Why did Bob Dole win Colorado in 1996?
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  Why did Bob Dole win Colorado in 1996?
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Author Topic: Why did Bob Dole win Colorado in 1996?  (Read 1165 times)
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LeonelBrizola
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« on: January 24, 2023, 06:21:41 PM »

Being from neighboring Kansas?
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TML
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« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2023, 08:00:06 PM »

Perot's vote share decreased from 1992 to 1996. Compared to 1992, Dole increased Republican margins in the Denver suburbs, as well as in the Colorado Springs area and won back Larimer County.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2023, 01:18:12 AM »

The Western wing of the GOP was stronger then.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2023, 10:26:13 PM »

Colorado was an R state from 1952-2008...with only LBJ's 1964 as the exception.

1992 is the outlier here.
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« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2023, 05:51:37 AM »

Perot's vote share decreased from 1992 to 1996. Compared to 1992, Dole increased Republican margins in the Denver suburbs, as well as in the Colorado Springs area and won back Larimer County.

A similar thing happened in Georgia and Montana, but even accounting for Perot's smaller vote share, Clinton should've held all those states and added Virginia or North Carolina to his column. Clinton's underperformance is the most memorable thing about an otherwise forgotten election.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2023, 07:08:38 AM »

Perot's vote share decreased from 1992 to 1996. Compared to 1992, Dole increased Republican margins in the Denver suburbs, as well as in the Colorado Springs area and won back Larimer County.

A similar thing happened in Georgia and Montana, but even accounting for Perot's smaller vote share, Clinton should've held all those states and added Virginia or North Carolina to his column. Clinton's underperformance is the most memorable thing about an otherwise forgotten election.

I think he probably only lost North Carolina due to his anti-tobacco stance. It was a bigger issue back then.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2023, 08:00:06 AM »

Perot and low Democratic turnout. The majority of Perot 1996 voters went to Bush but that doesn't mean they wouldn't have voted for Clinton in 1996. I also disagree with the narrative that Clinton would have lost CO in 1992 without Perot. Bush Sr. underperformed heavily in 1988 (Dukakis's 45% was the highest received by a Dem in CO since 1964) and Clinton was the type of moderate Dem that CO liked (Gary Hart was also a neoliberal).

I suppose people look at Dole's 1996 win and Bush's high single digit 2000 victory over Gore and assume that CO was a likely R state in the 1990s, but all of the mountain west swung heavily towards Bush in 2000, it was simply stronger in CO because Nader cut deeply into Gore's support in Denver and Boulder.
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« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2023, 12:41:44 PM »

Colorado was a different state in the 90s, it's reputation was more that of an evangelical stronghold. It still has a lot of evangelicals but they're out voted. Back then they weren't, liberal transplants were coming but they hadn't hit criticality yet.

Also in addition to tourism metro Denver's economy was mostly based on things like insurance, banking and defense contractors at the time. The tech industry that has a strong foothold in Denver now didn't really exist there at the time. Denver was still a pretty "hip" city even at the time, but the suburbs were quite conservative.

And as noted Colorado had a very Republican voting record at the time. The exceptions were the 1964 landslide and 1992 when Perot probably changed things there.
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