2024 with a two-term HRC presidency

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Let's say a few states go differently in 2016 and Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency. I think it's likely that the incumbency factor gets her re-elected in 2020, probably against Cruz or Rubio.

In this scenario, how would 2024 be looking right now? Tim Kaine would surely be next in line as the incumbent Vice President, but the likes of Senators Harris and Warren might be vying for it too. DeSantis would likely be the frontrunner in the GOP side, although his pitch might be different without the Trump presidency.

[Plankton5165]

She'd beat Cruz? Depends on how many more states go to her in 2016. Rubio would be less likely to lose.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Kaine didn't run in IRL 2020, when he'd almost certainly be the frontrunner (even if Biden jumped in, I think Kaine would beat him in a primary), then I don't think he runs in 2024 as the incumbent Vice President.

A lot probably depends on how 2018 and 2020 go for Democrats, whether they can stop the bleeding a bit, and how many seats Democrats can pick up (if any) in 2022, and who the incumbents would be, both in the Senate and in the Governor's mansions.

I'd guess that someone like Tammy Baldwin (if she didn't lose in 2018) would be the nominee, otherwise I'd guess that the nominee would probably be a younger progressive type (maybe Ayanna Pressley if she runs for Markey's seat instead of Joe Kennedy III), or an older progressive who can serve as the "next in line candidate" after Kaine declines to run (almost certainly Bernie Sanders-he might even beat Kaine in a primary if both run) would be the Republican nominee.

Republicans would almost certainly either nominate someone from the their 2018 or 2020 Senate or Gubernatorial class. While Cruz would start out as the perceived next in line (not Pence), he'd be a weaker version of Jeb Bush, since pretty much no one in the party likes him. He bails well before Iowa to focus on his reelection bid (and loses that too, even as Republicans still carry Texas at the Presidential level). The frontrunners would probably be Josh Hawley (still elected to the Senate in 2018), Paul Ryan (still Speaker of the House, the only top candidate not in the 2018 or 2020 class, he occupies the Newt Gingrich 2012 of this field), and probably Ron DeSantis (elected Governor of Florida in 2018) and possibly Nikki Haley (leaves office as Governor of South Carolina in 2018).

Not sure who wins the Republican nomination, but no matter who it is, they are favored.

[YoshiyaDayan]

maybe youre looking for reagant's upon a cross of globalism in this timeline Clinton wins in 2016 against Trump and in 2020 against Paul Ryan. In 2024 Tucker Carlson becomes President. Under him and his successor Joshua Hawley, USA becomes a Conservative Republican stronghold, but in 2040 a Democrat takes power, is deposed in coup in 2044, Admiral Eric Gallagher establishes Conservative dominance once again.

[President Johnson]

If Kaine didn't run in IRL 2020, when he'd almost certainly be the frontrunner (even if Biden jumped in, I think Kaine would beat him in a primary), then I don't think he runs in 2024 as the incumbent Vice President.

A lot probably depends on how 2018 and 2020 go for Democrats, whether they can stop the bleeding a bit, and how many seats Democrats can pick up (if any) in 2022, and who the incumbents would be, both in the Senate and in the Governor's mansions.

I'd guess that someone like Tammy Baldwin (if she didn't lose in 2018) would be the nominee, otherwise I'd guess that the nominee would probably be a younger progressive type (maybe Ayanna Pressley if she runs for Markey's seat instead of Joe Kennedy III), or an older progressive who can serve as the "next in line candidate" after Kaine declines to run (almost certainly Bernie Sanders-he might even beat Kaine in a primary if both run) would be the Republican nominee.

Republicans would almost certainly either nominate someone from the their 2018 or 2020 Senate or Gubernatorial class. While Cruz would start out as the perceived next in line (not Pence), he'd be a weaker version of Jeb Bush, since pretty much no one in the party likes him. He bails well before Iowa to focus on his reelection bid (and loses that too, even as Republicans still carry Texas at the Presidential level). The frontrunners would probably be Josh Hawley (still elected to the Senate in 2018), Paul Ryan (still Speaker of the House, the only top candidate not in the 2018 or 2020 class, he occupies the Newt Gingrich 2012 of this field), and probably Ron DeSantis (elected Governor of Florida in 2018) and possibly Nikki Haley (leaves office as Governor of South Carolina in 2018).

Not sure who wins the Republican nomination, but no matter who it is, they are favored.

You mean Kaine would be the frontrunner if he didn't step down from the vice presidential spot in 2020? Maybe, though I think he would have skipped a presidential run. He just makes the impression to me that he didn't have presidential ambitions would be happy to go into retirement as elder statesman.

There's no chance Biden ever runs for president again after Hillary wins in 2016.

[Alben Barkley]

If Kaine didn't run in IRL 2020, when he'd almost certainly be the frontrunner (even if Biden jumped in, I think Kaine would beat him in a primary), then I don't think he runs in 2024 as the incumbent Vice President.

Lol

[Alben Barkley]

You mean Kaine would be the frontrunner if he didn't step down from the vice presidential spot in 2020? Maybe, though I think he would have skipped a presidential run. He just makes the impression to me that he didn't have presidential ambitions would be happy to go into retirement as elder statesman.

There's no chance Biden ever runs for president again after Hillary wins in 2016.

