Ottawa South  $55,600

Visible Minority

Ottawa South  44.2%
Ottawa West-Nepean  35.2%

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa South also has twice as many Francophones.

[toaster]

Similar socioeconomically and both semi-suburban in character (similar to North York in Toronto?), but yes Ottawa South is more diverse with Blacks and Arabs being the largest minorities.


University degree

Ottawa West-Nepean  46.8%
Ottawa South  45.1%

Average income

Ottawa West-Nepean  $55,900
Ottawa South  $55,600

Visible Minority

Ottawa South  44.2%
Ottawa West-Nepean  35.2%

Lol, a quick look at Census profiles of North York ridings has average incomes 80-100k+ range, not in the 50s.  Willowdale 103k, Don Valley North 98k, Eglinton-Lawrence 95k.  Not the same.

[Hatman 🍁]

Similar socioeconomically and both semi-suburban in character (similar to North York in Toronto?), but yes Ottawa South is more diverse with Blacks and Arabs being the largest minorities.


University degree

Ottawa West-Nepean  46.8%
Ottawa South  45.1%

Average income

Ottawa West-Nepean  $55,900
Ottawa South  $55,600

Visible Minority

Ottawa South  44.2%
Ottawa West-Nepean  35.2%

Lol, a quick look at Census profiles of North York ridings has average incomes 80-100k+ range, not in the 50s.  Willowdale 103k, Don Valley North 98k, Eglinton-Lawrence 95k.  Not the same.

You are confusing average income with average household income.

Both Don Valley North and Willowdale have basically the same average incomes:
Don Valley North is $51K
Willowdale: $51K

Eglinton-Lawrence is quite wealthy though at $89K, but North York also has the very poor Black River-Humber Creek riding ($37K).

[toaster]

Oh ok, I wasn't sure when you had written Average Income, my mistake.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Toronto MP Nate Erskine-Smith launches leadership bid for Ontario Liberal Party


It's been obvious for months, but official now. NES becomes the first to declare his candidacy for the OLP leadership. Pretty well-liked and respected guy among the broad centre-left in Ontario (except some NDP activist types who see him as a faux-progressive, but NDP activists aren't voting Liberal anyway), and even some conservatives like him as a person despite disagreeing with his politics.

Now, whether he actually has the chops to lead a party, we'll have to see. Some politicians are good at getting the talking heads talking, but aren't that great at politicking, and Nate might be that kind of politician. After all, he's never been a minister or even a parl sec, so we haven't seen him in positions of making executive decisions. At the same time, if the LPC wants someone who can rally an anti-Ford coalition under the Liberal banner, he's a damn good choice.

[adma]

Toronto MP Nate Erskine-Smith launches leadership bid for Ontario Liberal Party


It's been obvious for months, but official now. NES becomes the first to declare his candidacy for the OLP leadership. Pretty well-liked and respected guy among the broad centre-left in Ontario (except some NDP activist types who see him as a faux-progressive, but NDP activists aren't voting Liberal anyway), and even some conservatives like him as a person despite disagreeing with his politics.

Now, whether he actually has the chops to lead a party, we'll have to see. Some politicians are good at getting the talking heads talking, but aren't that great at politicking, and Nate might be that kind of politician. After all, he's never been a minister or even a parl sec, so we haven't seen him in positions of making executive decisions. At the same time, if the LPC wants someone who can rally an anti-Ford coalition under the Liberal banner, he's a damn good choice.

And maybe he's positioning himself to replace Mitzie Hunter in Scarborough-Guildwood as well.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

‘We govern from right of centre’: Bonnie Crombie on how she’d lead the Ontario Liberals


Uhhh Bonnie, I think you're describing the Progressive Conservatives

[adma]

‘We govern from right of centre’: Bonnie Crombie on how she’d lead the Ontario Liberals


Uhhh Bonnie, I think you're describing the Progressive Conservatives

Yeah, as opposed to what the Chretien/Martin Liberals referred to as the "Reform Alliance" or later as the "Alliance Conservatives".   Basically, she's bidding to be the Alison Redford to Doug Ford's Danielle Smith.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I can't stand "vote for me and I'll be the same as the current guy" politicians. Crombie's critique of Wynne gov't is literally the same as what Ford used to say in 2018 - it speaks to a lack of a backbone to criticize your own party more than your opponent as you're hinting at wanting to lead said party - and the theory of "Liberals need to be centre-right to win the 905" line is a little outdated, because I'm sure Crombie knows that Justin Trudeau had a clean sweep three clean sweeps of Mississauga while running as the most left-wing Liberal leader since his father. If Crombie wants to give voters two centre-right options, they will go for the authentic centre-right option.

