More likely to flip? Georgia or NC?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Georgia, though that speaks more to how difficult a lift North Carolina will be for Democrats than anything else. I can envision the two states diverging further in 2024.

What's actually interesting is that in 2022, GA and NC converged a bit more than I think most expected. The GCB and state legislature popular votes (when accounted for uncontested races) were nearly identical. If Budd was a Herschel-Walker tier candidate and Ds seriously invested like they did in GA, Beasley may have won, and vise-versa with Walker who already came close enough to force a runoff.

The good things for Ds in both states is that leftwards shifts in Atlanta, Charlotte, and Raleigh have been some of the most consistent in the nation. The bad news is in both states, there are so many other communities of substantial population.

[Schiff for Senate]

Depends on who the GOP candidate is and the state of the national environment.

Of course it depends upon those obvious factors. Care to further elaborate?
Say it's Biden vs DeSantis, Biden vs Trump, Harris vs DeSantis, Harris vs Trump. What would you consider likelier to flip in each scenario? Personally, I'd say with DeSantis, it's GA, with Trump vs Harris, it's 50-50, and with Trump vs Biden, it's NC.

Yeah I agree with your scenarios. I think Trump likely loses NC vs Biden at this rate, but Harris is bad enough that NC is still winnable for Trump. With DeSantis assuming he stays on message, I think he has a shot of flipping GA but it's within 2 points either way, because of demographics. I'm not super worried about RDS losing NC vs Biden or obviously Harris though.

It's definitely *winnable* for Trump, pretty much no matter what.

Pretty much agree with you, except GA may very well be more than Biden+2 if it's Trump he faces.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA obviously since it's not gonna be a D plus 8 Eday