Ontario Liberal leadership race

[King of Kensington]

After Schreiner, the most prominent Green elected official in the province is Toronto city councillor Dianne Saxe.  I believe she had considered running for the Ontario Liberals.

[adma]

I decided to do some back of the envelope math to see what seats would flip if half of the Green vote in every constituency goes to the Liberals and the seats that flip are

Guelph (the Greens are still in second)
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte (from the PCs)
Etobicoke-Lakeshore (from the PCs)
Eglinton-Lawrence (from the PCs)
Toronto-St. Paul's (from the NDP)

PC 80
NDP 30
Liberals 12

Universal swing isn't how elections work but I have nowhere else to post this so I'll post this here.

And even that's more of a "statistical exercise" than anything.  Eglinton-Lawrence and Toronto-St Paul's would be lowest-hanging-fruit Green or no Green (i.e. the sort of hitherto "natural" seats which the Libs had "no business losing" last year), while BSOM had an exceptional star-candidate circumstance (Barrie's mayor) and Etobicoke-Lakeshore also benefited from supertargeting + a weaker-than-usual PC incumbent foundation (that is, sub-40% in '18)...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I see people sometimes describe Green leaders in Canada as "more fiscally conservative" than the NDP. I'm not sure where people get that idea since in almost every case the Green Party has a pie in the sky platform that promises to spend way more and tax way more than the NDP would ever dare to propose.

"Fiscally conservative" isn't the right word because you're right, Green promises tend to be the opposite. I can't think of a word to properly describe it, but it's more stylistic than policy-based.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The last thing I'll say about Schreiner (unless he actually runs, which I doubt) is that he's a complete outsider to the Liberal Party. Political parties, especially legacy parties like the Liberals, are ecosystems of their own with thousands of insiders that you need to manage effectively.

Anyway, one advantage for the Libs is that they know who is going to lead the NDP. The next leader should be someone who can offer something that Marit Stiles can't, to excite ABC voters. Their federal counterparts struck gold in 2015 with Trudeau, someone whose platform was virtually interchangeable with Mulcair's, except he was younger, more handsome, more famous, and 100x more energetic. There's not going to be someone of Trudeau's caliber, I honestly can't think of anyone who can do this. But if they can find someone who can at least be on the same level as Stiles, be that rhetorically, name-recognition, experience, whatever, the longevity of the Liberal brand just might be enough. Del Duca was supposed to do that, except he somehow turned out to be even more underwhelming than Horwath.

[DL]

I decided to do some back of the envelope math to see what seats would flip if half of the Green vote in every constituency goes to the Liberals and the seats that flip are

Guelph (the Greens are still in second)
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte (from the PCs)
Etobicoke-Lakeshore (from the PCs)
Eglinton-Lawrence (from the PCs)
Toronto-St. Paul's (from the NDP)

PC 80
NDP 30
Liberals 12

Universal swing isn't how elections work but I have nowhere else to post this so I'll post this here.

No matter what Schreiner does, trying to direct Green voters would be like herding cats. Some are just anti-establishment types who could just as easily vote for a far right populist party, others would likely vote for a Marit Stil-led NDP - especially in Toronto. I would not assume that any Green losses would necessarily go Liberal

[adma]

Anyway, one advantage for the Libs is that they know who is going to lead the NDP. The next leader should be someone who can offer something that Marit Stiles can't, to excite ABC voters. Their federal counterparts struck gold in 2015 with Trudeau, someone whose platform was virtually interchangeable with Mulcair's, except he was younger, more handsome, more famous, and 100x more energetic. There's not going to be someone of Trudeau's caliber, I honestly can't think of anyone who can do this. But if they can find someone who can at least be on the same level as Stiles, be that rhetorically, name-recognition, experience, whatever, the longevity of the Liberal brand just might be enough. Del Duca was supposed to do that, except he somehow turned out to be even more underwhelming than Horwath.

