Ecuadorian elections (referendum, 21 April 2024)

[MaxQue]

Noboa, huh! Big if true. I saw people anecdotally saying he had a good performance in the debate but besides that he’s been a total non-factor for me. Very interesting to see how the rest of the night plays out, whether or not those polls are accurate.

Is he the same Noboa that lost multiple elections in a row?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Noboa, huh! Big if true. I saw people anecdotally saying he had a good performance in the debate but besides that he’s been a total non-factor for me. Very interesting to see how the rest of the night plays out, whether or not those polls are accurate.

Is he the same Noboa that lost multiple elections in a row?

That was Álvaro, this is his son Daniel. Álvaro briefly declared his candidacy but ended up not running.

[Mike88]

With each new update, so far, Noboa has been closing the gap with González. The question is if the trend will continue.

[Duke of York]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Seems like Villavicenio's replacement is doing pretty well.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Hmm the site isn't working.

[Oryxslayer]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Personally fingers crossed Zurita can pull it off.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Also apparently there was a conspiracy theory that Gonzalez had something to do with the assassination.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Watching interviews with Noboa and he’s exactly as impressive as you’d imagine a guy who’s only ever worked for his dad’s business would be. Polished, though!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So it looks like it's gonna be some combination of Gonzalez-Noboa-Zurita as 1-2-3

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So it looks like it's gonna be some combination of Gonzalez-Noboa-Zurita as 1-2-3

If this first 10% of results is representative, Zurita will be fighting with Topic for third place.

[Mike88]

With each new update, so far, Noboa has been closing the gap with González. The question is if the trend will continue.

Things have stabilized and a González vs Noboa runoff is basically certain. González is polling between 32-33% and Noboa at 24-25%.

[warandwar]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Also apparently there was a conspiracy theory that Gonzalez had something to do with the assassination.

Gotta say, if i had to bet a candidate was behind it, it would be Topic - shady paramilitary guy tied to mafia party who gained in the polls after his assassination?

[Oryxslayer]

With each new update, so far, Noboa has been closing the gap with González. The question is if the trend will continue.

Things have stabilized and a González vs Noboa runoff is basically certain. González is polling between 32-33% and Noboa at 24-25%.

I wouldn't be surprised in Noboa gains a bit before the count ends, the anti-Correa areas seemingly are taking slower than the average Correaista area, though mostly Guayaquil.


Also it looks like Zurita was the favored candidate of Indigenous voters post-assassinations, large overperformances in the interior relative to the national vote.   

[Oryxslayer]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Also apparently there was a conspiracy theory that Gonzalez had something to do with the assassination.

Gotta say, if i had to bet a candidate was behind it, it would be Topic - shady paramilitary guy tied to mafia party who gained in the polls after his assassination?

This is becoming totally insane.

Christian Zurita has just posted this on his Twitter account:

I share something that I cannot disregard: several months ago, my friend Fernando Villavicencio filed a complaint about a possible contract-killing-type attack. The surprise? He signaled assemblymen from the RC5 and PSC as the supposed ones implicated. Let’s share to be vigilant.

According to Zurita, Villavicencio formally requested in last April the Fiscalía to investigate a potential plan to assassinate him by hitmen, a plan he had been informed by unnamed legislators (Zurita says they wanted to remain anonymous, presumably because of fear of retaliation). The complaint of Villavicencio mentioned the names of five legislators who, allegedly, discussed the assassination plan:

- Pablo Muentes (PSC-Guayas)
- Ronny Aleaga (RC-Guayas)
- Roberto Cuero (RC-Guayas)
- Ronal González (RC-Los Ríos)
- Walter Gómez (RC-Guayas)

All but Aleaga and Gómez are seeking reelection.

Everyone of course will have their own "hunch" but this is the formal accusation by Zurita against (mostly) RC.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Also apparently there was a conspiracy theory that Gonzalez had something to do with the assassination.

Gotta say, if i had to bet a candidate was behind it, it would be Topic - shady paramilitary guy tied to mafia party who gained in the polls after his assassination?

This is becoming totally insane.

Christian Zurita has just posted this on his Twitter account:

I share something that I cannot disregard: several months ago, my friend Fernando Villavicencio filed a complaint about a possible contract-killing-type attack. The surprise? He signaled assemblymen from the RC5 and PSC as the supposed ones implicated. Let’s share to be vigilant.

