Reminder: Republicans can still feasibly get 57 Senate Seats in 2024

[S019]

The idea that Democrats are even close to being favored in MT, OH, and WV is laughable. PA I think is the only real uphill battle for Rs on this map. It’s very plausible that all of NV/AZ/WI/WV/OH/MT fall if Republicans win the White House and MI if Republicans flip the state. The problem in PA is Casey will probably outrun Biden by a bit, so Republicans probably need more of a 2-3 pt win there while a 1-2 pt win in WI+MI could suffice.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can? Of course.

Will? I'm not so sure after 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The idea that Democrats are even close to being favored in MT, OH, and WV is laughable. PA I think is the only real uphill battle for Rs on this map. It’s very plausible that all of NV/AZ/WI/WV/OH/MT fall if Republicans win the White House and MI if Republicans flip the state. The problem in PA is Casey will probably outrun Biden by a bit, so Republicans probably need more of a 2-3 pt win there while a 1-2 pt win in WI+MI could suffice.

Exactly, though MI I think has a decent chance of being a decent D outperformance of Biden given just how much better the Dem bench is and the relative incompetence of the MI-GOP rn.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The idea that Democrats are even close to being favored in MT, OH, and WV is laughable. PA I think is the only real uphill battle for Rs on this map. It’s very plausible that all of NV/AZ/WI/WV/OH/MT fall if Republicans win the White House and MI if Republicans flip the state. The problem in PA is Casey will probably outrun Biden by a bit, so Republicans probably need more of a 2-3 pt win there while a 1-2 pt win in WI+MI could suffice.

Exactly, though MI I think has a decent chance of being a decent D outperformance of Biden given just how much better the Dem bench is and the relative incompetence of the MI-GOP rn.

The RS aren't sweeping just relax Eday is two yrs away we don't know the political fallout from the Documents just like Johnson is saying everything is gonna go the D's way, RS believe the opposite, there are no state by state polls not even for KY Gov RS aren't gonna win 57 seats, RS winning 57 seats is just as likely D's winning 53 seats FL, TX or MS, MO but states do go by trends but not all the time it's called split voting Cooper won NC in 20 while Tillis and Trump won NC and Warnock won GA while Abrams lost

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The idea that Democrats are even close to being favored in MT, OH, and WV is laughable. PA I think is the only real uphill battle for Rs on this map. It’s very plausible that all of NV/AZ/WI/WV/OH/MT fall if Republicans win the White House and MI if Republicans flip the state. The problem in PA is Casey will probably outrun Biden by a bit, so Republicans probably need more of a 2-3 pt win there while a 1-2 pt win in WI+MI could suffice.

LoL you predicted KS Gov wrong and WI, PA and NV, plse show me a poll that has Tester, Brown or Manchin losing

The issue is still inflation Rents are too high and gas is 4 after they said gas was going down to 2.00 they lied

This Economy isn't for working poor 9.50 an hr making 24/30K a yr it's for Rich or middle class people and they have money on white color jobs as well as inheritance if you work a Walmart job it's not a good Economy but if you are a Store Manager it's good for you

Why do you think it's Labor shortages people on SSA stopped looking for work ticket to work because of manual labor , Biden says everything is fine like Trump he lies too it's not

We always had working poor 9.50 an he you can't support a family off of that with inflation 15 is still low

[NewYorkExpress]

It's possible for Republicans to get as many as 61 or 62 seats in 2024 (everything except California, New York and Vermont is theoretically winnable for them), but their realistic ceiling is probably 50-52 seats if Biden wins (gain West Virginia, Montana and probably Ohio, lose Texas and possibly North Carolina), and 52-54 if Biden loses (gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, plus one of Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin).

[TML]

It's possible for Republicans to get as many as 61 or 62 seats in 2024 (everything except California, New York and Vermont is theoretically winnable for them), but their realistic ceiling is probably 50-52 seats if Biden wins (gain West Virginia, Montana and probably Ohio, lose Texas and possibly North Carolina), and 52-54 if Biden loses (gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, plus one of Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin).

