Rosendale vs Zinke

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Both seem to have some flaws, but who would be better suited to defeat Tester?

[Sir Mohamed]

Zinke, I suppose?

Rosendale comes off as too ideological extreme and lost before.

[MT Treasurer]

Never underestimate Ryan Zinke's talent for weathering a problematic past with his time-tested combination of a carefully crafted persona that reinvents itself with each talk show host/audience it meets, a healthy dose of superficial/slick Navy SEAL charm, and the reddest of red meat.

I prefer Rosendale as a legislator/man, but more principled candidates don’t necessarily (and arguably rarely) make better candidates. I’d trust Zinke to navigate a competitive statewide election sooner than I’d trust Rosendale.

Obviously Gianforte would be preferable to either, but I do think Democrats on this board (and elsewhere) overstate how "easy" an opponent Zinke in particular would be.

[Pollster]

Obviously the Presidential race will greatly reduce ticket splitting, but given that Rosendale lost this race in 2018 when turnout was higher than 2016, it's a very striking red flag for his chances.

[The Arizonan]

Ryan Zinke is much better at being a slick and would therefore be the better choice.

I’d love to see Maryland Matt run just so that he can lose badly and his seat goes to a Democrat. Same thing for Greg the Bodyslammer.

[MargieCat]

Zinke seems like a generic Republican.

I think if elected, he would listen to McConnell or whoever the leader is, and be a typical establishment GOP senator. Not much different from Steve Daines.

Rosendale would be a thorn in the side of leadership. For that reason, dark money will flood the race to make sure he is not the nominee.

Zinke is more likely to defeat Tester, than Rosendale is.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Ryan Zinke came incrediblly close to loosing in 2022 despite the dems having given up on his seat.

[TML]

Obviously the Presidential race will greatly reduce ticket splitting, but given that Rosendale lost this race in 2018 when turnout was higher than 2016, it's a very striking red flag for his chances.

Actually, 2018 turnout was lower than 2016:

Year	Total Votes Cast	Total Registered Voters	Turnout Percentage
2016	516901	694370	74.44%
2018	509213	711844	71.53%

Of course, turnout alone can't fully explain election results; Rosendale won in 2016 against a non-incumbent Democratic opponent but lost in 2018 against an incumbent Democratic opponent running for re-election before winning in 2020 against another non-incumbent Democratic opponent. (As I mentioned elsewhere, since 2014 the only Democrats who won statewide elections in MT were those who were running for reelection to their existing offices, and that applied to Bullock in 2016 and Tester in 2018; all other Democratic statewide candidates were running for positions they hadn't yet occupied and were all defeated by their respective Republican opponents.)

[JMT]

Ryan Zinke came incrediblly close to loosing in 2022 despite the dems having given up on his seat.

Yeah I actually think Rosendale would be the stronger candidate, for this reason. Zinke just has so much baggage, and he barely won both his primary and general election in 2022 as a result.

Sure, Rosendale lost this seat in 2018, but I think 2024 will be much more favorable to the GOP, and in a presidential year I think Rosendale will have a better shot given how red Montana is. And Rosendale is a thorn in GOP leadership’s side, but I’m not so sure that will be a liability in a conservative state.

That said, I think Rosendale and Zinke are both flawed candidates and the GOP would probably be better served if neither of them ran/were the nominee. The question is, who would run instead? The only other name I’ve heard thrown around is Greg Gianforte, but I imagine he runs for re-election as Governor instead.

[Pollster]

Obviously the Presidential race will greatly reduce ticket splitting, but given that Rosendale lost this race in 2018 when turnout was higher than 2016, it's a very striking red flag for his chances.

Actually, 2018 turnout was lower than 2016:

Year	Total Votes Cast	Total Registered Voters	Turnout Percentage
2016	516901	694370	74.44%
2018	509213	711844	71.53%

Of course, turnout alone can't fully explain election results; Rosendale won in 2016 against a non-incumbent Democratic opponent but lost in 2018 against an incumbent Democratic opponent running for re-election before winning in 2020 against another non-incumbent Democratic opponent. (As I mentioned elsewhere, since 2014 the only Democrats who won statewide elections in MT were those who were running for reelection to their existing offices, and that applied to Bullock in 2016 and Tester in 2018; all other Democratic statewide candidates were running for positions they hadn't yet occupied and were all defeated by their respective Republican opponents.)

I was referring to the differential between 2016 Pres and 2018 Sen directly - roughly 7,000 more votes were cast in the latter race than the former. This is incredibly rare and not likely to be replicated, especially with both the Presidential and Senate race on the same ballot. Rosendale looks even weaker when you see that the same dynamic happened in the concurrent 2018 House race yet Gianforte still managed to win.

Entirely possible given the turnout figures you cite that this was due to an abnormally large number of voters blanking the Presidential race in 2016 (this looks likely given that the House race in 2016 saw more votes cast than the Presidential). This is another dynamic not likely to be replicated and if it is somehow, Tester will need the lion's share of Presidential nonvoters.

[Niemeyerite]

A bit off topic, but I just found out that independent Gary Buchanan got more votes than the Democratic party candidate against Rosendale last year. Can you tell us exactly how he managed to do it and if he's got any future in MT politics, MT Treasurer? Thanks!

[kwabbit]

This seat would be easily winnable for the generic R but the MT GOP seems to have a penchant for only having below average candidates. Only Steve Daines doesn’t have a lot of baggage. I don’t know who would be better between Zinke or Rosendale, but neither inspire confidence. Rosendale already lost to Tester and was part of the speakership election charade, but the Zinke did poorly in both the primary and the general in 2022. Gianforte would win though.