According to Zurita, Villavicencio formally requested in last April the Fiscalía to investigate a potential plan to assassinate him by hitmen, a plan he had been informed by unnamed legislators (Zurita says they wanted to remain anonymous, presumably because of fear of retaliation). The complaint of Villavicencio mentioned the names of five legislators who, allegedly, discussed the assassination plan:

- Pablo Muentes (PSC-Guayas)
- Ronny Aleaga (RC-Guayas)
- Roberto Cuero (RC-Guayas)
- Ronal González (RC-Los Ríos)
- Walter Gómez (RC-Guayas)

All but Aleaga and Gómez are seeking reelection.

Everyone of course will have their own "hunch" but this is the formal accusation by Zurita against (mostly) RC.

RC is González right?

[Peeperkorn]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Also apparently there was a conspiracy theory that Gonzalez had something to do with the assassination.

Gotta say, if i had to bet a candidate was behind it, it would be Topic - shady paramilitary guy tied to mafia party who gained in the polls after his assassination?

This is becoming totally insane.

Christian Zurita has just posted this on his Twitter account:

I share something that I cannot disregard: several months ago, my friend Fernando Villavicencio filed a complaint about a possible contract-killing-type attack. The surprise? He signaled assemblymen from the RC5 and PSC as the supposed ones implicated. Let’s share to be vigilant.

According to Zurita, Villavicencio formally requested in last April the Fiscalía to investigate a potential plan to assassinate him by hitmen, a plan he had been informed by unnamed legislators (Zurita says they wanted to remain anonymous, presumably because of fear of retaliation). The complaint of Villavicencio mentioned the names of five legislators who, allegedly, discussed the assassination plan:

- Pablo Muentes (PSC-Guayas)
- Ronny Aleaga (RC-Guayas)
- Roberto Cuero (RC-Guayas)
- Ronal González (RC-Los Ríos)
- Walter Gómez (RC-Guayas)

All but Aleaga and Gómez are seeking reelection.

Everyone of course will have their own "hunch" but this is the formal accusation by Zurita against (mostly) RC.

RC is González right?

Yes.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Also apparently there was a conspiracy theory that Gonzalez had something to do with the assassination.

Gotta say, if i had to bet a candidate was behind it, it would be Topic - shady paramilitary guy tied to mafia party who gained in the polls after his assassination?

This is becoming totally insane.

Christian Zurita has just posted this on his Twitter account:

I share something that I cannot disregard: several months ago, my friend Fernando Villavicencio filed a complaint about a possible contract-killing-type attack. The surprise? He signaled assemblymen from the RC5 and PSC as the supposed ones implicated. Let’s share to be vigilant.

According to Zurita, Villavicencio formally requested in last April the Fiscalía to investigate a potential plan to assassinate him by hitmen, a plan he had been informed by unnamed legislators (Zurita says they wanted to remain anonymous, presumably because of fear of retaliation). The complaint of Villavicencio mentioned the names of five legislators who, allegedly, discussed the assassination plan:

- Pablo Muentes (PSC-Guayas)
- Ronny Aleaga (RC-Guayas)
- Roberto Cuero (RC-Guayas)
- Ronal González (RC-Los Ríos)
- Walter Gómez (RC-Guayas)

All but Aleaga and Gómez are seeking reelection.

Everyone of course will have their own "hunch" but this is the formal accusation by Zurita against (mostly) RC.

RC is González right?

RC is an umbrella of the entire 'Correaista' political establishment so it's a bit of a stretch to claim Gonzalez is somehow tied to the assassination like you seem to be making, certainly without further proof . She's been ahead in the polls the entire campaign and if anything it actually harmed her chances.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Also apparently there was a conspiracy theory that Gonzalez had something to do with the assassination.

Gotta say, if i had to bet a candidate was behind it, it would be Topic - shady paramilitary guy tied to mafia party who gained in the polls after his assassination?

This is becoming totally insane.

Christian Zurita has just posted this on his Twitter account:

I share something that I cannot disregard: several months ago, my friend Fernando Villavicencio filed a complaint about a possible contract-killing-type attack. The surprise? He signaled assemblymen from the RC5 and PSC as the supposed ones implicated. Let’s share to be vigilant.

According to Zurita, Villavicencio formally requested in last April the Fiscalía to investigate a potential plan to assassinate him by hitmen, a plan he had been informed by unnamed legislators (Zurita says they wanted to remain anonymous, presumably because of fear of retaliation). The complaint of Villavicencio mentioned the names of five legislators who, allegedly, discussed the assassination plan:

- Pablo Muentes (PSC-Guayas)
- Ronny Aleaga (RC-Guayas)
- Roberto Cuero (RC-Guayas)
- Ronal González (RC-Los Ríos)
- Walter Gómez (RC-Guayas)

All but Aleaga and Gómez are seeking reelection.

