Did dems have a better night in New Jersey than Virginia?

[Red Wall]

In NJ dems gained a senate seat and 5 assembly seats. In VA dems flipped no senate seats and with two races left to call, most likely flipped 4 house seats. Dems also didn't win a single seat that voted for Biden by under 9 points in VA and only won some heavily hispanic seats by underwhelming margins (a warning sign for 2024), while in NJ their revenge against the guy who unseated thir senate leader in 2021 worked and they even won a Trump+30 seat thanks to orthodox jews. Keep in mind both State Senates have the same size and NJ assembly has 80 seats while VA house has 100. Sure one was a flip and the other only adds to their majority but it seems clear to me that NJ dems did quite better than VA dems who continue to be one of their most incompetent state parties.

[Birdish]

I feel like I'm being gas lit.

Holding onto one chamber while flipping another when both were competitive is not evidence of an incompetent state party. Nor should it continue to go unmentioned that Republicans still held both chambers  until 2019. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot, Biden wracking up a double digit victory in 2020 doesn't change that.

[kwabbit]

I feel like I'm being gas lit.

Holding onto one chamber while flipping another when both were competitive is not evidence of an incompetent state party. Nor should it continue to go unmentioned that Republicans still held both chambers  until 2019. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot, Biden wracking up a double digit victory in 2020 doesn't change that.

The old maps were gerrymandered IIRC. That's how the GOP managed to hold on to 2019.

[Birdish]

I feel like I'm being gas lit.

Holding onto one chamber while flipping another when both were competitive is not evidence of an incompetent state party. Nor should it continue to go unmentioned that Republicans still held both chambers  until 2019. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot, Biden wracking up a double digit victory in 2020 doesn't change that.

The old maps were gerrymandered IIRC. That's how the GOP managed to hold on to 2019.

Not sure that negates my point. Republicans have strength down ballot and both chambers were competitive with Republicans having held both as late as 2019. Democrats won both so I take offense to someone calling them "one of their most incompetent state parties".

[Progressive Pessimist]

Better than expected, for sure. The Norcross machine is back!
But the stakes mattered more in Virginia.

[Person Man]

When was the last time Democrats swept the state legislature during a D presidency? And if that seems like sophistry to you ask whether past results ever converted.

My take is that it shows that if the election were held today, Biden would probably do about as well or slightly worse here than 2016. In that environment, the PV is probably Tilt-Trump, which would originally put him on track to 2016+ME,NH,MN but with Republicans eroding in terms of efficiency, as depicted in 2022, and Trump’s tricks facing taller and taller challenges, it might only translate to a Tilt-R situation. But probably not. We’re still a year out.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I know that the NJ State Senate Generic Ballot was D +6, about a 10 point swing right from 2020. I'm not sure about VA, but it looks like around a tie, also a 10 swing right from 2020. So I'm not sure.

[Vosem]

Virginia state Democrats had a better night than New Jersey state Democrats. Flipping the state House is a great achievement (but of course New Jersey Democrats couldn't have done that because they never lost it to begin with).

Eyeballing it, it looks like national Democrats had a better night in New Jersey because the New Jersey results don't extrapolate to as Republican of a national picture as the Virginia results, but I need to look at the New Jersey results more closely.

[Lambsbread]

Somehow even when Democrats win, they lose according to the many large brain havers on the internet

Youngkin was pretty much hinging his political future on this election and not only did he fail to flip the VA Senate, he lost the HoD in the process. That is both a massive win for Democrats and a massive loss for a guy who has clearly been angling for a presidential run

[kwabbit]

I feel like I'm being gas lit.

Holding onto one chamber while flipping another when both were competitive is not evidence of an incompetent state party. Nor should it continue to go unmentioned that Republicans still held both chambers  until 2019. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot, Biden wracking up a double digit victory in 2020 doesn't change that.

The old maps were gerrymandered IIRC. That's how the GOP managed to hold on to 2019.

Not sure that negates my point. Republicans have strength down ballot and both chambers were competitive with Republicans having held both as late as 2019. Democrats won both so I take offense to someone calling them "one of their most incompetent state parties".

In fair maps they would've won control in 2017, which is more expected. They do have down ballot strength and it does make the GOP performance less impressive, but you can't directly compare fair maps to gerrymandered maps when talking about control.

[Vosem]

Somehow even when Democrats win, they lose according to the many large brain havers on the internet

2022 is actually a great example of this: Democrats won every race where both parties tried hard, won the top ten most expensive House races 9-1, and still lost the House. There is an enormous skew at many levels and it is literally true a lot of the time in American politics that "even when Democrats win they lose".

Youngkin was pretty much hinging his political future on this election and not only did he fail to flip the VA Senate, he lost the HoD in the process. That is both a massive win for Democrats and a massive loss for a guy who has clearly been angling for a presidential run

Zero people will care in a Youngkin presidential run about state legislative elections. Way too deep in the weeds.

[wbrocks67]

I know that the NJ State Senate Generic Ballot was D +6, about a 10 point swing right from 2020. I'm not sure about VA, but it looks like around a tie, also a 10 swing right from 2020. So I'm not sure.

Why do people keep comparing these #s to presidential #s? They are not comparable. Downballot in these states tends to be much different at times than presidential, especially with Trump on the ticket.

[wbrocks67]

I would say Dems though did have a better night in NJ simply just based on expectations. The predictions had Ds winning both in VA, and that's what happened. The predictions by most nonpartisan outlets were pretty spot on. Meanwhile, I don't think many people expected NJ Dems to flip so many seats. Both are obviously wins, but the NJ one is more of an overperformance imo vs. VA Dems doing what they needed to do.

[Vosem]

I know that the NJ State Senate Generic Ballot was D +6, about a 10 point swing right from 2020. I'm not sure about VA, but it looks like around a tie, also a 10 swing right from 2020. So I'm not sure.

Why do people keep comparing these #s to presidential #s? They are not comparable. Downballot in these states tends to be much different at times than presidential, especially with Trump on the ticket.

Because they're generic, so the effects of lots of candidates average out and in theory you get a picture of the broader environment. By comparison, it's hard to say that Beshear vs. Cameron reflects what a national environment will be like.

You're not wrong, but this is the reason people do it. Ultimately no two elections are alike, so if you want to extract information about some race somewhere you have to figure out which elections give you the most information.

[DrScholl]

Democrats had a good night in both states and there is no spinning it.

[Brittain33]

I know that the NJ State Senate Generic Ballot was D +6, about a 10 point swing right from 2020. I'm not sure about VA, but it looks like around a tie, also a 10 swing right from 2020. So I'm not sure.

Why do people keep comparing these #s to presidential #s? They are not comparable. Downballot in these states tends to be much different at times than presidential, especially with Trump on the ticket.

Because they're generic, so the effects of lots of candidates average out and in theory you get a picture of the broader environment. By comparison, it's hard to say that Beshear vs. Cameron reflects what a national environment will be like.

Do you think Trump in 2024 is going to win towns that Jon Bramnick won in NJ last night? You can best compare these off-year elections to other off-year elections, and by that measure they fell between 2021 (good Republican year) and 2017 and 2019 (banner Dem years). That’s good news for Dems when you have an incumbent President.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrats had a good night in both states and there is no spinning it.

That was true nationally with all state level elections. Demicrats are in a better shape from all of thise elections. Even Mississippi since Presley at least did better than Hood.