Turkey elections 2023

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I do not believe that they are discriminated against. The earthquake response is just really really poor everywhere.

My instinct would be to think that this is, as I said, an understandably paranoid rationalization of otherwise inexplicable incompetence, but it makes little difference politically. Would be interesting to know what sentiment is like in the AKP strongholds devastated, actually.

As you can see casualties is correlated to how strong the earthquake was.

That's not actually quite true: Hatay is further along the fault from the epicentre and the earthquake was correspondingly weaker there. But the extreme damage and very high death tolls can be ascribed to drift geology: most of the populated areas are built on alluvial deposits, which is why the region has been hideously vulnerable when earthquakes strike for thousands of years.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Generically my impression is that "Act of God" type disasters tend to help the regime in the short run since any help the government can render is viewed in a positive way in a situation where the government could not plan for it.  Also, the collective action of everyone in dealing with adversity tends to consolidate support for the regime.  As time goes on this bump in support of the regime tends to reverse as the expected recovery takes longer than expected and is something the government can be expected to plan for.  So my guess is if the election is in the next couple of months this tends to help AKP but if the election is in 2024 this will hurt AKP.

In an awkward case of history repeating, Bulent Ecevit's government was undermined by its indecision after an earthquake in Izmit, partially boosting the support for Erdogan in 2002.

[CumbrianLefty]

Any theories on whether the earthquake will have any impact on the election? I've read some stories that Erdogan is being criticized for handling it badly...

So far yes. I guess it's too early to determine that.

I wanted to ask the question as well but thought it may be tasteless to some this early. But it's a legitimate question.

Its not a tasteless thing to ask at all IMO.

[Epaminondas]

What are the chances that this election is postponed?

My Turkish colleagues are convinced it will be, and perhaps even cancelled under this pretense.

[Oryxslayer]

Generically my impression is that "Act of God" type disasters tend to help the regime in the short run since any help the government can render is viewed in a positive way in a situation where the government could not plan for it.  Also, the collective action of everyone in dealing with adversity tends to consolidate support for the regime.  As time goes on this bump in support of the regime tends to reverse as the expected recovery takes longer than expected and is something the government can be expected to plan for.  So my guess is if the election is in the next couple of months this tends to help AKP but if the election is in 2024 this will hurt AKP.

In an awkward case of history repeating, Bulent Ecevit's government was undermined by its indecision after an earthquake in Izmit, partially boosting the support for Erdogan in 2002.

Yes, there's always two ways these things can go. Either there's a rally around the flag, or the effects caused by the disaster are quickly traced back to the government (usually via corruption or mismanagement) and it only serves to further sour public opinion.

[Mike88]

The opposition is already attacking Erdogan for the slow response to the earthquake:

“They failed in this as they failed in every other issue, they don’t know how to manage the state,” Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the main opposition party CHP, said. “If there is anyone responsible for this process, it is Erdoğan. It is this ruling party that has not prepared the country for an earthquake for 20 years.”

The so called "Earthquake tax" is also putting pressure over Erdogan, as where did the money went to.

[Sir Mohamed]

What are the chances that this election is postponed?

My Turkish colleagues are convinced it will be, and perhaps even cancelled under this pretense.

Cancelled? Is that even possible? I guess there's a statuary limit as to for how long elections can be postphoned. Usually shouldn't be for more than a few months.

[Earthling]

What are the chances that this election is postponed?

My Turkish colleagues are convinced it will be, and perhaps even cancelled under this pretense.

Cancelled? Is that even possible? I guess there's a statuary limit as to for how long elections can be postphoned. Usually shouldn't be for more than a few months.

Turkey is not a democracy anymore. It's not a full dictatorship yet, but democracy has died in recent years.

So if need be, Erdogan will just cancel the elections and promise to hold them when possible. Which could take years....

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Turkey does not have a particularly democratic society; but I think it's hyperbole to consider their elections are totally fraudulent events. The Opposition is a genuine one rather than a Russia style pseudo opposition, and they are able to win power - for starters they control 5 out of the 6 biggest cities.