This is a notion that I haven't yet seen voiced: Marit Stiles as an Andrea II rather than a Rachel Notley-style premier-in-waiting charismatic figurehead.  Or, most of the voiced skepticism and concern trolling I've witnessed has less to do with who she is than with the fact that she was acclaimed for the leadership.

Yeah, the NDP can't win; forever the "Shut up, Meg" party whenever it tries to assert its opposition power, even when it comes to addressing Ford Tory shenanigans re developers and the greenbelt and what have you--though the more generic deterioration of major-media provincial political coverage, and the "reach" thereof, in recent years has something to answer for (not to mention Doug Ford's direct-to-customer populist ability to harness said disconnect on his behalf).  Thus Ford opposition becomes presented as a grassroots people's crusade, independent of anything Queen's Park.  

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Some are just anti-establishment types who could just as easily vote for a far right populist party

Oh yeah. The mother of a very close buddy of mine is...let's just say, she falls on the 'kooky' end of the spectrum and preoccupies herself with things like GMOs supposedly causing birth defects and things of that nature. She used to be a big supporter of the Green Party then turned into a PPC supporter in 2021. Just one example, but clearly she's not even a 'green' voter in the environmentalist sense, or else she wouldn't vote for a climate denier.

[DL]

This is a notion that I haven't yet seen voiced: Marit Stiles as an Andrea II rather than a Rachel Notley-style premier-in-waiting charismatic figurehead.  Or, most of the voiced skepticism and concern trolling I've witnessed has less to do with who she is than with the fact that she was acclaimed for the leadership.

I really don't see how its a knock against Stiles that she was acclaimed. To me its a very positive thing when someone is viewed within their party as being so talented and such a consensus choice for leader that no one else runs. She was acclaimed because she is that good. Other parties should be so lucky as to have a leader who everyne agrees from the get-go is the best person for the job!

In fact in Canadian political history almost every single time that a party has a chosen a leader by acclamation - that person has won the next election (e.g., Danny Williams, Brad Wall, Dave Barrett, Mike Harcourt, John Horgan, Roy Romanow...). 

[King of Kensington]

Some are just anti-establishment types who could just as easily vote for a far right populist party

Oh yeah. The mother of a very close buddy of mine is...let's just say, she falls on the 'kooky' end of the spectrum and preoccupies herself with things like GMOs supposedly causing birth defects and things of that nature. She used to be a big supporter of the Green Party then turned into a PPC supporter in 2021. Just one example, but clearly she's not even a 'green' voter in the environmentalist sense, or else she wouldn't vote for a climate denier.

I assume she's an anti-vaxxer and went down the wellness to QAnon pipeline.

Pre-Covid, antivaxxers didn't really have a political home and could be found across the spectrum.  But "wellness" has been a conveyor belt to the far right.

[Krago]

I really don't see how its a knock against Stiles that she was acclaimed. To me its a very positive thing when someone is viewed within their party as being so talented and such a consensus choice for leader that no one else runs. She was acclaimed because she is that good. Other parties should be so lucky as to have a leader who everyne agrees from the get-go is the best person for the job!

In fact in Canadian political history almost every single time that a party has a chosen a leader by acclamation - that person has won the next election (e.g., Danny Williams, Brad Wall, Dave Barrett, Mike Harcourt, John Horgan, Roy Romanow...). 

... Michael Ignatieff ...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Anyway, one advantage for the Libs is that they know who is going to lead the NDP. The next leader should be someone who can offer something that Marit Stiles can't, to excite ABC voters. Their federal counterparts struck gold in 2015 with Trudeau, someone whose platform was virtually interchangeable with Mulcair's, except he was younger, more handsome, more famous, and 100x more energetic. There's not going to be someone of Trudeau's caliber, I honestly can't think of anyone who can do this. But if they can find someone who can at least be on the same level as Stiles, be that rhetorically, name-recognition, experience, whatever, the longevity of the Liberal brand just might be enough. Del Duca was supposed to do that, except he somehow turned out to be even more underwhelming than Horwath.

