Counties with highest % of W Bush-Biden voters
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  Counties with highest % of W Bush-Biden voters
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Author Topic: Counties with highest % of W Bush-Biden voters  (Read 2196 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: January 16, 2023, 06:05:25 AM »

If I had to guess:

Chester PA
Fairfax VA
Loudoun VA
Prince William VA
DuPage IL
Lake IL
Forsyth GA
Collin TX
Tarrant TX
El Paso CO
Douglas CO
Orange CA
San Diego CA
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Snow Belt Republican
Ragnaroni
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« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2023, 06:30:43 AM »

If I had to guess:

Chester PA
Fairfax VA
Loudoun VA
Prince William VA
DuPage IL
Lake IL
Forsyth GA
Collin TX
Tarrant TX
El Paso CO
Douglas CO
Orange CA
San Diego CA
I mean, the demographics of these counties from 2000-2004 and 2020 are drastically different. I might add Riverside and San Bernardino CA but they swung before Biden IIRC. There's also the county for Indianapolis which was red during Bush's time no?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2023, 01:53:56 PM »

Rockdale County saw biggest swing as it was only Bush 04 county where Trump got under 30% while Bush got almost 60%.  But not sure a lot of voters swung as demographics changed massively and much of Biden's gains probably came from voters who moved to county since.  It was still fairly white in 2004 while today African-Americans are majority.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2023, 05:54:03 PM »

If I had to guess:

Chester PA
Fairfax VA
Loudoun VA
Prince William VA
DuPage IL
Lake IL
Forsyth GA
Collin TX
Tarrant TX
El Paso CO
Douglas CO
Orange CA
San Diego CA
I mean, the demographics of these counties from 2000-2004 and 2020 are drastically different. I might add Riverside and San Bernardino CA but they swung before Biden IIRC. There's also the county for Indianapolis which was red during Bush's time no?

Marion County, IN  voted Republican in 2000 but went for Kerry in 2004. Mostly it’s because white middle class republicans moved out of places like Wayne and Pike townships and into Hamilton and Hendricks Counties.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2023, 11:20:35 PM »

Travis County, TX?  Biden got 71%, yet Bush actually won it in 2000.  (Granted, with a plurality thanks to Nader’s strong showing, but Bush still got 47%, a lot more than what Trump received.)
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2023, 12:27:36 PM »

It's hard to quantify since the counties with the most drastic swings to the left are those with the most drastic demographic changes. Remember that Bush's elections are 20 years in retrospect, and many of these counties are very different places from what they were in the early 2000s. The best candidates for the counties with the most Bush-Biden voters are those Democratic-trending counties which are still largely white today and aren't 50% larger population-wise than in 2000. Some are still overwhelmingly Republican, just not as much as they were back then. The WOW counties, Kent/Ottawa/Oakland MI, Chester/Centre PA, Johnson KS, Oklahoma OK, Hamilton IN, and Delaware OH are all good possibilities.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
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« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2023, 02:29:04 PM »

Travis County, TX?  Biden got 71%, yet Bush actually won it in 2000.  (Granted, with a plurality thanks to Nader’s strong showing, but Bush still got 47%, a lot more than what Trump received.)

Travis County went from a population of 800k in 2000 and 1.3M in 2020, and the demographics of people moving to Austin skews very liberal.

Trump's 2020 performance in Travis County is actually a record for the Republicans, 161k votes, compared to Bush's 141k in 2000. But when you compare Biden and Gore, it's not even close. Gore got 125k votes. Biden got 436k.

Bush-Biden voters certainly exist in Travis County, but much less than seems at first glance. More an influx of Democrats than flipping of Republicans.
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Computer89
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« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2023, 11:32:35 PM »

Travis County, TX?  Biden got 71%, yet Bush actually won it in 2000.  (Granted, with a plurality thanks to Nader’s strong showing, but Bush still got 47%, a lot more than what Trump received.)

Travis County went from a population of 800k in 2000 and 1.3M in 2020, and the demographics of people moving to Austin skews very liberal.

Trump's 2020 performance in Travis County is actually a record for the Republicans, 161k votes, compared to Bush's 141k in 2000. But when you compare Biden and Gore, it's not even close. Gore got 125k votes. Biden got 436k.

Bush-Biden voters certainly exist in Travis County, but much less than seems at first glance. More an influx of Democrats than flipping of Republicans.

Keep in mind though that turnout was way way higher in 2020 than 2000 so I think 2016 raw vote totals are probably a better stat to use.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2023, 01:07:42 PM »

Travis County, TX?  Biden got 71%, yet Bush actually won it in 2000.  (Granted, with a plurality thanks to Nader’s strong showing, but Bush still got 47%, a lot more than what Trump received.)

Travis County went from a population of 800k in 2000 and 1.3M in 2020, and the demographics of people moving to Austin skews very liberal.

Trump's 2020 performance in Travis County is actually a record for the Republicans, 161k votes, compared to Bush's 141k in 2000. But when you compare Biden and Gore, it's not even close. Gore got 125k votes. Biden got 436k.

Bush-Biden voters certainly exist in Travis County, but much less than seems at first glance. More an influx of Democrats than flipping of Republicans.

Keep in mind though that turnout was way way higher in 2020 than 2000 so I think 2016 raw vote totals are probably a better stat to use.

Fair point, 2016 had Trump getting fewer votes than Bush, but Clinton still more than doubled Gore's vote total. Travis County saw a shift among suburban college whites like everywhere else in the country, but the rapid leftward shift probably has much more to do with new arrivals
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2023, 02:32:10 PM »

My county's (Fayette KY) gotta be one, voted for Dubya twice then 60% for Biden.
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Republican Party Stalwart
Stalwart_Grantist
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« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2023, 08:00:36 PM »

My county's (Fayette KY) gotta be one, voted for Dubya twice then 60% for Biden.

Side note: 2020 was the first time since 1948 that Fayette County leaned Democratic (by margin of victory) relative to Jefferson County (which also probably has a large number of W-Biden voters, considering that Gore won it by plurality in 2000 and that the county's margin of victory was in the single digits in both 2000 and 2004).
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strangeland
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« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2023, 08:38:21 AM »

It's hard to quantify since the counties with the most drastic swings to the left are those with the most drastic demographic changes. Remember that Bush's elections are 20 years in retrospect, and many of these counties are very different places from what they were in the early 2000s. The best candidates for the counties with the most Bush-Biden voters are those Democratic-trending counties which are still largely white today and aren't 50% larger population-wise than in 2000. Some are still overwhelmingly Republican, just not as much as they were back then. The WOW counties, Kent/Ottawa/Oakland MI, Chester/Centre PA, Johnson KS, Oklahoma OK, Hamilton IN, and Delaware OH are all good possibilities.
W'04 -> Biden'20 voters aren't that common, though they certainly do exist. What happens more often is that their kids vote for Biden.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2023, 08:00:52 PM »

Probably heavily military counties if we're looking at ones without major demographic changes.
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