Well to be fair she's not entirely the same as Ford. Ford's not a NIMBY.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

‘We govern from right of centre’: Bonnie Crombie on how she’d lead the Ontario Liberals


Uhhh Bonnie, I think you're describing the Progressive Conservatives

Yeah, as opposed to what the Chretien/Martin Liberals referred to as the "Reform Alliance" or later as the "Alliance Conservatives".   Basically, she's bidding to be the Alison Redford to Doug Ford's Danielle Smith.

That analogy doesn't really work for two reasons. For one, Danielle Smith was an opposition leader, Ford is the premier. And I'm really not sure there's that much space on the centre-right, because the PCs have been pretty effective at knowing when to veer to the centre, and when to tack right. If I were a Liberal, I'd much rather my party focus on crushing the NDP and consolidating the centre-left

[adma]

‘We govern from right of centre’: Bonnie Crombie on how she’d lead the Ontario Liberals


Uhhh Bonnie, I think you're describing the Progressive Conservatives

Yeah, as opposed to what the Chretien/Martin Liberals referred to as the "Reform Alliance" or later as the "Alliance Conservatives".   Basically, she's bidding to be the Alison Redford to Doug Ford's Danielle Smith.

That analogy doesn't really work for two reasons. For one, Danielle Smith was an opposition leader, Ford is the premier. And I'm really not sure there's that much space on the centre-right, because the PCs have been pretty effective at knowing when to veer to the centre, and when to tack right. If I were a Liberal, I'd much rather my party focus on crushing the NDP and consolidating the centre-left

In that case, you can shift the metaphor to the '14 Toronto mayoral race, and say that she's bidding to be the John Tory to Doug Ford's, well, Doug Ford--and Ford was kind of "incumbent" as his brother's proxy.  (And Stiles would be Chow, '14-style.)

And of course, the right-wing-troll twittersphere loves to refer to "John Liberal".

[Ontario Tory]

I can't stand "vote for me and I'll be the same as the current guy" politicians. Crombie's critique of Wynne gov't is literally the same as what Ford used to say in 2018 - it speaks to a lack of a backbone to criticize your own party more than your opponent as you're hinting at wanting to lead said party - and the theory of "Liberals need to be centre-right to win the 905" line is a little outdated, because I'm sure Crombie knows that Justin Trudeau had a clean sweep three clean sweeps of Mississauga while running as the most left-wing Liberal leader since his father. If Crombie wants to give voters two centre-right options, they will go for the authentic centre-right option.

Well to be fair she's not entirely the same as Ford. Ford's not a NIMBY.

Of all of the Ontario provincial elections in the last two or three decades, I can't remember a single time when Ontario Liberals won an election on a left-of-centre platform, with 2014 being an exception, but that was due to Tim Hudak being a little too frank about his plan to dismiss large numbers of public sector workers.


In general, I would say OLP does better when they run on a centre to centre-right platform, as in, promising not to raise taxes (McGuinty 2003), or even promising tax cuts (McGuinty 2011).


With that said, I agree with your criticism of 'I'll be the same as the current guy' politicians. By the time the next election comes, which will likely be in 2026, people will be getting tired of Ford. There is no point in running for office if you won't promise to do anything differently than the governing party.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I can't stand "vote for me and I'll be the same as the current guy" politicians. Crombie's critique of Wynne gov't is literally the same as what Ford used to say in 2018 - it speaks to a lack of a backbone to criticize your own party more than your opponent as you're hinting at wanting to lead said party - and the theory of "Liberals need to be centre-right to win the 905" line is a little outdated, because I'm sure Crombie knows that Justin Trudeau had a clean sweep three clean sweeps of Mississauga while running as the most left-wing Liberal leader since his father. If Crombie wants to give voters two centre-right options, they will go for the authentic centre-right option.

Well to be fair she's not entirely the same as Ford. Ford's not a NIMBY.

Of all of the Ontario provincial elections in the last two or three decades, I can't remember a single time when Ontario Liberals won an election on a left-of-centre platform, with 2014 being an exception, but that was due to Tim Hudak being a little too frank about his plan to dismiss large numbers of public sector workers.


In general, I would say OLP does better when they run on a centre to centre-right platform, as in, promising not to raise taxes (McGuinty 2003), or even promising tax cuts (McGuinty 2011).

