Is Virginia still worth trying in for the GOP or is it a lost cause?
Ragnaroni:
We can all agree Colorado is gone for good, Nevada is a perpetual swing state these days, New Mexico seems irrelevant (and unwinnable too) and Arizona is a battleground state but what about Virginia? It voted 54% for Biden a 10 point margin but I feel it's still winnable for the Republicans somehow.
I forgot to mention Youngkin's 2 point margin of victory which was a 14 point swing IIRC.
Dicuss
Skill and Chance:
Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election. Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible.
Ragnaroni:
Quote from: Skill and Chance on January 25, 2023, 08:57:57 AM
Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election. Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible.
Do you assume that there will be some improvement or worsening statewide for the GOP in a non-Trump election? I lean towards the former.
Skill and Chance:
Quote from: Ragnaroni on January 25, 2023, 09:28:44 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on January 25, 2023, 08:57:57 AM
Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election. Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible.
Do you assume that there will be some improvement or worsening statewide for the GOP in a non-Trump election? I lean towards the former.
Almost surely improvement, probably but not certainly not enough to do anything statewide. The anti-Trump conservatives are very concentrated in VA-10. It went from Romney +1 to Clinton +10 to Biden +20 to McAuliffe +5 in 2021 to Dem +6.5 for Congress in 2022. The last result suggests it's more likely 2020 was a one-time thing there than 2021. However, the Richmond suburbs are more monotonically moving left which cancels this out somewhat.
Ragnaroni:
Quote from: Skill and Chance on January 25, 2023, 09:45:19 AM
Quote from: Ragnaroni on January 25, 2023, 09:28:44 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on January 25, 2023, 08:57:57 AM
Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election. Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible.
Do you assume that there will be some improvement or worsening statewide for the GOP in a non-Trump election? I lean towards the former.
Almost surely improvement, probably but not certainly not enough to do anything statewide. The anti-Trump conservatives are very concentrated in VA-10. It went from Romney +1 to Clinton +10 to Biden +20 to McAuliffe +5 in 2021 to Dem +6.5 for Congress in 2022. The last result suggests it's more likely 2020 was a one-time thing there than 2021. However, the Richmond suburbs are more monotonically moving left which cancels this out somewhat.
I see, so not running Trump in 2024 would be a wise move in some way. I know there are many states that have the same situation as the anti-Trump GOP guys in VA.
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