How did Ds collapse so fast with Cubans?

[ProgressiveModerate]

One stat I find an absolutely insane is the new heavily Cuban FL-26. It outright voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and gave Trump about 60% of the vote in 2020, and just gave DeSantis over 70% in 2022.

That’s insane

I’m not surprised by the fact Cubans are more predisposed to vote R or the fact in recent cycles, they’ve shifted R, but I rlly can’t think of any other parts of the country where there’s been that dramatic of a political shift in such a recent period of time. It’s very clear there’s a *huge* chunk of Cubans who voted for Clinton in 2016, then Trump 2020 and DeSantis 2022x

Furthermore if Cubans are that volatile of a voting block, then why is the general narrative Ds can never win them back? Up until 2020, Miami-Dade had actually been a pretty consistent left shifting county.

[Skill and Chance]

Looks like it was a one/two time swing for Clinton 2016 and Obama 2012 from people who otherwise voted Republican their whole lives.  Miami-Dade was never >60% Dem in a presidential election before that until you get all the way back to the Old South days.  It still went for Biden by a wider margin than it went for Gore. 

[Kamala's side hoe]

What Skill and Chance said, but as far as voter turnout and persuasion are concerned…

The rise of Bernie and AOC as prominent figures in the party made Biden and other Democrats more vulnerable to those attacks.

This is 100% correct- however, the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, the Florida Democratic Party,Biden's campaign, and Biden himself all failed in organizing, outreach, and messaging and got complacent and the right went into full disinformation/propaganda mode in the county. Spanish radio down there has a lot of Rush Limbaugh personalities as well as incredibly over the top and effective propaganda. Read this to get an insight into it: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/10/meet-the-youtube-star-whos-pushing-a-generation-of-floridas-cuban-voters-to-trump/

What is clear is that a very significant change occurred in the Cuban community of Miami-Dade between 2016 and 2020, as along with the Republican shift occurred a revitalization of pro-embargo sentiment and anti-Cuban government opinions among all age groups. Among immigrants, the newest arrivals registering are also much more uniformly Republican than earlier ones (although in 2016 the newest arrivals were more likely to register as Independents or Democrats than their earlier counterparts, so this is a clear reversal):


Image Link

How long this trend continues into the future only time will tell. What we do know though is that 2022 definitely did not stop it.

I wonder exactly what role Alex Otaola played in this. Did he single handedly R-pill millions of cubanos or was he redpilled by the same Don Giovanni Vosem Randian crystals everyone else in South Florida came under the spell of? IIRC from an article someone posted here once, he became inspired to be a R-aligned polemic sometime around 2018 but I don’t remember if it was before or after the midterm election. Wiki says his show thing started in 2017?

It definitely isn't because of one person or thing, but rather it was a confluence of factors including changes in American policy towards Cuba and the already existing sentiment. Otaola's popularity (actually I didn't know who this guy was, I had to search him up) is more of an indicator or symptom than a cause, I'd think, although perhaps in combination with others like himself it could be a cause.

[pikachu]

Furthermore if Cubans are that volatile of a voting block, then why is the general narrative Ds can never win them back? Up until 2020, Miami-Dade had actually been a pretty consistent left shifting county.

A lot of people talking about elections online have a tendency to say that trends from the last election or two will continue forever and nothing will stop them. As we all know, a lot of Democrats were guilty of this wrt Cubans after 2016.

But more to the question, iirc from an ethnic politics seminar I took during undergrad, Latino and Asian voters (particularly first-gen ones) are less attached to partisan identities and therefore more open to persuasion than white or black voters. Intuitively that makes sense.  

Edit: Also among Cubans, like with a lot of recent immigrants groups, there are still of nonvoters bc of foreign-born residents and second-generation Americans who haven't reached voting age. Those people + potential future emigres (even if Cuban immigration wasn't what it was at its peak, it's still happening), create the potential for more volatility as they transition into becoming voters.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because they're still resentful of the Castro regime (which is justifiable) and very prone to alarmism, fear-mongering, and misinformation; specifically relating to the new red scare, even if it means that they end up supporting the more Castro-like strongman candidate (not as justifiable).

