Could Trump have won Virginia hypothetically in 2016?

[jamestroll]

I say yes, but difficult.

Major deficit in Northern VA compared to Romney would have doomed Trump in MOST situations.

BUT

1) While home state candidates do not have much of an impact nowadays, Kaine clearly helped Clinton here. But this was a relatively minor factor, but not ZERO factor. I remember people saying Kaine being born in Kansas City would help him in Missouri lol.

2) Hoover over predominantly WHITE rural counties in Virginia in 2016. Then hoover over predominantly WHITE counties in places like Missouri, Indiana, Iowa, etc. There were definitely gettable votes for Trump there.

3) at the time, in most cases, a Democrat could not win Virginia Beach and had virtually no chance in Chesterfield County. But the close finishes there were a sign of things to to come.

Trump pulled out of Virginia fairly late in the game. Right after pussygate conveniently.

The raw percentages for Clinton 2016 and McAuliffe 2021, but living there in 2021.. my impression is that Trumpkin won virtually every single voter in Nova he was able to persuade. Can not really see those numbers in percentage terms dropping down for 2024.

In hindsight, Trump pulling out of VA was very smart move. He would have likely lost it by like 1% anyway and it allowed him resources in other states (PA, FL, WI, MI).

But I absolutely do believe he could have won VA in 2016, but may have cost him nationally.

[Mr. Smith]

A Youngkin style campaign, and Hillary picks Warren instead of Kaine...maybe.