Has Desantis done to Florida what George W Bush did to Texas in the late 90s?

[Cyrusman]

Before the late 90s/2000, Texas was viewed as a swingish state. George W Bush basically helped turn it from a swingish state to a solid red state for the next two decades.

Has Ron DeSantis essentially done to Florida what Bush did to Texas and turn Florida from swingish state to a solid red state?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Btw there are many similarities between the 1998 TX Dems and 2022 FL Dems but one huge difference and that is the 2022 FL Dems were more or less a party that basically tried all it could to keep the dam from bursting for years but no longer had the ability to do so, and the dam just burst.

On the other hand Texas Democrats as late as 1990 still dominated state elections in Texas and by 1998 they were all but dead in statewide races. It was like an 2010s Arkansas Dems Collapse happening but to a far far bigger state

[Devils30]

Btw there are many similarities between the 1998 TX Dems and 2022 FL Dems but one huge difference and that is the 2022 FL Dems were more or less a party that basically tried all it could to keep the dam from bursting for years but no longer had the ability to do so, and the dam just burst.

On the other hand Texas Democrats as late as 1990 still dominated state elections in Texas and by 1998 they were all but dead in statewide races. It was like an 2010s Arkansas Dems Collapse happening but to a far far bigger state

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Texas

1994 Dems had one of the best gerrymanders in recent memory.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think early 2000's Arizona is a better comparison. The GOP will likely continue to do well (could crack double-digits in terms of margin during a good year nationally) but I anticipate that many of the boomers dying off and a slowing influx of new residents (plus climate refugees leaving the state) might trend it back towards the Dem level sometime around 2040.

[pbrower2a]

The tendency away from the Democratic Party was already well underway in Texas with the elections of Governor Bill Clements and Senator John Tower. Conservative Democrats were switching to the GOP.

Tellingly, Bill Clinton, from a part of Arkansas very close to Texas, barely lost Texas twice in landslide elections.   

[Del Tachi]

The Texas House did not flip to the GOP until after George Bush left office, in 2002. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

The Texas House did not flip to the GOP until after George Bush left office, in 2002. 

The Texas democrats were long but dead in statewide elections by then , it’s just that they had gerrymandered it as hell in 1991 .

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

It would be more accurate to suggest that Jeb Bush played a bigger role in the RFL's growth than DeSantis -- compounded by the fact that, as we saw in 2000 and 2018, Florida Democrats are stupid and don't know how to format ballots properly.

The Democratic Party is also finally starting to move left. That sadly hasn't counteracted the GOP's own extremist elements, but "socialism" is a cuss word to Florida Cubans whether you're referring to Venezuelan socialism or Nordic market socialism.

What confuses me is a chunk of all these new transplants have to be seniors. But OSR recently said seniors are trending left now. I'd appreciate any evidence that this is true, but I am curious how Democrats could be sliding in Florida if they're improving with olds.

Btw there are many similarities between the 1998 TX Dems and 2022 FL Dems but one huge difference and that is the 2022 FL Dems were more or less a party that basically tried all it could to keep the dam from bursting for years but no longer had the ability to do so, and the dam just burst.

On the other hand Texas Democrats as late as 1990 still dominated state elections in Texas and by 1998 they were all but dead in statewide races. It was like an 2010s Arkansas Dems Collapse happening but to a far far bigger state

[OSR stands with Israel]

It would be more accurate to suggest that Jeb Bush played a bigger role in the RFL's growth than DeSantis -- compounded by the fact that, as we saw in 2000 and 2018, Florida Democrats are stupid and don't know how to format ballots properly.

The Democratic Party is also finally starting to move left. That sadly hasn't counteracted the GOP's own extremist elements, but "socialism" is a cuss word to Florida Cubans whether you're referring to Venezuelan socialism or Nordic market socialism.

What confuses me is a chunk of all these new transplants have to be seniors. But OSR recently said seniors are trending left now. I'd appreciate any evidence that this is true, but I am curious how Democrats could be sliding in Florida if they're improving with olds.

Btw there are many similarities between the 1998 TX Dems and 2022 FL Dems but one huge difference and that is the 2022 FL Dems were more or less a party that basically tried all it could to keep the dam from bursting for years but no longer had the ability to do so, and the dam just burst.

On the other hand Texas Democrats as late as 1990 still dominated state elections in Texas and by 1998 they were all but dead in statewide races. It was like an 2010s Arkansas Dems Collapse happening but to a far far bigger state

Seniors in Florida don’t make up the majority of the nation and in many cases are transplants so that could very well skew the numbers .

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

It would be more accurate to suggest that Jeb Bush played a bigger role in the RFL's growth than DeSantis -- compounded by the fact that, as we saw in 2000 and 2018, Florida Democrats are stupid and don't know how to format ballots properly.