Are you sure NC would have a Senate election in 2024? Based on my understanding of rules regarding Senate vacancies in NC, the vacancy would be filled by gubernatorial appointment (with the political party of the appointee matching that of the vacating Senator) and that individual would serve until the next regularly scheduled election for that seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's possible for Republicans to get as many as 61 or 62 seats in 2024 (everything except California, New York and Vermont is theoretically winnable for them), but their realistic ceiling is probably 50-52 seats if Biden wins (gain West Virginia, Montana and probably Ohio, lose Texas and possibly North Carolina), and 52-54 if Biden loses (gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, plus one of Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin).

Are you sure NC would have a Senate election in 2024? Based on my understanding of rules regarding Senate vacancies in NC, the vacancy would be filled by gubernatorial appointment (with the political party of the appointee matching that of the vacating Senator) and that individual would serve until the next regularly scheduled election for that seat.

Theoretically, could Cooper appoint a RINO?

I highly doubt either Tillis or Budd would resign willingly, and they're not that old and generally seem in good health. If it was an Isakson situation, one could speculate, but there's maybe a >1% chance either retires by 2024.

[NewYorkExpress]

It's possible for Republicans to get as many as 61 or 62 seats in 2024 (everything except California, New York and Vermont is theoretically winnable for them), but their realistic ceiling is probably 50-52 seats if Biden wins (gain West Virginia, Montana and probably Ohio, lose Texas and possibly North Carolina), and 52-54 if Biden loses (gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, plus one of Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin).

Are you sure NC would have a Senate election in 2024? Based on my understanding of rules regarding Senate vacancies in NC, the vacancy would be filled by gubernatorial appointment (with the political party of the appointee matching that of the vacating Senator) and that individual would serve until the next regularly scheduled election for that seat.

I was under the impression Tillis's seat was up in 2024.

Switch North Carolina with Florida and my point still stands.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's possible for Republicans to get as many as 61 or 62 seats in 2024 (everything except California, New York and Vermont is theoretically winnable for them), but their realistic ceiling is probably 50-52 seats if Biden wins (gain West Virginia, Montana and probably Ohio, lose Texas and possibly North Carolina), and 52-54 if Biden loses (gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, plus one of Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin).

Are you sure NC would have a Senate election in 2024? Based on my understanding of rules regarding Senate vacancies in NC, the vacancy would be filled by gubernatorial appointment (with the political party of the appointee matching that of the vacating Senator) and that individual would serve until the next regularly scheduled election for that seat.

I was under the impression Tillis's seat was up in 2024.

Switch North Carolina with Florida and my point still stands.

Oh yeah, but I'd much rather have a NC seat up than FL. Florida is slightly redder, has worse shifts, and is just a much bigger investment.

[TML]

It's possible for Republicans to get as many as 61 or 62 seats in 2024 (everything except California, New York and Vermont is theoretically winnable for them), but their realistic ceiling is probably 50-52 seats if Biden wins (gain West Virginia, Montana and probably Ohio, lose Texas and possibly North Carolina), and 52-54 if Biden loses (gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, plus one of Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin).

Are you sure NC would have a Senate election in 2024? Based on my understanding of rules regarding Senate vacancies in NC, the vacancy would be filled by gubernatorial appointment (with the political party of the appointee matching that of the vacating Senator) and that individual would serve until the next regularly scheduled election for that seat.

Theoretically, could Cooper appoint a RINO?

I highly doubt either Tillis or Budd would resign willingly, and they're not that old and generally seem in good health. If it was an Isakson situation, one could speculate, but there's maybe a >1% chance either retires by 2024.

Tillis has been speculated to run for governor in 2024. My point is that even if he does do that, his seat won't have an election in 2024 based on my understanding of NC's Senate vacancy rules.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's possible for Republicans to get as many as 61 or 62 seats in 2024 (everything except California, New York and Vermont is theoretically winnable for them), but their realistic ceiling is probably 50-52 seats if Biden wins (gain West Virginia, Montana and probably Ohio, lose Texas and possibly North Carolina), and 52-54 if Biden loses (gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, plus one of Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin).