This is a notion that I haven't yet seen voiced: Marit Stiles as an Andrea II rather than a Rachel Notley-style premier-in-waiting charismatic figurehead.  Or, most of the voiced skepticism and concern trolling I've witnessed has less to do with who she is than with the fact that she was acclaimed for the leadership.

That's not at all what I was suggesting lol. I think Marit Stiles is a huge step up from Horwath. What I mean is that because the Liberals know who the NDP leader in the next election will be, they know who they have to beat to get the ABC vote around them. So in that sense, the OLP should focus more on who is most likely to beat Stiles for the ABC vote, because it wouldn't take much of a drop for the PCs for a strong ABC Coalition to win.

[adma]

Anyway, one advantage for the Libs is that they know who is going to lead the NDP. The next leader should be someone who can offer something that Marit Stiles can't, to excite ABC voters. Their federal counterparts struck gold in 2015 with Trudeau, someone whose platform was virtually interchangeable with Mulcair's, except he was younger, more handsome, more famous, and 100x more energetic. There's not going to be someone of Trudeau's caliber, I honestly can't think of anyone who can do this. But if they can find someone who can at least be on the same level as Stiles, be that rhetorically, name-recognition, experience, whatever, the longevity of the Liberal brand just might be enough. Del Duca was supposed to do that, except he somehow turned out to be even more underwhelming than Horwath.

This is a notion that I haven't yet seen voiced: Marit Stiles as an Andrea II rather than a Rachel Notley-style premier-in-waiting charismatic figurehead.  Or, most of the voiced skepticism and concern trolling I've witnessed has less to do with who she is than with the fact that she was acclaimed for the leadership.

That's not at all what I was suggesting lol. I think Marit Stiles is a huge step up from Horwath. What I mean is that because the Liberals know who the NDP leader in the next election will be, they know who they have to beat to get the ABC vote around them. So in that sense, the OLP should focus more on who is most likely to beat Stiles for the ABC vote, because it wouldn't take much of a drop for the PCs for a strong ABC Coalition to win.

Still, I'm referring to the inability-to-excite-ABC-voters part.  So if, implicitly, Marit Stiles is a "huge step up" and she's *still* unable to engender that kind of excitement, well...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Anyway, one advantage for the Libs is that they know who is going to lead the NDP. The next leader should be someone who can offer something that Marit Stiles can't, to excite ABC voters. Their federal counterparts struck gold in 2015 with Trudeau, someone whose platform was virtually interchangeable with Mulcair's, except he was younger, more handsome, more famous, and 100x more energetic. There's not going to be someone of Trudeau's caliber, I honestly can't think of anyone who can do this. But if they can find someone who can at least be on the same level as Stiles, be that rhetorically, name-recognition, experience, whatever, the longevity of the Liberal brand just might be enough. Del Duca was supposed to do that, except he somehow turned out to be even more underwhelming than Horwath.

This is a notion that I haven't yet seen voiced: Marit Stiles as an Andrea II rather than a Rachel Notley-style premier-in-waiting charismatic figurehead.  Or, most of the voiced skepticism and concern trolling I've witnessed has less to do with who she is than with the fact that she was acclaimed for the leadership.

That's not at all what I was suggesting lol. I think Marit Stiles is a huge step up from Horwath. What I mean is that because the Liberals know who the NDP leader in the next election will be, they know who they have to beat to get the ABC vote around them. So in that sense, the OLP should focus more on who is most likely to beat Stiles for the ABC vote, because it wouldn't take much of a drop for the PCs for a strong ABC Coalition to win.

Still, I'm referring to the inability-to-excite-ABC-voters part.  So if, implicitly, Marit Stiles is a "huge step up" and she's *still* unable to engender that kind of excitement, well...

