Get ready for riots. Macron trying to increase pension age in France

[Cassius]

The 2022 presidential election was an almost perfect 3-way split between the left, the neoliberal right (Macron+Pécresse) and the nationalist far-right (Le Pen+Zemmour+NDA). This meant that in theory, with the right vote distribution, any of these three factions could have qualified for the runoff. However, Mélenchon is at somewhat of a disadvantage, since many people on the left hate his guts and would probably not vote for him against Macron. So unfortunately Macron probably wins no matter what. There will not be a clear alternative to Macron unless either the left gets its sh*t together and nominates a candidate who isn't extremely divisive, or the dam against FN finally breaks and Le Pen actually wins.

One thing to note is that Le Pens trying to get left wing votes alienates the Zemmour wing who is much more right wing economically . Le pen exceeded her factions vote share in the 2nd round in most areas except very strong Zemmour areas.

That's because Zemmour was only marginally taking from the previous election's Le Pen voters - and mainly in the south. That's what he thought would occur. Instead, his coalition pulled more from LR because he resembled those voters even though he said a bunch of racist stuff. Which is one reason why Ciotti was so brazen during his leadership bid and still won. It seems weird but a large chunk of those Zemmour voters in I-d-F already went Macron in round 2.

I’ve actually met two Zemmour-Macron voters, one of whom phrased his decision to vote Macron in round 2 as being a vote against Le Pen “the socialist”.

[Santander]

The 2022 presidential election was an almost perfect 3-way split between the left, the neoliberal right (Macron+Pécresse) and the nationalist far-right (Le Pen+Zemmour+NDA). This meant that in theory, with the right vote distribution, any of these three factions could have qualified for the runoff. However, Mélenchon is at somewhat of a disadvantage, since many people on the left hate his guts and would probably not vote for him against Macron. So unfortunately Macron probably wins no matter what. There will not be a clear alternative to Macron unless either the left gets its sh*t together and nominates a candidate who isn't extremely divisive, or the dam against FN finally breaks and Le Pen actually wins.

One thing to note is that Le Pens trying to get left wing votes alienates the Zemmour wing who is much more right wing economically . Le pen exceeded her factions vote share in the 2nd round in most areas except very strong Zemmour areas.

That's because Zemmour was only marginally taking from the previous election's Le Pen voters - and mainly in the south. That's what he thought would occur. Instead, his coalition pulled more from LR because he resembled those voters even though he said a bunch of racist stuff. Which is one reason why Ciotti was so brazen during his leadership bid and still won. It seems weird but a large chunk of those Zemmour voters in I-d-F already went Macron in round 2.

I’ve actually met two Zemmour-Macron voters, one of whom phrased his decision to vote Macron in round 2 as being a vote against Le Pen “the socialist”.

A nationalist socialist, even.

[Epaminondas]

A reminder that in France union membership is a lower percentage of the working population than the UK or even the US. On their own, "the unions" can't do all that much.

I believe French union numbership numbers have ebbed and flowed between 7% and 10% since the 90s, mostly concentrated in public education.

Great legacy you're building there, Manu.

Something has bothered me for a while now: are you binational? Your depth of knowledge of French politics tells your immersion, yet your English displays none of the usual clunky French shibboleths.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I am against this entire concept of pensions

We know you are, jaichind; don't worry.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great legacy you're building there, Manu.

Something has bothered me for a while now: are you binational? Your depth of knowledge of French politics tells your immersion, yet your English displays none of the usual clunky French shibboleths.

I am binational, yes - French and Italian. My English is almost entirely self-taught though - partly thanks to this very site (you can take a look at my very first posts and I think you'll find plenty of the shibboleths you're looking for) and partly form actually having lived in the US for a few years. But no, I'm not a US citizen. Glad my command of English continues to impress, though!

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-01/fewer-french-support-protests-against-pension-reform-poll-shows

"Fewer French Support Protests Against Pension Reform, Poll Shows"

Total support and sympathy for protest fell from 62 to 57.  Macron's strategy of just stonewalling and waiting this out is working.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is maybe working until it becomes a live issue again?

[PSOL]

Neither the electoral or established trade union strike will ever reverse austerity, even with total “victory” achieved. Even a Melenchon presidency will just be prevented or coup’d by the army and civil service. Not like that means I won’t continue to support necessary Electoral or strike battles when they arise, but France’s decline as they become increasingly Americanized through intense atomization and existence of a militarized apparatus being all that is left of the state will continue.

[CumbrianLefty]

"Its being so cheerful that keeps me going"