No, he is saying that Kaine would have been the frontrunner "IRL" (in real life) in 2020, meaning even after the Clinton/Kaine ticket lost, he would have somehow easily beaten Biden and the rest of the field.

This is obviously hysterical, hence my previous post being "Lol."

[LabourJersey]

If Kaine didn't run in IRL 2020, when he'd almost certainly be the frontrunner (even if Biden jumped in, I think Kaine would beat him in a primary), then I don't think he runs in 2024 as the incumbent Vice President.

A lot probably depends on how 2018 and 2020 go for Democrats, whether they can stop the bleeding a bit, and how many seats Democrats can pick up (if any) in 2022, and who the incumbents would be, both in the Senate and in the Governor's mansions.

I'd guess that someone like Tammy Baldwin (if she didn't lose in 2018) would be the nominee, otherwise I'd guess that the nominee would probably be a younger progressive type (maybe Ayanna Pressley if she runs for Markey's seat instead of Joe Kennedy III), or an older progressive who can serve as the "next in line candidate" after Kaine declines to run (almost certainly Bernie Sanders-he might even beat Kaine in a primary if both run) would be the Republican nominee.

Republicans would almost certainly either nominate someone from the their 2018 or 2020 Senate or Gubernatorial class. While Cruz would start out as the perceived next in line (not Pence), he'd be a weaker version of Jeb Bush, since pretty much no one in the party likes him. He bails well before Iowa to focus on his reelection bid (and loses that too, even as Republicans still carry Texas at the Presidential level). The frontrunners would probably be Josh Hawley (still elected to the Senate in 2018), Paul Ryan (still Speaker of the House, the only top candidate not in the 2018 or 2020 class, he occupies the Newt Gingrich 2012 of this field), and probably Ron DeSantis (elected Governor of Florida in 2018) and possibly Nikki Haley (leaves office as Governor of South Carolina in 2018).

Not sure who wins the Republican nomination, but no matter who it is, they are favored.

If Kaine ran in 2020 (as in our real 2020 primary) he absolutely would not have been a major force, and Biden could/would have beaten him.

Kaine was adequate as a VP choice for Clinton but he has no base outside of Virginia. He definitely would have struggled to gain traction if he ran in 2020, especially in as crowded and chaotic a field as the one we had.

[Agonized-Statism]

Will no doubt get pushback on this but I don't think any president would win reelection in 2020, at least not easily. Because COVID was so uniquely controversial in the US- there was always going to be an anti-mask and anti-lockdown element- there's bound to be pushback from that direction, and Clinton wouldn't have a lot of room to lose support running for a then-unprecedented fourth term of one party administration having already won on a squeaker assuming the freiwal map in 2016. Not impossible, but very much an uphill fight.

In any case, assuming Ukraine hasn't been escalated to a point where things change dramatically, there's probably some infighting between the Democrat factions over the 2024 primaries. Republicans definitely chart some new course after four consecutive losses. My guess is with Josh Hawley, who rebrands conservatism as a communitarian movement.

[Epaminondas]

Will no doubt get pushback on this but I don't think any president would win reelection in 2020, at least not easily. Because COVID was so uniquely controversial in the US- there was always going to be an anti-mask and anti-lockdown element- there's bound to be pushback from that direction, and Clinton wouldn't have a lot of room to lose support running for a then-unprecedented fourth term of one party administration having already won on a squeaker assuming the freiwal map in 2016. Not impossible, but very much an uphill fight.

Agreed. The US dodged a bullet in 2016, as between Covid, Hillary's flatlining approvals, apathy in young voters convinced the presidency was now a lock and didn't require their vote, and a fourth consecutive Dem mandate, a 2020 blowout was on the cards.

Let's just imagine the horror of Trump's rabid 74 million voters coming out vs. Hillary's lethargic 65m.

[Samof94]

Will no doubt get pushback on this but I don't think any president would win reelection in 2020, at least not easily. Because COVID was so uniquely controversial in the US- there was always going to be an anti-mask and anti-lockdown element- there's bound to be pushback from that direction, and Clinton wouldn't have a lot of room to lose support running for a then-unprecedented fourth term of one party administration having already won on a squeaker assuming the freiwal map in 2016. Not impossible, but very much an uphill fight.

Agreed. The US dodged a bullet in 2016, as between Covid, Hillary's flatlining approvals, apathy in young voters convinced the presidency was now a lock and didn't require their vote, and a fourth consecutive Dem mandate, a 2020 blowout was on the cards.

Let's just imagine the horror of Trump's rabid 74 million voters coming out vs. Hillary's lethargic 65m.

Don't forget that there was a group of left-wing voters who hated Hillary.

[Epaminondas]

Don't forget that there was a group of left-wing voters who hated Hillary.

I could easily see asymmetric apathy leading to a GOP +5 year in 2020 under Clinton, which would be a 35 state landslide.

[Samof94]

Don't forget that there was a group of left-wing voters who hated Hillary.

I could easily see asymmetric apathy leading to a GOP +5 year in 2020 under Clinton, which would be a 35 state landslide.

I can image 2018 being ugly in this timeline too. Just imagine GOP ads tying blue state Govs to Hillary and a Republican win in Oregon.