Everyone of course will have their own "hunch" but this is the formal accusation by Zurita against (mostly) RC.

RC is González right?

RC is an umbrella of the entire 'Correaista' political establishment so it's a bit of a stretch to claim Gonzalez is somehow tied to the assassination like you seem to be making, certainly without further proof . She's been ahead in the polls the entire campaign and if anything it actually harmed her chances.

I'm not suggesting she's tied to the assassination. I'm saying it was a conspiracy theory that might have influenced voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's a very rough map of where things stand in terms of leads. I guess I'll have more and better maps tomorrow when the count is finished, and I'm not tired. Compared to Lasso's round 1, Noboa is doing much better across the central Andean anti-Correa provinces, either winning or in a close second. Him and Zurita's voter appear to be correlated outside of the overwhelmingly indigenous rainforest states. This division among the security-influenced voters is why my prediction of RC finishing second didn't play out.

Noboa was leading in Santa Elena for most of the count, and remains 1% behind Gonzales, I find this particularly interesting cause its been a strong Correaista province in the past.

Gonzales's coalition is unsurprisingly very similar to Arauz's round 1 alliance in 2021, though with a worse results around Guayaquil.

Topic has a shockingly even distribution of voters. He received greater than 13% and less than 17% in all but 6 provinces: 3 just below, 3 just above.

[Sadader]

Noboa winning is pretty surprising, though maybe it shouldn't be given the track record of polling. I know nothing about Noboa apart from his name and that he went to Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. What are his policies?

[Sir John Johns]

Presidential elections results (92.9% in)

Luisa González (RC) 33.3%
Daniel Noboa (ADN: PID+MOVER) 23.7%
Christian Zurita (Construye) 16.5%
Jan Topic (PSC+PSP+CD) 14.7%
Otto Sonnenholzner (Actuemos: SUMA+Avanza) 7.1%
Yaku Pérez (UP+MDS+PSE) 3.9%
Xavier Hervas (RETO) 0.5%
Bolívar Armijos (AMIGO) 0.4%

blank votes: 2.0%
null votes: 6.7%

In spite of the problems with the expats votes, losing candidates have all rapidly conceded defeat.

I will maybe later elaborate on the factors which contributed to this result but this is a significant setback for the RC, which barely improved over its 2021 first round result (32.7%) and expected electing González in the first round by crossing the 40%. This is happening only six months after Correísmo has defeated the government-sponsored mega-referendum and captured 9 out of 23 prefectures as well as the mayoralship of the two most-populated cities (Quito and Guayaquil), hence appearing as the largest political force in the country as well as the only one with a nationwide presence. Additionally, the incumbent president is so much discredited that he gave up running for completing his term in office. Yet, the RC has totally failed to capitalize on its status of major opposition party.

The RC has largely repeated its errors from 2021 and, by most accounts, did a pretty disastrous  campaign. It is now facing an uneasy runoff against a candidate who is certainly in a stronger position than Lasso was in two years ago when the first round results were proclaimed (he had received 19.7% of the vote as the joint candidate of CREO and the PSC).

The general explanations provided to explain Noboa's surprise result are that:

* he attracted young voters (who went in 2021 to Hervas and, to a lesser extent, to Pérez) thanks to a clever use of TikTok and his young age (35)

* he benefited from the environmental referendums with his support for the 'yes' in the Yasuní referendum

* he wisely stayed above the pro/anti-Correa divide and abstained from personal attacks against rivals and, thanks to his increasning support remaining undetected by the polls, he was also largely spared by other candidates. Hence cementing himself as the less polarizing candidate.

* he successfully sold himself as a modern, fresh and competent leader and prove able during the debate to expose his positions in an articulate way

* he exploited the 'philanthropic organizations' of his parents to buy votes and enjoyed the support of his aunt, Isabel Noboa, and her Nobis conglomerate, one of the most powerful economic group in Ecuador

* unlike Sonnenholzner and Topic, he has an experience as a campaigner (yes, sometimes this matters), having been elected an assemblyman for Santa Elena in 2021, and having carefully prepared his presidential bid for a while

In my opinion, Noboa is the favorite to win the runoff but this one will take place on 15 October. So, there are two months remaining enough for a change in the situation but this will require the RC to largely change its political strategy and communication and, considering how the movement’s big boss has very low inclination for self-criticism…

Noboa Jr. defeating Correa’s candidate in the runoff, and that while being the candidate of MOVER, technically the legal successor of Alianza PAIS, would be incredibly ironic.