That's fair, but I think times have changed. Politics is more polarized than it used to be, and while this is somewhat anecdotal, the Trudeau era seems to have dramatically changed what the Liberal Party looks like. Many of the insiders today are progressive millennials who were inspired by Trudeau (and their hatred of Harper) to get into politics, which basically describes Erskine-Smith. Much of the Liberal base is also the same. When you look at LPC and OLP conventions for example that reliably vote for left-wing policy proposals, it's not clear to me that today's Liberals would actually accept a "centre-right" platform.

The other thing is that in McGuinty's runs, being more centrist worked in part because Liberals could still win rural areas. Ridings like Perth-Wellington, Lambton-Middlesex, Prince Edward-Hastings etc voted Liberal in his two majorities. Today, it's almost inconceivable that Liberals would win such ridings, short of a landslide. When those ridings left the Liberals in 2011, McGuinty lost his majority - Wynne won it back, not by winning back those ridings, but by maxing out the GTA (and yes, Hudak helped in that regard).

Point is, the path to a Liberal win in Ontario today looks a little different than it may have in the past, because it's a much more urban and cosmopolitan party than it used to be 20 years ago. I'm not sure a Ford-lite platform would really work for them.

[adma]

Well to be fair she's not entirely the same as Ford. Ford's not a NIMBY.

But keep in mind that that might be, indeed, his tripping point--that is, being perceived as a NIMBY is one thing, being perceived as a "Greenbelt is a scam" insensitive goon bulling ahead with pet notions for Ontario Place and Ontario Science Centre is another.  And remember: Doug Ford has *always* had that "insensitive goon" thing going--it's what galvanized Toronto voters to opt for John Tory instead in '14...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

‘We govern from right of centre’: Bonnie Crombie on how she’d lead the Ontario Liberals


Uhhh Bonnie, I think you're describing the Progressive Conservatives

Yeah, as opposed to what the Chretien/Martin Liberals referred to as the "Reform Alliance" or later as the "Alliance Conservatives".   Basically, she's bidding to be the Alison Redford to Doug Ford's Danielle Smith.

That analogy doesn't really work for two reasons. For one, Danielle Smith was an opposition leader, Ford is the premier. And I'm really not sure there's that much space on the centre-right, because the PCs have been pretty effective at knowing when to veer to the centre, and when to tack right. If I were a Liberal, I'd much rather my party focus on crushing the NDP and consolidating the centre-left

In that case, you can shift the metaphor to the '14 Toronto mayoral race, and say that she's bidding to be the John Tory to Doug Ford's, well, Doug Ford--and Ford was kind of "incumbent" as his brother's proxy.  (And Stiles would be Chow, '14-style.)

And of course, the right-wing-troll twittersphere loves to refer to "John Liberal".

Sure that's possible, but contingent on the NDP going the way of Olivia Chow in 2014, which we can't guarantee. There's certainly loads of historical precedent for Ontarians voting Liberal to kick out the Tories because "the NDP can't win", but the NDP is in a much stronger position today than it was in 2003 or 1985 - and for that matter, Grits are much weaker. If 2026 is a change election, the NDP is in at least as good a position as the Liberals to be the beneficiaries.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Well to be fair she's not entirely the same as Ford. Ford's not a NIMBY.

But keep in mind that that might be, indeed, his tripping point--that is, being perceived as a NIMBY is one thing, being perceived as a "Greenbelt is a scam" insensitive goon bulling ahead with pet notions for Ontario Place and Ontario Science Centre is another.  And remember: Doug Ford has *always* had that "insensitive goon" thing going--it's what galvanized Toronto voters to opt for John Tory instead in '14...

The NIMBY thing is just my spin on it, I don't think it matters much in a provincial election (it should but I doubt it)

[adma]

Well to be fair she's not entirely the same as Ford. Ford's not a NIMBY.

But keep in mind that that might be, indeed, his tripping point--that is, being perceived as a NIMBY is one thing, being perceived as a "Greenbelt is a scam" insensitive goon bulling ahead with pet notions for Ontario Place and Ontario Science Centre is another.  And remember: Doug Ford has *always* had that "insensitive goon" thing going--it's what galvanized Toronto voters to opt for John Tory instead in '14...

