Get ready for riots. Macron trying to increase pension age in France

[Antonio the Sixth]

The neoliberalism is strong with this thread (and of course now the fish will start telling me that "water" is a meaningless buzzword).

French trade unions have a reputation for neverending strikes, militancy, refusal to compromise and byzantine feuds (Britain has one trade union federation; France has eight). This makes them a darling of leftists, but they forget that only 8% of French workforce are members of a union: literally the lowest percentage anywhere in the EU and lower than even the US. Maybe there's a connection there.

Usually I'm not a fan of union busting, but most of the people who will be marching on the streets against this reform are parasites who don't care about representing workers, only about protecting their sweet little privileges.

Jesus F**king Christ.

You're usually better than this. Please take a second to think through what you're saying.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glad to see French people know better than a bunch of self-proclaimed "populists" and red/green avatars online who talk a big game about being pro-worker except when it actually counts. Macron will probably go full speed ahead anyway, but hopefully we can at least make him pay a political price that will turn him into a lame duck for the rest of his presidency. Of course, it's still an open question if the left will manage to capitalize on what should by every right be a slam dunk for it (especially given that Le Pen - another very sincere and authentic "populist" - is hemming and hawing about this).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Absolutely hilarious that it is LR, the party of shameless unreconstructed Thatcherism (to the point that Pécresse wanted the retirement age to be 65 and accused Macron of plagiarizing her economic program) now is the one pushing to soften this reform. Truly we are through the looking glass.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.ft.com/content/0629e392-5b28-4114-9f52-2a00ed804e47

Macron decides to ignore Parliament. He is the hero who France needs but not what they deserve.

libertarians hating democracy, what else is new

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.ft.com/content/0629e392-5b28-4114-9f52-2a00ed804e47

Macron decides to ignore Parliament. He is the hero who France needs but not what they deserve.

libertarians hating democracy, what else is new

Article 49.3 effectively makes this a confidence vote rather than just bypassing Parliament. This doesn't ignore Parliament's powers; it just forces forces MPs to choose between keeping the current government and blocking this part of its agenda.

In principle, I think it's a good thing this kind of mechanism exists (although there may be a problem with the legal mechanisms surrounding votes of no confidence/Macron threatening to call elections). If governments can't pursue their own key agendas, there are cases where they should give the keys to alternative administrations which can. The Brexit Bill Ballad of Theresa May springs to mind.

What sets the 49.3 process apart from analogous confidence mechanisms found in most parliamentary democracies is that:
1. The bill is presumed to be approved UNLESS a no-confidence motion is introduced and voted by the National Assembly, which, in a very formal sense, does indeed deprive the parliament from the ability to vote for the bill on its merits.
2. The procedure for a no-confidence motion is itself abnormally onerous. It requires an absolute majority of the Assembly's members to vote against the government - essentially allowing the government to go on with the support of a minority as long as enough deputies abstain.

These two factors combined mean the 49.3 isn't just a mere confidence-question process. It's a plain usurpation of the principle that any law must receive the assent of parliament, which has been the foundation of modern democracy in the Western world for two centuries. Sure, you can make democratic arguments for it (especially if you buy into De Gaulle's hyper-personalistic conception of democracy, which is obviously where this all came from), but this is at best a deeply heterodox argument.

At least since 2008 there are limits to uses of the 49.3. Before then, a government could theoretically ram each and every bill through it (and yes, many left-wing governments badly abused this, especially Rocard's). I have to give credit to Sarkozy for putting some restrictions in place, although as we've seen they're still way too lax.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I hope FBM is happy. He burned up all his political capital and broke the country apart even more than it already was, all this for a reform that will bring, what? 5-10 billion over the next decade? Honestly this is the most insulting thing of all - this isn't even some Draconian Austerity sh*t, it's just a minor budgetary adjustment that just happens to be calculate to cause maximum social harm. It's not even the Big Revamp of the pension system he had promised back in 2019 - at least that could have felt worth going all in for. But no, it's just pure pettiness and arrogance. This is what we made, and you're gonna take it, that's it.

So, now f**king what? Our national health system is still on the brink of collapse. Our school system and our judiciary are slowly getting there too. France's domestic energy production is hitting an all-time low at the time we'd need it the most. There's no long-term plan to bring inflation down other than throwing money at it (far more money than the savings from this pension reform, mind you). And France's voice is completely absent from any of the major geopolitical issues of the day. Are we going to do anything about that? No, instead the government is already gearing up to pass yet another immigration crackdown to try to pander to the same voters that always end up voting for the far-right anyway. This is a government on autopilot, always looping through the same two or three old tropes with no sense of direction. Even Sarkozy and Hollande at their nadir were never that out of touch (guess what, having a real party with local infrastructure and not just a gaggle of parliamentary cheerleaders helps with that!). We are completely adrift. Great legacy you're building there, Manu.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The 2022 presidential election was an almost perfect 3-way split between the left, the neoliberal right (Macron+Pécresse) and the nationalist far-right (Le Pen+Zemmour+NDA). This meant that in theory, with the right vote distribution, any of these three factions could have qualified for the runoff. However, Mélenchon is at somewhat of a disadvantage, since many people on the left hate his guts and would probably not vote for him against Macron. So unfortunately Macron probably wins no matter what. There will not be a clear alternative to Macron unless either the left gets its sh*t together and nominates a candidate who isn't hopelessly divisive, or the dam against FN finally breaks and Le Pen actually wins.

[Antonio the Sixth]

...

So, now f**king what? Our national health system is still on the brink of collapse. Our school system and our judiciary are slowly getting there too. ...

All three are going down the tubes at once? What on earth does high tax France (it is high tax isn't it?) spend its money on?

How is the judiciary collapsing? Presumably that is due to non budgetary reasons, whatever the source of the malaise.

A lot of public expense during Macron's presidency has come in the form of various one-time bonuses and rebates of all sorts supposed to deal with the emergencies of the moment (first COVID lockdowns, then high inflation). In part, this is understandable, since those were emergencies that needed to be addressed in some way, but it's come completely at the expense of long-term funding for public utilities. Hell, the government continued to close down hospitals in the middle of the pandemic, and still refuses to hire new personnel to replace those who retire. The health sector is probably the worst off right now, but others are hardly doing better.

As for France's famed "high taxes", it's mostly a myth at this point. The first thing Macron did when he came to power was completely gutting France's progressive tax system, all but abolishing the wealth tax and turning the capital gains tax into a flat tax. Most of France's revenue at this points is generated by regressive taxes like the VAT or flat ones like the social contributions that fund retirement and health care. While, yes, those generate quite a bit of revenue, it's not nearly enough to meet the needs of the French state at this point, and raising them is basically impossible at this point given that they would make inflation worse and hit those already worst off. So Macron's choice is either to tax the rich and undo his own legacy, or just sit and watch as the French public sector slowly collapses onto itself. It's pretty clear what choice he's made.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great legacy you're building there, Manu.

Something has bothered me for a while now: are you binational? Your depth of knowledge of French politics tells your immersion, yet your English displays none of the usual clunky French shibboleths.

I am binational, yes - French and Italian. My English is almost entirely self-taught though - partly thanks to this very site (you can take a look at my very first posts and I think you'll find plenty of the shibboleths you're looking for) and partly form actually having lived in the US for a few years. But no, I'm not a US citizen. Glad my command of English continues to impress, though!