Legislative elections (only national list results: 15 out of 137 seats at stake) (90.7% in):

RC 39.4%
Construye 20.7%
ADN: MOVER+PID 14.7%
PSC 11.8%
Actuemos: SUMA+Avanza 4.5%
PSP 3.2%
Claro que se puede: UP+MDS+PSE 2.9%
RETO: 1.7%
AMIGO: 1.2%

blank votes: 9.4%
null votes: 13.0%

The large share of spoiled votes is an indication of the unpopularity of political organizations and the distrust towards the parliamentary work; like the 2017-21 legislature, the 2021-23 one is concluding with single-digit approvals, being even more unpopular than Lasso.

According to incomplete projections including the provincial seats, the RC is keeping by far the largest parliamentary representation with 50 seats (a few more than in 2021), but far from the absolute majority.

The second largest caucus would be Construye with 28 seats (but it is already facing divisions as Villavicencio’s unregistered party, Gente Buena, has just announced it is terminating its alliance with María Paula Romo’s party).

The PSC would have 14 seats, down from 18 in 2021, and has lost its parliamentary leader, the insufferable Esteban Torres, who scored a clear defeat in Tungurahua with 9.4% of the votes.

Noboa’s alliance would have only 12 seats and Sonnenholzner’s coalition 7. Pachakutik would have 5 seats and Pérez’s alliance only 3, far away from the 23 seats won by the indigenous movement in 2021. The ID (18 seats in 2021) is totally wipe out having apparently not win a single seat while CREO (12 seats in 2021) is obviously unrepresented, not having run candidates.

The incumbent president of the National Assembly, Vírgilio Saquicela, running this time for the PSE, is defeated in Cañar.

So any legislative majority would requires an alliance between at least three political forces and there is a great probability that the next parliament will be as much an unruly mess than the outgoing one. Defections have to be expected even before the inauguration of the next legislature.


Yasuní referendum (93.0% in)

Yes 59.0%
No 41.0%

blank 7.6%; null 5.3%



Chocó Andino local referendum (93.0% in)

Yes is winning in the four questions with between 68.0% and 68.5%.

[Peeperkorn]

Thanks for your posts "Sir John Johns". Way better than anything that could be found in the Ecuadorian press.

[Oryxslayer]

let's start with the Yasuni referendum, because it does influence the later results. I would describe the results, which presently stand at 59% Yes to 41% No, as a widespread cross-partisan issue. The Anti-Correa Andean province's voters were the strongest supporters, but the Correaista coastal regions were not far behind. The one exception, as clearly obvious, is the two Northeastern Oil-Producing regions of Sucumbios and Orellana.



This opposition either drove turnout or significantly effected voter opinions in said region in favor of RC. The Correaistas have had success in the region previously - Sucumbios is part of their normal coalition  - but is not traditionally among the provinces with the fiercest supporters. Yaku Perez carried them both in the first round of 2021 when he swept the interior.

I wish to draw attention to that result because it highlights the changes underneath the surface between Arauz's and Gonzalez's coalitions. Both were very similar overall, but Arauz's coalition was much more polarized. Gonzalez improved basically everywhere, but especially in the northeast. She however had a weaker result in the greater Guayaquil region. This loss of voters more or less canceled out the voter gains everywhere else.

Compared to the initial provincial winners map I posted above, the final count flipped two states in favor of Gonzalez: Azuay in the south from Noboa and Morona Santiago in the interior from Zurita. But first place doesn't exactly matter in a multi-ticket round-one, what matters in the distribution of voter support.



Noboa's best results were in the Anti-Correa favoring Andean provinces. In contrast to Lasso though his coalition was much less concentrated in urban areas. He also got a strong home-province boost from Santa Elena, a usually strong-Correaista coastal province.



Villavicencio's Zurita's coalition by contrast is the most polarized. One suspects the accusations against RC must have played an impact in the Correaista strongholds, where he relieved limited support. He was the favored candidate of Indigenous groups, but obviously not to the extent of Yaku Perez previously. His support among voters in the Andean provinces roughly correlates with Noboa, suggesting that they both pulled from the same voter pool in said provinces.



As I noted earlier, there is no point to to mapping Topic's coalition, because there was zero voter concentration. His voter share was almost perfectly evenly distributed, unusual for a ticket that wins >10% of the vote in any election anywhere.