The NIMBY thing is just my spin on it, I don't think it matters much in a provincial election (it should but I doubt it)

Well, let's keep in mind that the downfall of the Harris regime (even if by way of left-holding-the-bag Ernie Eves proxy) in '83, and that of Harper federally in '95, was the result of the insensitive-goon-ism getting the better of the party.  Or, promising the 413 might be a vote-getter; but "Greenbelt is a scam" is more of a net vote-*repeller*, in the bigger picture.  (And as with Harper and w/Harris/Eves, it might as well go beyond the leader and to the "party operatives"--such as Harper's "boys in short pants", the Sun News Network types, etc.)

[Benjamin Frank]

I can't stand "vote for me and I'll be the same as the current guy" politicians. Crombie's critique of Wynne gov't is literally the same as what Ford used to say in 2018 - it speaks to a lack of a backbone to criticize your own party more than your opponent as you're hinting at wanting to lead said party - and the theory of "Liberals need to be centre-right to win the 905" line is a little outdated, because I'm sure Crombie knows that Justin Trudeau had a clean sweep three clean sweeps of Mississauga while running as the most left-wing Liberal leader since his father. If Crombie wants to give voters two centre-right options, they will go for the authentic centre-right option.

Well to be fair she's not entirely the same as Ford. Ford's not a NIMBY.

Of all of the Ontario provincial elections in the last two or three decades, I can't remember a single time when Ontario Liberals won an election on a left-of-centre platform, with 2014 being an exception, but that was due to Tim Hudak being a little too frank about his plan to dismiss large numbers of public sector workers.


In general, I would say OLP does better when they run on a centre to centre-right platform, as in, promising not to raise taxes (McGuinty 2003), or even promising tax cuts (McGuinty 2011).

That's fair, but I think times have changed. Politics is more polarized than it used to be, and while this is somewhat anecdotal, the Trudeau era seems to have dramatically changed what the Liberal Party looks like. Many of the insiders today are progressive millennials who were inspired by Trudeau (and their hatred of Harper) to get into politics, which basically describes Erskine-Smith. Much of the Liberal base is also the same. When you look at LPC and OLP conventions for example that reliably vote for left-wing policy proposals, it's not clear to me that today's Liberals would actually accept a "centre-right" platform.

The other thing is that in McGuinty's runs, being more centrist worked in part because Liberals could still win rural areas. Ridings like Perth-Wellington, Lambton-Middlesex, Prince Edward-Hastings etc voted Liberal in his two majorities. Today, it's almost inconceivable that Liberals would win such ridings, short of a landslide. When those ridings left the Liberals in 2011, McGuinty lost his majority - Wynne won it back, not by winning back those ridings, but by maxing out the GTA (and yes, Hudak helped in that regard).

Point is, the path to a Liberal win in Ontario today looks a little different than it may have in the past, because it's a much more urban and cosmopolitan party than it used to be 20 years ago. I'm not sure a Ford-lite platform would really work for them.

2003 and 2007 pretty much were landslides. Both 70/100 seats approximately.

The article above mentioned Ted Hsu also announced he's running. For what it's worth (nothing) I endorse him.

https://www.tedhsu.ca/

[adma]

Another thing to keep in mind re OLP "potential" is that there is, and will be, a larger share of seats in the GTA (and other urban nodes) to "max out" on even compared to '14.  (And if it's still not enough for a majority--look at it this way: even a professed "right of centre" Liberal party isn't likely to rule out alliances w/NDP or Green in the name of governing power.)

[lilTommy]

Bonnie Crombie would have the most impact on the PCs but the NDP must also be wary, but a Crombie OLP is a big threat to the PCs

Crombie has already indicated that she feels the OLP is too left-leaning, and wants to return to the centre, looking more like Centre-Right fiscally but remaining socially progressive (ugh). This is a big threat to the PCs in the 905.
1) Crombie IS the voice of Peel but also greater 905, Mississauga is now much more in play, and Brampton too as the NDP is still strong there (NDP was second in two, and OLP 2nd in 3 seats, all three parties over/at the 20% in each seat) If the OLP is campaign to the right of the NDP they are pulling from the PCs, and this could lead to the NDP taking back at least Brampton East), York region seats are also going to be targeted, due to Crombie's name, but here you have mostly OLP/PC fights.

2) Crombie's Name alone give her an edge, this is where the NDP need to worry as Crombie is more well known then Stiles due to her profile outside of QP. BUT the saving grace to some degree for the NDP is that a Crombie OLP is playing in the PCs sandbox and not so much the NDPs... in Toronto that may mean the NDPs seats are mostly safe-ish as they are the most urban/progressive save SSW (safer then) and HRBC. Tor-SPs is one they have to watch too since it's been close twice now. This could mean YSW is also going to be close but lean-NDP. The PCs have to worry about mid-town like EL, most of North York and perhaps Etobicoke spillover, particularly Et.Lakeshore. Basically all their Toronto seats.