Are you sure NC would have a Senate election in 2024? Based on my understanding of rules regarding Senate vacancies in NC, the vacancy would be filled by gubernatorial appointment (with the political party of the appointee matching that of the vacating Senator) and that individual would serve until the next regularly scheduled election for that seat.

Theoretically, could Cooper appoint a RINO?

I highly doubt either Tillis or Budd would resign willingly, and they're not that old and generally seem in good health. If it was an Isakson situation, one could speculate, but there's maybe a >1% chance either retires by 2024.

Tillis has been speculated to run for governor in 2024. My point is that even if he does do that, his seat won't have an election in 2024 based on my understanding of NC's Senate vacancy rules.

Just by running though, he doesn't have to step down right? It'd only be if he's actually elected in which case he appoints his successor.

[UncleSam]

It is feasible just as it’s feasible just as democrats winning 54/55. Are either going to happen? Very very unlikely.

You could've said "Ds winning 53" and it'd be comparable, and even that would require Dems holding every single seat (LOL West Virginia) and picking up TX and FL. And yeah, that result would be about as weird or arguably slightly weirder than the 57-43 R result OP posted.

But you went to 55 seats? That'd require Dems picking up...Missouri? Indiana? Dems lost both in the very good environment of 2018.

I’ll admit 55 was bullish, but in my mind 54 d is just as equal at 57 R. Dems win all the expected seats and then some fluke like Baldwin or Toomey loosing would be a fluke.

It’s hard to put Baldwin losing in a Biden +0 state on the same level as I.e. Hawley losing in Trump+15 Missouri. There’s no way the two situations are even remotely comparable.

Yes R 57-43 is ridiculously unlikely, but I think relative unlikelihood should be taken into account. 57-43 R is way more likely than even 54 D, much less 55.

We are two years out and I could be wrong, but in my mind there roughly equal. 57 R is more likely to be then 54 D. But 53 D is far more likely (in my two year out opinion) then 57 R

I’d say 57 R and 53 D are roughly equally likely as ‘reasonable best-case scenario’ outcomes for each party, but that’s definitely fair. Two years is a long time and who knows, maybe Susan Collins and Ron Johnson both resign and Trump loses by 15 in the GE. A lot can happen, but as of now assuming a fairly ‘normal’ cycle I think they’re both in a similar boat, with 53D being the more likely of the two because the 57 R scenario requires a larger number of races to go one way.

My thinking is to get to 57 republicans have to dislodge Baldwin and Casey. Both have strong brands in the state, and are generally popular and can outrun their party. Baldwin won in 2018 with 150,000 more votes then Evers. Also this probably means nothing but the Culver’s family did donate to her in 2018, and no other democrats (iirc). Casey’s situation I’m not as familiar with, but I know he has deep roots in the state. Maybe the could knock one out, but knocking both out would be incredulous at this point.

Absolutely agree, extremely unlikely on both of them. However, at the end of the day, they both represent states won by Trump in 2016. To get to 53, Ds need to win states that Trump won twice, both by solid margins. The baseline partisanship implies it is more likely Rs win WI / PA than that Ds win TX / FL. That being said, the D incumbent strength + the sheer number of pickups Rs would need to hit 57 implies to me that 53 D is slightly more likely, overall.

[Orser67]

If we're talking about the absolute best-case scenario for Republicans, I think MN and ME are feasible pickups if their respective incumbents retire.

[walleye26]

This is obviously a reach, but would Nebraska at this point be a likelier pickup than FL? For as red as NE is, a GOP collapse in Sarpy County and an underwhelming GOP turnout in Lancaster + Douglas might make it interesting. Biden did win an EV out of Nebraska after all.

A scenario would be like this: terrible GOP candidate gets nominated and a stronger Libertarian gets a decent-ish vote share (4%?) could make it close?

Biden won Douglas by 11 in 2020, and won Lancaster by 8, and lost Sarpy by 12. If you could win Douglas by 20 and Lancaster by 15, you start to really shift some vote numbers.

[The Mikado]

57 seats is the outer limits of feasible but it's not impossible.

That said, on even a good GOP night I'd expect 54-55 GOP seats. More requires Casey retiring as I just don't see any PA R able to beat him.