The Democratic Party is also finally starting to move left. That sadly hasn't counteracted the GOP's own extremist elements, but "socialism" is a cuss word to Florida Cubans whether you're referring to Venezuelan socialism or Nordic market socialism.

What confuses me is a chunk of all these new transplants have to be seniors. But OSR recently said seniors are trending left now. I'd appreciate any evidence that this is true, but I am curious how Democrats could be sliding in Florida if they're improving with olds.

Btw there are many similarities between the 1998 TX Dems and 2022 FL Dems but one huge difference and that is the 2022 FL Dems were more or less a party that basically tried all it could to keep the dam from bursting for years but no longer had the ability to do so, and the dam just burst.

On the other hand Texas Democrats as late as 1990 still dominated state elections in Texas and by 1998 they were all but dead in statewide races. It was like an 2010s Arkansas Dems Collapse happening but to a far far bigger state

Seniors in Florida don’t make up the majority of the nation and in many cases are transplants so that could very well skew the numbers .

Okay, so where are these gains being made? They're not in Maine. They're not in Rhode Island.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It would be more accurate to suggest that Jeb Bush played a bigger role in the RFL's growth than DeSantis -- compounded by the fact that, as we saw in 2000 and 2018, Florida Democrats are stupid and don't know how to format ballots properly.

The Democratic Party is also finally starting to move left. That sadly hasn't counteracted the GOP's own extremist elements, but "socialism" is a cuss word to Florida Cubans whether you're referring to Venezuelan socialism or Nordic market socialism.

What confuses me is a chunk of all these new transplants have to be seniors. But OSR recently said seniors are trending left now. I'd appreciate any evidence that this is true, but I am curious how Democrats could be sliding in Florida if they're improving with olds.

Btw there are many similarities between the 1998 TX Dems and 2022 FL Dems but one huge difference and that is the 2022 FL Dems were more or less a party that basically tried all it could to keep the dam from bursting for years but no longer had the ability to do so, and the dam just burst.

On the other hand Texas Democrats as late as 1990 still dominated state elections in Texas and by 1998 they were all but dead in statewide races. It was like an 2010s Arkansas Dems Collapse happening but to a far far bigger state

Seniors in Florida don’t make up the majority of the nation and in many cases are transplants so that could very well skew the numbers .

Okay, so where are these gains being made? They're not in Maine. They're not in Rhode Island.

Arizona is one :

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=AZ

Trump’s margins with seniors is less than Romney’s margins in the state overall and while I can’t find the exits for 2012 AZ , Romney almost certainly did better with AZ seniors than Trump did given these facts


Pennsylvania is another :

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president/exit-polls.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-pennsylvania.html

Romney won seniors by 14 while Trump won it by 6

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

It would be more accurate to suggest that Jeb Bush played a bigger role in the RFL's growth than DeSantis -- compounded by the fact that, as we saw in 2000 and 2018, Florida Democrats are stupid and don't know how to format ballots properly.

The Democratic Party is also finally starting to move left. That sadly hasn't counteracted the GOP's own extremist elements, but "socialism" is a cuss word to Florida Cubans whether you're referring to Venezuelan socialism or Nordic market socialism.

What confuses me is a chunk of all these new transplants have to be seniors. But OSR recently said seniors are trending left now. I'd appreciate any evidence that this is true, but I am curious how Democrats could be sliding in Florida if they're improving with olds.

Btw there are many similarities between the 1998 TX Dems and 2022 FL Dems but one huge difference and that is the 2022 FL Dems were more or less a party that basically tried all it could to keep the dam from bursting for years but no longer had the ability to do so, and the dam just burst.

On the other hand Texas Democrats as late as 1990 still dominated state elections in Texas and by 1998 they were all but dead in statewide races. It was like an 2010s Arkansas Dems Collapse happening but to a far far bigger state

Seniors in Florida don’t make up the majority of the nation and in many cases are transplants so that could very well skew the numbers .

Okay, so where are these gains being made? They're not in Maine. They're not in Rhode Island.

Arizona is one :

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=AZ

Trump’s margins with seniors is less than Romney’s margins in the state overall and while I can’t find the exits for 2012 AZ , Romney almost certainly did better with AZ seniors than Trump did given these facts


Pennsylvania is another :

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president/exit-polls.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-pennsylvania.html

Romney won seniors by 14 while Trump won it by 6

Interesting. I can't help but wonder how much of that figure, in states where Biden gained, is attributed to COVID skepticism.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The tendency away from the Democratic Party was already well underway in Texas with the elections of Governor Bill Clements and Senator John Tower. Conservative Democrats were switching to the GOP.

Same could be said for Florida. Slightly different because it's not a matter of Blue Dogs switching parties, but with both Bush and DeSantis the trends were already in their favor, and they happened to be the right people to really cement the trend.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL isn't gone it's an R 5 state not an R 20 state wave insurance and users net to stop saying we can't win beyond 303 it's a 538 map