I wouldn't say she's unable to excite ABC voters, although that obviously remains to be seen. If anything, the Liberals probably have a bigger task on their hands. Right now, literally the only thing the OLP has over the NDP is brand loyalty and generally being taken more seriously as a party. Like you said that's a major advantage, but the disadvantages are also clear. Much less funding, no party status, and such a scarcity of talent that people are considering a guy who doesn't even affiliate with said party. If Ontarians want Ford out in 2026 and the Liberals don't have a solid leader, I think the NDP will close the deal by default (at least enough to deny Ford a majority).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Liberals trying to recruit Schreiner is one of the most pathetic things i've seen a "major" political party try and do.

[Benjamin Frank]

Anyway, one advantage for the Libs is that they know who is going to lead the NDP. The next leader should be someone who can offer something that Marit Stiles can't, to excite ABC voters. Their federal counterparts struck gold in 2015 with Trudeau, someone whose platform was virtually interchangeable with Mulcair's, except he was younger, more handsome, more famous, and 100x more energetic. There's not going to be someone of Trudeau's caliber, I honestly can't think of anyone who can do this. But if they can find someone who can at least be on the same level as Stiles, be that rhetorically, name-recognition, experience, whatever, the longevity of the Liberal brand just might be enough. Del Duca was supposed to do that, except he somehow turned out to be even more underwhelming than Horwath.

This is a notion that I haven't yet seen voiced: Marit Stiles as an Andrea II rather than a Rachel Notley-style premier-in-waiting charismatic figurehead.  Or, most of the voiced skepticism and concern trolling I've witnessed has less to do with who she is than with the fact that she was acclaimed for the leadership.

That's not at all what I was suggesting lol. I think Marit Stiles is a huge step up from Horwath. What I mean is that because the Liberals know who the NDP leader in the next election will be, they know who they have to beat to get the ABC vote around them. So in that sense, the OLP should focus more on who is most likely to beat Stiles for the ABC vote, because it wouldn't take much of a drop for the PCs for a strong ABC Coalition to win.

You're referring to what's called in game theory as 'second mover advantage.'
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/mde.3494

I'm not sure it applies here, but you could be right.

[adma]

Anyway, one advantage for the Libs is that they know who is going to lead the NDP. The next leader should be someone who can offer something that Marit Stiles can't, to excite ABC voters. Their federal counterparts struck gold in 2015 with Trudeau, someone whose platform was virtually interchangeable with Mulcair's, except he was younger, more handsome, more famous, and 100x more energetic. There's not going to be someone of Trudeau's caliber, I honestly can't think of anyone who can do this. But if they can find someone who can at least be on the same level as Stiles, be that rhetorically, name-recognition, experience, whatever, the longevity of the Liberal brand just might be enough. Del Duca was supposed to do that, except he somehow turned out to be even more underwhelming than Horwath.

This is a notion that I haven't yet seen voiced: Marit Stiles as an Andrea II rather than a Rachel Notley-style premier-in-waiting charismatic figurehead.  Or, most of the voiced skepticism and concern trolling I've witnessed has less to do with who she is than with the fact that she was acclaimed for the leadership.

That's not at all what I was suggesting lol. I think Marit Stiles is a huge step up from Horwath. What I mean is that because the Liberals know who the NDP leader in the next election will be, they know who they have to beat to get the ABC vote around them. So in that sense, the OLP should focus more on who is most likely to beat Stiles for the ABC vote, because it wouldn't take much of a drop for the PCs for a strong ABC Coalition to win.

Still, I'm referring to the inability-to-excite-ABC-voters part.  So if, implicitly, Marit Stiles is a "huge step up" and she's *still* unable to engender that kind of excitement, well...

I wouldn't say she's unable to excite ABC voters, although that obviously remains to be seen. If anything, the Liberals probably have a bigger task on their hands. Right now, literally the only thing the OLP has over the NDP is brand loyalty and generally being taken more seriously as a party. Like you said that's a major advantage, but the disadvantages are also clear. Much less funding, no party status, and such a scarcity of talent that people are considering a guy who doesn't even affiliate with said party. If Ontarians want Ford out in 2026 and the Liberals don't have a solid leader, I think the NDP will close the deal by default (at least enough to deny Ford a majority).