[Tintrlvr]

The Democrats' relative strength with Cubans was the fleeting thing. Cubans were as strongly Republican as they are now up until 2008, when there was a very sharp swing towards the Democrats. They swung further Democratic in 2012 and even further in 2016 before essentially reverting to 2004 patterns in 2020.

I read an interesting fact recently that the Miami metro area has the highest enrollment rate in the federal health insurance marketplace ("Obamacare") in the country, and that it is frequently marketed, positively, in the Miami area as "Obamacare", even or maybe especially in heavily Republican Cuban areas. (The story was focused on the currently looming enrollment deadline for this year in particular, but also the lasting impact of the ACA in Miami generally.)

I wonder if this doesn't have a surprising amount to do with it, in particular a very strong affection for Obama through his signature healthcare initiative that carried over to the immediately succeeding Democratic candidate but by 2020 when healthcare was no longer near the top of the issues list and Obama had faded somewhat from the front of the public consciousness didn't matter any more, so Cuban voters reverted to their default position.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Democrats' relative strength with Cubans was the fleeting thing. Cubans were as strongly Republican as they are now up until 2008, when there was a very sharp swing towards the Democrats. They swung further Democratic in 2012 and even further in 2016 before essentially reverting to 2004 patterns in 2020.

I read an interesting fact recently that the Miami metro area has the highest enrollment rate in the federal health insurance marketplace ("Obamacare") in the country, and that it is frequently marketed, positively, in the Miami area as "Obamacare", even or maybe especially in heavily Republican Cuban areas. (The story was focused on the currently looming enrollment deadline for this year in particular, but also the lasting impact of the ACA in Miami generally.)

I wonder if this doesn't have a surprising amount to do with it, in particular a very strong affection for Obama through his signature healthcare initiative that carried over to the immediately succeeding Democratic candidate but by 2020 when healthcare was no longer near the top of the issues list and Obama had faded somewhat from the front of the public consciousness didn't matter any more, so Cuban voters reverted to their default position.

This is actually a really interesting thought, and is further backed up by the fact Obama did significantly better with Cubans in 2012 than he did in 2008.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's the NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/11/us/obamacare-aca-miami-fl.html

It's a thought, anyway.

[Hope For A New Era]

Fascinating! I've heard nothing about that before.

Do we think there are any policies Biden has done that could result in a similar unexpected swing?

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/03/16/new-poll-shows-cuban-american-voters-align-with-gop-1368365

But now 66 percent of those polled by Bendixen & Amandi International opposed reverting back to Obama policies toward Cuba. In a poll done by the same group in 2015, 51 percent backed the former president’s effort. The new poll also showed a major shift in support for keeping the decades-old trade embargo against Cuba. Six years ago, only 36 percent favored retaining the embargo. Now 66 percent say they favor keeping it in place. The poll also found a majority — 56 percent — oppose easing travel restrictions.

In 2015 they were also more open to ending the embargo , while by 2021 they became vehemently opposed to it

[Hope For A New Era]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/03/16/new-poll-shows-cuban-american-voters-align-with-gop-1368365

But now 66 percent of those polled by Bendixen & Amandi International opposed reverting back to Obama policies toward Cuba. In a poll done by the same group in 2015, 51 percent backed the former president’s effort. The new poll also showed a major shift in support for keeping the decades-old trade embargo against Cuba. Six years ago, only 36 percent favored retaining the embargo. Now 66 percent say they favor keeping it in place. The poll also found a majority — 56 percent — oppose easing travel restrictions.

In 2015 they were also more open to ending the embargo , while by 2021 they became vehemently opposed to it

Yes. The question is why and how such a dramatic change happened so fast.

[Beet]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/03/16/new-poll-shows-cuban-american-voters-align-with-gop-1368365

But now 66 percent of those polled by Bendixen & Amandi International opposed reverting back to Obama policies toward Cuba. In a poll done by the same group in 2015, 51 percent backed the former president’s effort. The new poll also showed a major shift in support for keeping the decades-old trade embargo against Cuba. Six years ago, only 36 percent favored retaining the embargo. Now 66 percent say they favor keeping it in place. The poll also found a majority — 56 percent — oppose easing travel restrictions.