[MABA 2020]

Democrats are in a better position than we thought they'd be last year if 57 Republican seats is the worst case scenario

[Torie]

How is the economy going to be? What's going on in Ukraine? How is interstate trafficking in abortion working out? Any mothers being arrested for crossing state lines? Where is Trump? A lot is rolling around the deck.

[The Mikado]

Democrats are in a better position than we thought they'd be last year if 57 Republican seats is the worst case scenario

And even then, 57 requires the GOP to win:

WV
MT
OH

NV
AZ

WI
MI (OPEN)
PA

All. Divided into difficulty tiers by my own estimation though they're not particularly controversial here.

I think Dems have a really solid shot at all three of the bottom tiers. Tammy Baldwin and Bob Casey have always overperformed and if WI and PA are roughly even (a safe bet given they're the nation's top swing states) even a relatively modest overperformance puts them both comfortably over. Like, I don't think anyone would be surprised to see PA be Biden +1, Casey +7...and that'd still be Casey's worst performance ever. MI seems to be a step more Dem than those other two in that tier, which maybe evens out with it being an open seat. Besides, who's the GOP gonna run? John James and leave a key House seat open?

Basically, 57 R Senate seats is a feasible best case scenario for the GOP but it'd still require a lot of luck and the GOP doing substantially better than it did in 2016 and Trump winning by the skin of his teeth nationally. Trump romping to victory in an election where he flat out wins the PV is probably the world where this becomes plausible.

If we're assuming a fairly normal national climate, 52-54 R Senate seats strikes me as  the most likely scenario. In a really good Dem night, maybe only 50-51.

What about Dem pickup opportunities? Texas is gonna be a hard lift in a Presidential year (or, frankly, anything other than the midterm of an unpopular GOP President) and Florida seems increasingly off the table but Rick Scott has never been as popular as other Florida Rs. Will Rick Scott win by more than one point for once in his life? We'll see...but I wouldn't bet on him actually losing.

[Tekken_Guy]

Democrats are in a better position than we thought they'd be last year if 57 Republican seats is the worst case scenario

And even then, 57 requires the GOP to win:

WV
MT
OH

NV
AZ

WI
MI (OPEN)
PA

All. Divided into difficulty tiers by my own estimation though they're not particularly controversial here.

I think Dems have a really solid shot at all three of the bottom tiers. Tammy Baldwin and Bob Casey have always overperformed and if WI and PA are roughly even (a safe bet given they're the nation's top swing states) even a relatively modest overperformance puts them both comfortably over. Like, I don't think anyone would be surprised to see PA be Biden +1, Casey +7...and that'd still be Casey's worst performance ever. MI seems to be a step more Dem than those other two in that tier, which maybe evens out with it being an open seat. Besides, who's the GOP gonna run? John James and leave a key House seat open?

Basically, 57 R Senate seats is a feasible best case scenario for the GOP but it'd still require a lot of luck and the GOP doing substantially better than it did in 2016 and Trump winning by the skin of his teeth nationally. Trump romping to victory in an election where he flat out wins the PV is probably the world where this becomes plausible.

If we're assuming a fairly normal national climate, 52-54 R Senate seats strikes me as  the most likely scenario. In a really good Dem night, maybe only 50-51.

What about Dem pickup opportunities? Texas is gonna be a hard lift in a Presidential year (or, frankly, anything other than the midterm of an unpopular GOP President) and Florida seems increasingly off the table but Rick Scott has never been as popular as other Florida Rs. Will Rick Scott win by more than one point for once in his life? We'll see...but I wouldn't bet on him actually losing.

Why is Nevada in a different category than the rust belt trio? I understand the unique situation with AZ, but Rosen is an incumbent after all.

And is Trump really a sure thing to be the nominee? DeSantis is surging and he’ll have bigger coattails on the Senate level, and I think a DeSantis nomination would be accompanied by a stronger senate lineup anyways.

Besides a narrow Trump/DeSantis win only brings 52 or 53 seats. They don’t get anything other than the three pickups in solid R states and maybe AZ depending on Sinema.