Rereading your original quote, I probably mentally projected a "that is," predicate to your "to excite ABC voters".

But yes, as per my earlier point about the ONDP as the "shut up, Meg" party: it could well be that Stiles "can't win", much in the manner of Horwath--who as I said, was never really the dud leader she's often claimed to be; more that she was a more-than-competent leader of a party that was never seriously expected to form government...until it came to the brink of doing so.  (It'd be like the inverse of, federally, Audrey McLaughlin and Alexa McDonough both being viewable as "duds" because the NDP was at its electoral nadir under their watch--yet whatever the actual ballot-box or seat-count results, w/Alexa came a "renewal energy" that was really a foundation for the Jack Layton era.)  And that Horwath nearly blew her Hamilton mayoral race has more to do with amalgamated Hamilton (and Ottawa) being like unicity Winnipeg; that is, "socialist hordes" running for mayor facing a glass ceiling...

[Benjamin Frank]

Anyway, one advantage for the Libs is that they know who is going to lead the NDP. The next leader should be someone who can offer something that Marit Stiles can't, to excite ABC voters. Their federal counterparts struck gold in 2015 with Trudeau, someone whose platform was virtually interchangeable with Mulcair's, except he was younger, more handsome, more famous, and 100x more energetic. There's not going to be someone of Trudeau's caliber, I honestly can't think of anyone who can do this. But if they can find someone who can at least be on the same level as Stiles, be that rhetorically, name-recognition, experience, whatever, the longevity of the Liberal brand just might be enough. Del Duca was supposed to do that, except he somehow turned out to be even more underwhelming than Horwath.

This is a notion that I haven't yet seen voiced: Marit Stiles as an Andrea II rather than a Rachel Notley-style premier-in-waiting charismatic figurehead.  Or, most of the voiced skepticism and concern trolling I've witnessed has less to do with who she is than with the fact that she was acclaimed for the leadership.

That's not at all what I was suggesting lol. I think Marit Stiles is a huge step up from Horwath. What I mean is that because the Liberals know who the NDP leader in the next election will be, they know who they have to beat to get the ABC vote around them. So in that sense, the OLP should focus more on who is most likely to beat Stiles for the ABC vote, because it wouldn't take much of a drop for the PCs for a strong ABC Coalition to win.

Still, I'm referring to the inability-to-excite-ABC-voters part.  So if, implicitly, Marit Stiles is a "huge step up" and she's *still* unable to engender that kind of excitement, well...

I wouldn't say she's unable to excite ABC voters, although that obviously remains to be seen. If anything, the Liberals probably have a bigger task on their hands. Right now, literally the only thing the OLP has over the NDP is brand loyalty and generally being taken more seriously as a party. Like you said that's a major advantage, but the disadvantages are also clear. Much less funding, no party status, and such a scarcity of talent that people are considering a guy who doesn't even affiliate with said party. If Ontarians want Ford out in 2026 and the Liberals don't have a solid leader, I think the NDP will close the deal by default (at least enough to deny Ford a majority).

Rereading your original quote, I probably mentally projected a "that is," predicate to your "to excite ABC voters".

But yes, as per my earlier point about the ONDP as the "shut up, Meg" party: it could well be that Stiles "can't win", much in the manner of Horwath--who as I said, was never really the dud leader she's often claimed to be; more that she was a more-than-competent leader of a party that was never seriously expected to form government...until it came to the brink of doing so.  (It'd be like the inverse of, federally, Audrey McLaughlin and Alexa McDonough both being viewable as "duds" because the NDP was at its electoral nadir under their watch--yet whatever the actual ballot-box or seat-count results, w/Alexa came a "renewal energy" that was really a foundation for the Jack Layton era.)  And that Horwath nearly blew her Hamilton mayoral race has more to do with amalgamated Hamilton (and Ottawa) being like unicity Winnipeg; that is, "socialist hordes" running for mayor facing a glass ceiling...

