Why don't older conservative retires move to AZ like they move to FL?

[Cyrusman]

Why doesn't AZ have a bunch of conservative older retirees moving there similar to how Florida does, which has kept Florida pinkish/now red? You would think due to the weather it would follow a similar trend out west.

[It’s so Joever]

They do. Arizona is a largely urban state, it’s the fact the suburbs are still very conservative that keeps it close.

[Tintrlvr]

They do. Arizona is a largely urban state, it’s the fact the suburbs are still very conservative that keeps it close.

I think the trend of retirees moving to Arizona has weakened somewhat recently. Definitely Arizona was getting as many retirees as Florida (at least proportionate to their respective populations) in the '00s, but I have the impression that new retirement communities aren't really being built as much in Arizona nowadays (there's no super-high-growth retirement area like The Villages in Arizona, for example), in part due to water constraints making massive sprawling new development more difficult, and Arizona's population growth is much more people relocating from Southern California for a similar environment but cheaper housing. The existing retirement communities (e.g., Sun City) are only treading water in population - which certainly means some retirees are moving there since of course in any retirement community you're looking at near-total population turnover in a 30-year span, but not nearly so many as Florida, even taking into account Arizona's smaller population.

I think another part of the problem for Arizona as a retirement destination is that while it might be a nice place to retire due to the warm weather, it isn't really a nice place to vacation except for a one-time trip to the national parks, etc., and people are choosing Florida for retirement in part because they visited it many times during their lives before retirement.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think another part of the problem for Arizona as a retirement destination is that while it might be a nice place to retire due to the warm weather, it isn't really a nice place to vacation except for a one-time trip to the national parks, etc., and people are choosing Florida for retirement in part because they visited it many times during their lives before retirement.

In addition to having one of the most famous tourist destinations in the country, Arizona attracts a wide variety of tourist traffic for other reasons, many of which are the same as Florida: baseball spring training, golfing, the existence of a major city, and so on. Anecdotally, I have a friend in Minnesota whose parents visit Phoenix every year. I can believe that Arizona gets less tourist traffic from the East Coast, but it tremendous volume from the Midwest, as you can see from the abundance of Allegiant flights from the Midwest to Mesa or the wide variety of Midwestern chain restaurants available in the Phoenix area.

It's surprisingly hard to find tourism data by state, but here's a YouGov report on states by the percentage of Americans who have been to them: Florida is first among all states, but Arizona is one of the highest among states outside the eastern seaboard. An infographic posted on Business Insider in 2014 lists Florida as second and Arizona as eighth in the country in terms of total hotel bookings, which would suggest that both are states that attract heavy tourist traffic. If your definition of "a nice place to vacation" is having Disneyland, then yes, Arizona doesn't have that, but it certainly attracts an enormous number of visitors in spite of that.

[Hope For A New Era]

I don't care. Don't jinx it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

They do. Arizona is a largely urban state, it’s the fact the suburbs are still very conservative that keeps it close.

Arizona is still redder than one would demographically "expect" just based on race, educational attainment and urban/rural breakdown. And there are a few outer suburbs that haven't shifted all that much to the left such as the San Tan Valley.

It's just there are other suburbs that are culturally very different.

[Frodo]

There are other states apart from Arizona and Florida that haven't received as much attention from retirees that might gain more notice as the appeal of these two states start to wear thin:

Best and Worst States for Retirement in 2023

My native state of Virginia seems to be ranked among the top ten, apparently. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is a Mexican state and FL is a Central America state big difference

Mexicans want open borders and Central America want an arms embargo on Castro regime in Cuba

[sting in the rafters]

Anecdotally some Northeastern suburbanites such as my old man prefer Arizona (and really the Southwest in general) to Florida because it doesn’t suffer the same damn humidity nor homeowner’s insurance costs due to hurricanes.

[Oryxslayer]

They do. Arizona is a largely urban state, it’s the fact the suburbs are still very conservative that keeps it close.

I think the trend of retirees moving to Arizona has weakened somewhat recently. Definitely Arizona was getting as many retirees as Florida (at least proportionate to their respective populations) in the '00s, but I have the impression that new retirement communities aren't really being built as much in Arizona nowadays (there's no super-high-growth retirement area like The Villages in Arizona, for example), in part due to water constraints making massive sprawling new development more difficult, and Arizona's population growth is much more people relocating from Southern California for a similar environment but cheaper housing. The existing retirement communities (e.g., Sun City) are only treading water in population - which certainly means some retirees are moving there since of course in any retirement community you're looking at near-total population turnover in a 30-year span, but not nearly so many as Florida, even taking into account Arizona's smaller population.

An underdiscussed part of this is that Arizona, by nature of proximity, draws a greater percentage of it's retirees from the pacific coast states then Florida. And the average White voter in the West is less likely to be a Republican than in the East and especially the South.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Counter-argument: Sun City, AZ