Opinion of this New York State Senate D gerrymander I drew?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I got it down to just 12 R seats. Admittedly some of the D seats (like those one between downstate and Albany that run up in strips) would still be winnable for Republicans and might've voted for Zeldin, but thoughts?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, I think in a state like NY, a successful gerrymander would lock in a supermajority with a 2-3 seat buffer and a lot of other winnable seats rather than just confining Rs to as few seats as possible at the expense of security.

[Hope For A New Era]

Honestly, I think in a state like NY, a successful gerrymander would lock in a supermajority with a 2-3 seat buffer and a lot of other winnable seats rather than just confining Rs to as few seats as possible at the expense of security.

This. Missouri Republicans could have easily locked themselves into a supermajority in the state senate for the decade, but in the map they drew the supermajority is breakable.

[Mr.Phips]

Honestly, I think in a state like NY, a successful gerrymander would lock in a supermajority with a 2-3 seat buffer and a lot of other winnable seats rather than just confining Rs to as few seats as possible at the expense of security.

This. Missouri Republicans could have easily locked themselves into a supermajority in the state senate for the decade, but in the map they drew the supermajority is breakable.

The state legislature is drawn by a bipartisan commission in Missouri.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Honestly, I think in a state like NY, a successful gerrymander would lock in a supermajority with a 2-3 seat buffer and a lot of other winnable seats rather than just confining Rs to as few seats as possible at the expense of security.

Kind of like Illinois...

[lfromnj]

Honestly, I think in a state like NY, a successful gerrymander would lock in a supermajority with a 2-3 seat buffer and a lot of other winnable seats rather than just confining Rs to as few seats as possible at the expense of security.

This. Missouri Republicans could have easily locked themselves into a supermajority in the state senate for the decade, but in the map they drew the supermajority is breakable.

The state legislature is drawn by a bipartisan commission in Missouri.

Yeah the Missouri legislative maps are also some of the best in the entire nation.

[Tintrlvr]

Honestly, I think in a state like NY, a successful gerrymander would lock in a supermajority with a 2-3 seat buffer and a lot of other winnable seats rather than just confining Rs to as few seats as possible at the expense of security.

Agreed. Some of those Upstate seats in particular are a lot less secure than pure Presidential figures would suggest; the Republicans were routinely winning D+10 State Senate seats Upstate on the old Republican gerrymander maps. On this map, the Democrats could end up with no representation at all in Rochester or Syracuse, e.g.

[Skill and Chance]

Honestly, I think in a state like NY, a successful gerrymander would lock in a supermajority with a 2-3 seat buffer and a lot of other winnable seats rather than just confining Rs to as few seats as possible at the expense of security.

This. Missouri Republicans could have easily locked themselves into a supermajority in the state senate for the decade, but in the map they drew the supermajority is breakable.

The state legislature is drawn by a bipartisan commission in Missouri.

Yeah the Missouri legislative maps are also some of the best in the entire nation.

Oh, that part stuck?  I thought the legislature took back more control with the 2020 amendment they proposed.

[lfromnj]

Honestly, I think in a state like NY, a successful gerrymander would lock in a supermajority with a 2-3 seat buffer and a lot of other winnable seats rather than just confining Rs to as few seats as possible at the expense of security.

This. Missouri Republicans could have easily locked themselves into a supermajority in the state senate for the decade, but in the map they drew the supermajority is breakable.

The state legislature is drawn by a bipartisan commission in Missouri.

Yeah the Missouri legislative maps are also some of the best in the entire nation.

Oh, that part stuck?  I thought the legislature took back more control with the 2020 amendment they proposed.

No the 2020 amendment was just stopping the "non partisan" groups" from gerrymandering  the maps by bacon stripping St.Louis. it mostly just reverted back to the old system.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, I think in a state like NY, a successful gerrymander would lock in a supermajority with a 2-3 seat buffer and a lot of other winnable seats rather than just confining Rs to as few seats as possible at the expense of security.

Agreed. Some of those Upstate seats in particular are a lot less secure than pure Presidential figures would suggest; the Republicans were routinely winning D+10 State Senate seats Upstate on the old Republican gerrymander maps. On this map, the Democrats could end up with no representation at all in Rochester or Syracuse, e.g.

It seems like basically all that insane crossover support eroded between in 2018 and 2020, and in 2022, legistlative Ds generally held their ground ok in upstate NY as a whole. It appears they won 3 Zeldin seats (SD-41, SD-42, and SD-50). SD-41 was actually a Trump 2020 seat as well.

I think those insane R overperformances are a thing of the past, similar to how Ds have eroded at the legislative level in rural WV and KY.

[Torie]

The map linked in the OP has no nexus with legality, and thus is a Fail.

[Mr.Phips]

Honestly, I think in a state like NY, a successful gerrymander would lock in a supermajority with a 2-3 seat buffer and a lot of other winnable seats rather than just confining Rs to as few seats as possible at the expense of security.

Agreed. Some of those Upstate seats in particular are a lot less secure than pure Presidential figures would suggest; the Republicans were routinely winning D+10 State Senate seats Upstate on the old Republican gerrymander maps. On this map, the Democrats could end up with no representation at all in Rochester or Syracuse, e.g.

It seems like basically all that insane crossover support eroded between in 2018 and 2020, and in 2022, legistlative Ds generally held their ground ok in upstate NY as a whole. It appears they won 3 Zeldin seats (SD-41, SD-42, and SD-50). SD-41 was actually a Trump 2020 seat as well.

I think those insane R overperformances are a thing of the past, similar to how Ds have eroded at the legislative level in rural WV and KY.

There was still a pretty big R over performance in the Poughkeepsie and Saratoga/Schenectady seats.  Of course also the two double digit Biden seats on Western Long Island that Dems lost.  The Northern one (Kaplan) was especially surprising as I thought Kaplan had built a pretty strong personal brand for herself there.  She might have actually underperformed Hochul somehow there.