I met Audrey McLaughlin once. She's a very intelligent person and seemed to be a nice person as well. She was really in an impossible situation in the 1993 election, but handled herself with total class and exhibited a great deal of energy and effort.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Schreiner rules himself out. I've seen Erskine-Smith in the news quite a lot, I'm skeptical of how effective a leader he would be, but he would certainly be the interesting choice.

[DL]

Schreiner rules himself out. I've seen Erskine-Smith in the news quite a lot, I'm skeptical of how effective a leader he would be, but he would certainly be the interesting choice.

Erskine-Smith's main claim to fame is being a maverick "non-team player" in Ottawa - and that is not usually a set of attributes that makes someone cut out to lead a party.

My understanding is that Yasir Naqvi is probably the heavy favourite. As a former party president, he has the contacts etc...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Schreiner rules himself out. I've seen Erskine-Smith in the news quite a lot, I'm skeptical of how effective a leader he would be, but he would certainly be the interesting choice.

Erskine-Smith's main claim to fame is being a maverick "non-team player" in Ottawa - and that is not usually a set of attributes that makes someone cut out to lead a party.

My understanding is that Yasir Naqvi is probably the heavy favourite. As a former party president, he has the contacts etc...

That's why I doubt Erskine-Smith's chops, but I find that he's generally popular with base-level Liberals, because his mavericky votes are usually on things most Liberals align with him on, but the leadership doesn't act on out of political considerations. His initial resistance to the Emergencies Act is an exception where he wasn't siding with your average Liberal, but on other things like drug decriminalization etc, he has the pulse of the party's activist base.

Naqvi definitely has the superior resume as far as leadership though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wonder if Naqvi would run in Ottawa Centre, or would be parachuted to a safer seat such as Ottawa South (if he wins).

[DL]

Wonder if Naqvi would run in Ottawa Centre, or would be parachuted to a safer seat such as Ottawa South (if he wins).

Its a good question. If he won, it could be years before the next election and there would likely be a lot of pressure to get in the leg - the question then would be whether Fraser would be willing to resign his seat in Ottawa South to make way for Naqvi. Once elected in Ottawa South it would make sense for him to stay put there as opposed to trying to overturn a massive NDP majority in Ottawa Centre

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly, I know Naqvi sent one of his minions to the redistribution hearings here because his home had been moved to a different riding (of course this was not the excuse he used, it was some BS about being connected by the Rideau River to the rest of the riding of something). It was a successful pitch though, and his neighbourhood was re-united with the riding. It would've been all for not if he runs in Ottawa South.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Wonder if Naqvi would run in Ottawa Centre, or would be parachuted to a safer seat such as Ottawa South (if he wins).

Its a good question. If he won, it could be years before the next election and there would likely be a lot of pressure to get in the leg - the question then would be whether Fraser would be willing to resign his seat in Ottawa South to make way for Naqvi. Once elected in Ottawa South it would make sense for him to stay put there as opposed to trying to overturn a massive NDP majority in Ottawa Centre

But if Fraser resigns, who will serve as the OLP interim leader in 2026-27?

Jokes aside, it will depend on whether Fraser wants to stay in the caucus. He's in his mid-60s and Canadian politicians rarely stick around past retirement age, so he just might decide that he's done with politics and let Naqvi take his seat in this case. Of course, any Liberal would be a shoe-in in Ottawa South, it would definitely help the leader to not have to worry too much about winning his own seat.

[adma]

I wouldn't be surprised if Fraser steps aside--it seems like he's a born political placeholder, first for the McGuinty clan following Dalton's resignation, and since 2018 as caucus leader within the legislature.  So, if he's the chosen placeholder for Naqvi, perfect...