Will Kevin McCarthy be the Speaker of the House on January 2, 2025?

[Ferguson97]

Will Kevin McCarthy be the Speaker of the House on January 2, 2025?

In other words, will his speakership last for the remainder of the 118th Congress?

[President Johnson]

Not sure there are 218 votes to replace him. Especially with whom? They don't have someone more electable. I think he'll stick around while the Freedumb Caucus is pulling the strings.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Speakership is always a poisoned chalice for Republicans, especially in this Congress. I think Scalise won't want to drink from the cup until the next Congress - it will still be poisoned then, but perhaps less so and perhaps in the context of a Republican trifecta. Scalise is probably competent enough to keep the loyal soldiers behind McCarthy 'til then.

Obviously, McCarthy isn't in this for the long haul. His career as Speaker will last no more than four years, and that's being extremely generous (I think he's done after this Congress, but if Biden remains president after 2024, he has a chance of hanging in there for a little while).

[Ragnaroni]

It depends on the circumstances. Recession is a hard yes, GOP landslide loss is a hard no. Somewhere in between is my best guess.

[President Johnson]

It depends on the circumstances. Recession is a hard yes, GOP landslide loss is a hard no. Somewhere in between is my best guess.

Landslide loss in 2024? Why would he be replaced during the lame duck period of this congress? He'd just be out on January 3 when Jeffries gets elected speaker of the new Democratic majority.

[Del Tachi]

I'd argue McCarthy's leadership looks quite durable given the lack of Republican options to replace him.  We just went through an agonizing 15 rounds of voting with no credible opposition ever developing.