I'm not sure what impact Crombie would have in say Eastern Ontario/Ottawa? Nepean and GPR would likely fall with a stronger leader for the OLP.

Crombie OLP, I know they want a Federal 2015 to happen and there is precedent for the Liberals to rise again, If they hold their vote which was second (FPTP hurt them bad) can they gaining in the 905, Toronto? Yes and enough to create a minority. Enough to win outright, probably not. BUT the OLP is loath to allow the NDP to lead a minority, but that means PC minority again, which "devil" are they willing to side with. LOL

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't stand "vote for me and I'll be the same as the current guy" politicians. Crombie's critique of Wynne gov't is literally the same as what Ford used to say in 2018 - it speaks to a lack of a backbone to criticize your own party more than your opponent as you're hinting at wanting to lead said party - and the theory of "Liberals need to be centre-right to win the 905" line is a little outdated, because I'm sure Crombie knows that Justin Trudeau had a clean sweep three clean sweeps of Mississauga while running as the most left-wing Liberal leader since his father. If Crombie wants to give voters two centre-right options, they will go for the authentic centre-right option.

Well to be fair she's not entirely the same as Ford. Ford's not a NIMBY.

Of all of the Ontario provincial elections in the last two or three decades, I can't remember a single time when Ontario Liberals won an election on a left-of-centre platform, with 2014 being an exception, but that was due to Tim Hudak being a little too frank about his plan to dismiss large numbers of public sector workers.


In general, I would say OLP does better when they run on a centre to centre-right platform, as in, promising not to raise taxes (McGuinty 2003), or even promising tax cuts (McGuinty 2011).

That's fair, but I think times have changed. Politics is more polarized than it used to be, and while this is somewhat anecdotal, the Trudeau era seems to have dramatically changed what the Liberal Party looks like. Many of the insiders today are progressive millennials who were inspired by Trudeau (and their hatred of Harper) to get into politics, which basically describes Erskine-Smith. Much of the Liberal base is also the same. When you look at LPC and OLP conventions for example that reliably vote for left-wing policy proposals, it's not clear to me that today's Liberals would actually accept a "centre-right" platform.

The other thing is that in McGuinty's runs, being more centrist worked in part because Liberals could still win rural areas. Ridings like Perth-Wellington, Lambton-Middlesex, Prince Edward-Hastings etc voted Liberal in his two majorities. Today, it's almost inconceivable that Liberals would win such ridings, short of a landslide. When those ridings left the Liberals in 2011, McGuinty lost his majority - Wynne won it back, not by winning back those ridings, but by maxing out the GTA (and yes, Hudak helped in that regard).

Point is, the path to a Liberal win in Ontario today looks a little different than it may have in the past, because it's a much more urban and cosmopolitan party than it used to be 20 years ago. I'm not sure a Ford-lite platform would really work for them.

2003 and 2007 pretty much were landslides. Both 70/100 seats approximately.

The article above mentioned Ted Hsu also announced he's running. For what it's worth (nothing) I endorse him.

https://www.tedhsu.ca/

The Liberals aren't winning back those ancestral Liberal ridings back any time soon due to realignment. The path to victory is indeed the Wynne path - sweeping the GTA.

Crombie's strategy is a bold one, considering there are more swing voters on the centre-left than the centre-right. But maybe if she focuses on the 905 suburbs, and the NDP focuses on keeping their seats, the two parties can force a Tory minority government? That's the ideal situation, but would involve Ontarians voting tactically.

[DL]

so I watched this 20 minute interview of Bonnie Crombie on The Agenda and I have to say I thought her performance was dreadful. If she is supposed to be the OLP's "great white hope" all I can say is "be careful what you wish for".

Her delivery is terrible - she talks like a municipal bureaucrat. She has no message and no vision beyond saying that her main objection to the Ford government is that it "lacks transparency". She also says elsewhere that the Wynne government erred in spending too much on child care and health care and that the Liberals need to become a centre right party that is focused on balanced budgets. I'm not sure how well that message will resonate with card carrying OLP members voting in this contest. Mind you Liberals usually value winning above anything else and if they thought it could win them the next election they'd likely be willing to outflank Pierre Poilievre on the right!

Wasn't the whole rationale behind picking Steven Del Duca as leader supposed to be to appeal to 905 and have more of a "business Liberal" type as leader - how did that turn out?   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42W5VDj0OVk