Rate a DeSantis vs Trump Primary given these results from the early 4(IA, NH , SC, NV)
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  Rate a DeSantis vs Trump Primary given these results from the early 4(IA, NH , SC, NV)
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Author Topic: Rate a DeSantis vs Trump Primary given these results from the early 4(IA, NH , SC, NV)  (Read 265 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: January 24, 2023, 11:32:02 AM »
« edited: January 24, 2023, 03:35:11 PM by Old School Republican »

Trump Sweeps the Early 4: Safe Trump
Trump wins 3 of 4 : Likely Trump
Trump wins 2 and DeSantis wins 2 : Tilt Trump(Primary is going till June here)
DeSantis wins 3 of 3 : Likely DeSantis
DeSantis Sweeps the early 4: Likely DeSantis , closer to Safe than Lean
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OriAr
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« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2023, 11:36:26 AM »

Trump sweeps all 4 - Safe Trump, and it'll be likely a 50 state sweep.
Trump wins 3 out of 4 - Very likely Trump
Trump and DeSantis win 2 each - toss up, and it'll go until June
DeSantis wins 3 out of 4 - Likely DeSantis if Trump wins Nevada, if Ron does then very likely DeSantis.
DeSantis wins all 4 - Safe DeSantis, and again, we are likely looking at a 50 state sweep here.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2023, 03:27:41 PM »

I think people are undertesting the effect of Trump losing a state and how that will effect the campaign.

Trump sweeps all 4 - Safe Trump
Trump wins 3 out of 4 -  Likely Trump
Trump and DeSantis win 2 each - Lean DeSantis but it will last till at least May- I think consolidation favors DeSantis over Trump here. Best case for Trump would be he wins SC and NV that would make it tossup.
DeSantis wins 3 out of 4 - Very Likely DeSantis.
DeSantis wins all 4 - Safe DeSantis
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2023, 10:21:34 PM »

Which of these four states are won is arguably more important than the overall number.

For example, Trump winning SC/NV and losing IA/NH is not equivalent to the inverse, where Trump is winning IA/NG but losing SC/NV.

Winning IA and NH are initially important due to the momentum and narrative that will follow, but in terms of demographics and general election implications, regardless of which candidate we're talking about, I'd rather be winning SC and NV than winning IA and NH. And DeSantis arguably needs them more, so Trump winning SC and NV is a much bigger deal.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2023, 12:16:34 AM »

Trump sweeps all 4 - Safe Trump
Trump wins 3 out of 4 - Safe Trump
Trump and DeSantis win 2 each - Lean Trump
DeSantis wins 3 out of 4 - Tilt Trump
DeSantis wins all 4 - Likely DeSantis
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2023, 02:24:25 AM »

ELECTION PREDICTION OFFICIAL Official Trump vs DeSantis Republican Primary

Watch here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaNUkcUs9js

This is basicially my Prediction as well exept that I would give Iowa to DeSantis, New York to Trump and Wisconsin to DeSantis.

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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2023, 04:09:07 AM »

Trump sweeps all 4 - Safe Trump
Trump wins 3 out of 4 - Safe Trump
Trump and DeSantis win 2 each - Lean Trump
DeSantis wins 3 out of 4 - Tilt Trump
DeSantis wins all 4 - Likely DeSantis

Do you know the FBI still has a yr to indict Trump the FBI investigation into Biden and Trump are inderway he may not run
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OriAr
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2023, 04:56:33 AM »

Trump sweeps all 4 - Safe Trump
Trump wins 3 out of 4 - Safe Trump
Trump and DeSantis win 2 each - Lean Trump
DeSantis wins 3 out of 4 - Tilt Trump
DeSantis wins all 4 - Likely DeSantis
If DeSantis wins 3 out of 4 he's undeniably the favorite, and if he wins all 4 he probably sweeps all 50 states probably.
The bandwagon effect is huge during presidential primaries, people like voting for a winner.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2023, 10:32:13 AM »

Trump sweeps all 4 - Safe Trump
Trump wins 3 out of 4 - Safe Trump
Trump and DeSantis win 2 each - Lean Trump
DeSantis wins 3 out of 4 - Tilt Trump
DeSantis wins all 4 - Likely DeSantis
If DeSantis wins 3 out of 4 he's undeniably the favorite, and if he wins all 4 he probably sweeps all 50 states probably.
The bandwagon effect is huge during presidential primaries, people like voting for a winner.
If Trump were to only win 1/4 it would be Nevada which comes last for Republicans I believe. A win in Nevada would re-jumpstart his campaign and give him new momentum going into super Tuesday.
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Salad
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2023, 10:56:58 AM »

Trump will win all four by double digits.
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