In 2015 they were also more open to ending the embargo , while by 2021 they became vehemently opposed to it

Yes. The question is why and how such a dramatic change happened so fast.

Yeah somehow "2008-2016 was an aberration" doesn't quite explain it. There have been shifts in the substantive political views of Miami Cubans apart from Obama.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/03/16/new-poll-shows-cuban-american-voters-align-with-gop-1368365

But now 66 percent of those polled by Bendixen & Amandi International opposed reverting back to Obama policies toward Cuba. In a poll done by the same group in 2015, 51 percent backed the former president’s effort. The new poll also showed a major shift in support for keeping the decades-old trade embargo against Cuba. Six years ago, only 36 percent favored retaining the embargo. Now 66 percent say they favor keeping it in place. The poll also found a majority — 56 percent — oppose easing travel restrictions.

In 2015 they were also more open to ending the embargo , while by 2021 they became vehemently opposed to it

Yes. The question is why and how such a dramatic change happened so fast.

Yeah somehow "2008-2016 was an aberration" doesn't quite explain it. There have been shifts in the substantive political views of Miami Cubans apart from Obama.

Alex Otaola and the right-wing disinformation network on Whatsapp are definitely part of it. Worth looking into why post-2010 arrivals are so R-leaning, and how the right-wing Spanish-language media environment in South Florida developed.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Maybe it's worth considering Cubans as a high-income, low college education white ethnic group. DRA estimates Hispanics in Miami-Dade as being 65-35 R. DRA also estimates Whites in Nassau, Suffolk, and Richmond counties as being 65-35 R. This isn't an apples to oranges comparison and it is just a coincidence that the numbers perfectly align -- but, it is worth noting that in every other way other than being White Hispanic, Cubans seem like a prototypical example of the type of voter Trump naturally appealed to. Maybe 2016 (explained by concerns over racism, possibly more recent immigration history) hid Ds losing appeal, and 2018/2020/2022 revealed the "true" state of the Cuban vote.

I don't know if I'm fully convinced by this theory. Views on Cuba probably still do influence the Cuban-American (and certainly, other Miami metro Hispanic groups) vote. But, put another way: is it really strange that a 78% White, 19% College-educated, higher than national median income suburb like Hialeah would be strongly Republican?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/03/16/new-poll-shows-cuban-american-voters-align-with-gop-1368365

But now 66 percent of those polled by Bendixen & Amandi International opposed reverting back to Obama policies toward Cuba. In a poll done by the same group in 2015, 51 percent backed the former president’s effort. The new poll also showed a major shift in support for keeping the decades-old trade embargo against Cuba. Six years ago, only 36 percent favored retaining the embargo. Now 66 percent say they favor keeping it in place. The poll also found a majority — 56 percent — oppose easing travel restrictions.

In 2015 they were also more open to ending the embargo , while by 2021 they became vehemently opposed to it

Yes. The question is why and how such a dramatic change happened so fast.

Yeah somehow "2008-2016 was an aberration" doesn't quite explain it. There have been shifts in the substantive political views of Miami Cubans apart from Obama.

Alex Otaola and the right-wing disinformation network on Whatsapp are definitely part of it. Worth looking into why post-2010 arrivals are so R-leaning, and how the right-wing Spanish-language media environment in South Florida developed.

Was there really no left wing media market to counteract that at all?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

One of the parties* most visible media figures getting a lot of air time devoted this his weird Cuban Communist whataboutisms probably didn't help.

[Alcibiades]

Maybe it's worth considering Cubans as a high-income, low college education white ethnic group. DRA estimates Hispanics in Miami-Dade as being 65-35 R. DRA also estimates Whites in Nassau, Suffolk, and Richmond counties as being 65-35 R. This isn't an apples to oranges comparison and it is just a coincidence that the numbers perfectly align -- but, it is worth noting that in every other way other than being White Hispanic, Cubans seem like a prototypical example of the type of voter Trump naturally appealed to. Maybe 2016 (explained by concerns over racism, possibly more recent immigration history) hid Ds losing appeal, and 2018/2020/2022 revealed the "true" state of the Cuban vote.

