How big of a margin will Jim Justice defeat Manchin by if he runs?

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/jimjusticewv/status/1613685617262575616

[SnowLabrador]

Probably 15-20.

[President Johnson]

As of now, I'd say 13 or 14 points. Something like 56-42% seems a plausible result to me.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

30-35

[Progressive Pessimist]

Manchin will get Jonesed. Probably loses by about 20 points.

[THG]

Eh, something like 15-20 points.

[Sir Mohamed]

Close to 20 pts, if I had to guess.

Early prediction: 58-39%. So a 10 pt. defeat.

[Xing]

Yeah, I’d say Manchin probably gets Blanched.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LoL it's not Jan 24

[Minnesota Mike]

Having 10 options and having none where Manchin wins is ridiculous. Manchin may be an underdog, maybe even a sizeable underdog, but giving him zero chance is just trolling.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hopefully he Blanches him.

[Babeuf]

I think he can hold it to around a 10% margin, which would be a respectable effort.

[S019]

20-25

[Woody]

Having 10 options and having none where Manchin wins is ridiculous. Manchin may be an underdog, maybe even a sizeable underdog, but giving him zero chance is just trolling.

It's not trolling, he is going to lose.

[coloradocowboi]

Having 10 options and having none where Manchin wins is ridiculous. Manchin may be an underdog, maybe even a sizeable underdog, but giving him zero chance is just trolling.

It's not trolling, he is going to lose.

This might be a fair point if it was about Mooney or Morrissey, but Manchin literally cannot win if the nominee is Justice.

[Minnesota Mike]

Having 10 options and having none where Manchin wins is ridiculous. Manchin may be an underdog, maybe even a sizeable underdog, but giving him zero chance is just trolling.

It's not trolling, he is going to lose.

Looking at your political prognostication record forgive me if I don't take your statements as a given. If Manchin runs again he likely loses but to completely ignore the possibility of him winning is pure trolling especially considering he has won statewide in WV 6 times (SOS, Gov (2), Sen (3)).

[Mr. Smith]

Having 10 options and having none where Manchin wins is ridiculous. Manchin may be an underdog, maybe even a sizeable underdog, but giving him zero chance is just trolling.

It's not trolling, he is going to lose.

Looking at your political prognostication record forgive me if I don't take your statements as a given. If Manchin runs again he likely loses but to completely ignore the possibility of him winning is pure trolling especially considering he has won statewide in WV 6 times (SOS, Gov (2), Sen (3)).

Firstly, he won twice as AG too, so that's 8.

Second, John Perdue won even more times as Treasurer...he lost.

Rockefeller retired in 2014 because he knew he was a goner anyway, but he had a longer record.

So yeah, ignoring the possibility of a win is forgivable here, even considering who.

[Schiff for Senate]

Manchin will get Jonesed. Probably loses by about 20 points.

This, actually. I think most people are underestimating Justice's margin of victory (and there's such a low and continually falling floor for Democrats, including/especially longtime Blue Dogs, that I feel like it could even be between 25 and 30 points in the end). Reminder that Justice is also a genuinely decent candidate - not a subpar loser like, say, Alex Mooney.

For the time being, I vote 20-25%. It’s the best bet, but ultimately, it could really be anywhere between 15 and 30 points as far as I can guess.

[BenjiG98]

For some reason I selected 10-15%. It'll be over 20%.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Having 10 options and having none where Manchin wins is ridiculous. Manchin may be an underdog, maybe even a sizeable underdog, but giving him zero chance is just trolling.

It's not trolling, he is going to lose.

Looking at your political prognostication record forgive me if I don't take your statements as a given. If Manchin runs again he likely loses but to completely ignore the possibility of him winning is pure trolling especially considering he has won statewide in WV 6 times (SOS, Gov (2), Sen (3)).

Manchin may only have a <1% chance of beating Justice, but it's still theoretically possible, and thus should be included. For instance, Manchin is probably more likely to win than he is to lose by 50. I personally think he'd lose by around 15, but if Justice runs, there's a good chance Manchin would just call it a day and retire: he's 75 after all, and he might think it best for his legacy to leave of his own accord rather than to lose in a landslide.

[UncleSam]

Ya Manchin has a better chance than most here would like to meme about. Idk when it became fashionable to hyperbolize <5% chances as 0% and then criticize anyone who stated that <5% things do in fact happen sometimes, often as much as once a cycle.

I think he loses by 10-15 in the end if it’s Justice. He might beat the others, or at least come close. He could even beat Justice if it’s a good environment for Ds.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Manchin will get Jonesed. Probably loses by about 20 points.

Manchin has at least tried in someways to appear as a conservative Dem. He has succesfully avoided being cast as a generic Dem, but I'm not sure if thats enough for WV. Doug Jones didn't have much of a chance but had he even attempted to be moderate he could have gotten it to within 15% especially considering his opponent was an Auburn coach (not even Crimson Tide). Instead he voted like a generic liberal and was voted away as one.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Manchin will get Jonesed. Probably loses by about 20 points.

Manchin has at least tried in someways to appear as a conservative Dem. He has succesfully avoided being cast as a generic Dem, but I'm not sure if thats enough for WV. Doug Jones didn't have much of a chance but had he even attempted to be moderate he could have gotten it to within 15% especially considering his opponent was an Auburn coach (not even Crimson Tide). Instead he voted like a generic liberal and was voted away as one.

To be fair, I am glad Jones voted the way he did in the Senate. Him voting more conservative would not have helped him and he still would have lost similarly. Manchin meanwhile is the opposite and his more conservative voting record will not benefit him in any way, so he compromised the Democratic agenda for the past three years for nothing unlike Jones.

[Alben Barkley]

-1.5%, he loses.

Also, ITT: "Lol candidate quality is irrelevant, partisanship is all that matters anymore in a state like WV! Btw Jim Justice would be unbeatable thanks to his candidate quality, but Manchin might actually win or at least do orders of magnitude better against the other candidates!"

[Gracile]

Agree with the 15-20% consensus, which would still be a pretty good showing for Manchin all things considered.