[Earthling]

Turkey does not have a particularly democratic society; but I think it's hyperbole to consider their elections are totally fraudulent events. The Opposition is a genuine one rather than a Russia style pseudo opposition, and they are able to win power - for starters they control 5 out of the 6 biggest cities.

Well, in Istanbul a new election had to be held because the government did not like the results in 2019.
And just a couple of weeks ago the Mayor of Istanbul was convicted to almost 3 years in jail because of comments he made about that case.

Like I said, Turkey is not a real dictatorship like Russia. But it's well on his way to become one.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hungary may be a better comparison than Russia, but Turkey are still a bit behind them too as far as the pseudo-dictatorship model is concerned. Still hope that the Sultan will get what is coming to him, especially with more and more damning stuff emerging post-earthquake.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It looks like the election will almost certainly be pushed to June (the initial May date was Erdogan trying to cheese the results anyway), but beyond that would require a constitutional amendment, and require the CHP to sign off.

[Storr]

Yavas is a member of the CHP:

https://twitter.com/WashingtonPoint/status/1630556821810282496?s=20

[locked_out]

Yavas is a member of the CHP:

https://twitter.com/WashingtonPoint/status/1630556821810282496?s=20

How likely is this thought to be? My impression was that Kılıçdaroğlu had it sewn up more or less.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1630863692056219649?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1631336564553916418?s=20

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1631336564553916418?s=20

What happened to Imamoglu? Last I heard he was being talked up as the future of the opposition.

[CityofSinners]

The opposition coalition is no more. Nationalist oppositon party IYI breaks ranks with five other opposition parties and says it won’t support Kilicdaroglu (CHP) as the joint candidate.

Iyi is the second largest party in the coalition after Kilicdaroglu’s CHP.

The arguments about Kilicdaroglus deficits as a candidate are not wrong. Only hope now is that Kilicdaroglu understands there are better candidate and steps down. Not that I have much hope that will happen.


https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1631633256461348866

[Estrella]

Wouldn't having Kılıçdaroğlu and Akşener run separately in the first round be a better idea anyway? There's a reason why CHP is at polling at the same 20–25% they've been getting for the last twenty years while it's İYİ that profits from AKP's and especially MHP's fall.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The opposition in Turkey doesn't seem to want to win. There's a candidate who can win right there- Mansur Yavaş. Insane not to pick him.

[Dereich]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1631336564553916418?s=20

What happened to Imamoglu? Last I heard he was being talked up as the future of the opposition.

He was arrested and charged with insulting public officials for calling the interior minister a fool for cancelling the first mayoral election of Istanbul in 2019. He was sentenced in December to two and a half years in prison and banned from politics. So he's not a legal option currently.

[warandwar]

The opposition in Turkey doesn't seem to want to win. There's a candidate who can win right there- Mansur Yavaş. Insane not to pick him.

Each of the parties viscerally hates large portions of the country. Not the best way to win a majority.

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1631336564553916418?s=20

What happened to Imamoglu? Last I heard he was being talked up as the future of the opposition.

He was arrested and charged with insulting public officials for calling the interior minister a fool for cancelling the first mayoral election of Istanbul in 2019. He was sentenced in December to two and a half years in prison and banned from politics. So he's not a legal option currently.

According to a friend from Turkey, he appealed the decision to the constitutional court, and until they decide he's not yet a convicted felon. The decision might not happen until the election. This election will also be about that- if the opposition wins, you could expect this Putinist step to be reversed.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/adamsamson/status/1631927280103575553?s=20

[Logical]

The opposition in Turkey doesn't seem to want to win. There's a candidate who can win right there- Mansur Yavaş. Insane not to pick him.

Yavas is ex-AKP and is not trusted by liberals and Kurds.
Imamoglu is by far the best candidate in that he does not infuriate any part of the opposition base but this is Kilicdaroglu's "turn" apparently.