I don't know if I'm fully convinced by this theory. Views on Cuba probably still do influence the Cuban-American (and certainly, other Miami metro Hispanic groups) vote. But, put another way: is it really strange that a 78% White, 19% College-educated, higher than national median income suburb like Hialeah would be strongly Republican?

But Hialeah isn’t higher than the national median income. In fact quite the opposite: it’s really quite poor.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Maybe it's worth considering Cubans as a high-income, low college education white ethnic group… put another way: is it really strange that a 78% White, 19% College-educated, higher than national median income suburb like Hialeah would be strongly Republican?

Depends on which sources you use. Hialeah isn’t known for being a particularly well-off inner suburb.
https://datausa.io/profile/geo/hialeah-fl/

In 2020, Hialeah, FL had a population of 234k people with a median age of 44.3 and a median household income of $38,471. Between 2019 and 2020 the population of Hialeah, FL declined from 234,539 to 233,876, a −0.283% decrease and its median household income grew from $35,068 to $38,471, a 9.7% increase.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe it's worth considering Cubans as a high-income, low college education white ethnic group. DRA estimates Hispanics in Miami-Dade as being 65-35 R. DRA also estimates Whites in Nassau, Suffolk, and Richmond counties as being 65-35 R. This isn't an apples to oranges comparison and it is just a coincidence that the numbers perfectly align -- but, it is worth noting that in every other way other than being White Hispanic, Cubans seem like a prototypical example of the type of voter Trump naturally appealed to. Maybe 2016 (explained by concerns over racism, possibly more recent immigration history) hid Ds losing appeal, and 2018/2020/2022 revealed the "true" state of the Cuban vote.

I don't know if I'm fully convinced by this theory. Views on Cuba probably still do influence the Cuban-American (and certainly, other Miami metro Hispanic groups) vote. But, put another way: is it really strange that a 78% White, 19% College-educated, higher than national median income suburb like Hialeah would be strongly Republican?

But Hialeah isn’t higher than the national median income. In fact quite the opposite: it’s really quite poor.

Plus, Biden actually improved on Obama in a lot of the wealthier/more educated Cuban suburbs closer to the coast between Kendall and downtown Miami.

The Cuban areas that have seen the biggest swings right are all relatively lower education and lower income.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Maybe it's worth considering Cubans as a high-income, low college education white ethnic group… put another way: is it really strange that a 78% White, 19% College-educated, higher than national median income suburb like Hialeah would be strongly Republican?

Depends on which sources you use. Hialeah isn’t known for being a particularly well-off inner suburb.
https://datausa.io/profile/geo/hialeah-fl/

In 2020, Hialeah, FL had a population of 234k people with a median age of 44.3 and a median household income of $38,471. Between 2019 and 2020 the population of Hialeah, FL declined from 234,539 to 233,876, a −0.283% decrease and its median household income grew from $35,068 to $38,471, a 9.7% increase.

You're right: I confused median household income and median income. I still think the comparison holds up -- after all, Trump did improve with less wealthy non-college educated White suburbs as well -- but it does make it less precise.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe it's worth considering Cubans as a high-income, low college education white ethnic group… put another way: is it really strange that a 78% White, 19% College-educated, higher than national median income suburb like Hialeah would be strongly Republican?

Depends on which sources you use. Hialeah isn’t known for being a particularly well-off inner suburb.
https://datausa.io/profile/geo/hialeah-fl/

In 2020, Hialeah, FL had a population of 234k people with a median age of 44.3 and a median household income of $38,471. Between 2019 and 2020 the population of Hialeah, FL declined from 234,539 to 233,876, a −0.283% decrease and its median household income grew from $35,068 to $38,471, a 9.7% increase.

You're right: I confused median household income and median income. I still think the comparison holds up -- after all, Trump did improve with less wealthy non-college educated White suburbs as well -- but it does make it less precise.

Tbf though, Cubans have relatively high median incomes for an immigrant group, and as someone pointed out above, might be "practically" considered white in many regards.

The part I find ironic is that they're scared of socialism and authoritarian leader, yet the leader of the Republican party (Trump) has very clearly showed authoritarian tendencies. Yes, on the D side you have folks like AOC but they're not in D leadership.

[Asenath Waite]

The Democrats' relative strength with Cubans was the fleeting thing. Cubans were as strongly Republican as they are now up until 2008, when there was a very sharp swing towards the Democrats. They swung further Democratic in 2012 and even further in 2016 before essentially reverting to 2004 patterns in 2020.

I read an interesting fact recently that the Miami metro area has the highest enrollment rate in the federal health insurance marketplace ("Obamacare") in the country, and that it is frequently marketed, positively, in the Miami area as "Obamacare", even or maybe especially in heavily Republican Cuban areas. (The story was focused on the currently looming enrollment deadline for this year in particular, but also the lasting impact of the ACA in Miami generally.)

I wonder if this doesn't have a surprising amount to do with it, in particular a very strong affection for Obama through his signature healthcare initiative that carried over to the immediately succeeding Democratic candidate but by 2020 when healthcare was no longer near the top of the issues list and Obama had faded somewhat from the front of the public consciousness didn't matter any more, so Cuban voters reverted to their default position.

That and perhaps some of their fondness for Obama faded after he lifted the embargo. I also wonder if maybe a lot of Cuban-Americans had been effected by the housing collapse (given how bad it was in Florida) in 2008 and this led to a temporary swing away from the GOP.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Democrats' relative strength with Cubans was the fleeting thing. Cubans were as strongly Republican as they are now up until 2008, when there was a very sharp swing towards the Democrats. They swung further Democratic in 2012 and even further in 2016 before essentially reverting to 2004 patterns in 2020.

I read an interesting fact recently that the Miami metro area has the highest enrollment rate in the federal health insurance marketplace ("Obamacare") in the country, and that it is frequently marketed, positively, in the Miami area as "Obamacare", even or maybe especially in heavily Republican Cuban areas. (The story was focused on the currently looming enrollment deadline for this year in particular, but also the lasting impact of the ACA in Miami generally.)

I wonder if this doesn't have a surprising amount to do with it, in particular a very strong affection for Obama through his signature healthcare initiative that carried over to the immediately succeeding Democratic candidate but by 2020 when healthcare was no longer near the top of the issues list and Obama had faded somewhat from the front of the public consciousness didn't matter any more, so Cuban voters reverted to their default position.

That and perhaps some of their fondness for Obama faded after he lifted the embargo. I also wonder if maybe a lot of Cuban-Americans had been effected by the housing collapse (given how bad it was in Florida) in 2008 and this led to a temporary swing away from the GOP.

It'd be funny if something like climate change ends up swinging cubans back towards Ds in a few cycles

[MARGINS6729]

Maybe it's worth considering Cubans as a high-income, low college education white ethnic group… put another way: is it really strange that a 78% White, 19% College-educated, higher than national median income suburb like Hialeah would be strongly Republican?

Depends on which sources you use. Hialeah isn’t known for being a particularly well-off inner suburb.
https://datausa.io/profile/geo/hialeah-fl/

In 2020, Hialeah, FL had a population of 234k people with a median age of 44.3 and a median household income of $38,471. Between 2019 and 2020 the population of Hialeah, FL declined from 234,539 to 233,876, a −0.283% decrease and its median household income grew from $35,068 to $38,471, a 9.7% increase.

You're right: I confused median household income and median income. I still think the comparison holds up -- after all, Trump did improve with less wealthy non-college educated White suburbs as well -- but it does make it less precise.

Tbf though, Cubans have relatively high median incomes for an immigrant group, and as someone pointed out above, might be "practically" considered white in many regards.

The part I find ironic is that they're scared of socialism and authoritarian leader, yet the leader of the Republican party (Trump) has very clearly showed authoritarian tendencies. Yes, on the D side you have folks like AOC but they're not in D leadership.

After 2018, the right wing Spanish media worked overtime to tie all the Democrats to the Squad and to socialism- this was amplified by the Venezuelan crisis worsening and Trump's foreign policy moves on it/shift in rhetoric redefining his image. Hispanics down there began to identify Trump and the GOP as imperfect champions against their worst enemy and Democrats as being hijacked by allies of their worst enemy.

[UWS]

The Dem Party's embrace of socialism and the Venezuelan crisis