Get ready for riots. Macron trying to increase pension age in France

[lfromnj]

Slighty off topic, but I wonder whether Macron would actually lose if the 2022 election was re-run now?

One thing to note is that Macron made this unpopular policy a campaign promise . I actually respect Macron a lot for doing that. The warnings were clearly there, anyone who cared so much about pensions could have voted for icky Le Pen.

[Sir John Johns]

- that is rejected by a large and growing share of the population as it is perceived as unjust and as disproportionately hurting manual workers and women and is mostly supported by pensioners, i.e. the ones who will not been affected by it.

Again can someone explain how the pension reform hurts women more than it hurts men according to Sir John from above?

Here an article in English summing up the situation:

Currently, pension rights allow women to leave at 62 and receive the full pension rate if they took their full maternity leave.

But Macron’s pension reform will no longer take this maternity leave into account which means mothers will have to wait two more years before retiring.

"There are two conditions for this increase: you must have worked the full 43 years. But 40% of women retire with an incomplete career," said Sophie Binet, Secretary General of CGT Cadres Union, in charge of gender equality.

"The second condition is that this complete career must be full time and 30% of women work part time. So, not many women will receive this pension increase," she told Euronews.

Back in January, the minister for parliamentary relations, Franck Riester, has publicly acknowledged the reform will hurt more the women, contradicting previous statements from the government about how it will on the contrary reduce gender inequality.

This is a key point that has contributed to the massive rejection of the reform: the government has tried to sell it as a ‘measure of justice’, as a progressive change and even as a ‘left-wing reform’ when it is absolutely none of this. Maybe this would have been worked better if clearly assumed as an austerity measure aiming at saving money but instead the government has insisted with its fable of a progressive reform even after been caught lying on the content of the reform several times.

He even admits it hurts manual workers which I guess is correct but most manual workers especially in heavy and dangerous manual work are men. Women might do other stuff like say hotel cleaning which poses much less risk to their body. The only way I can see it hurting women is that on average they will now retire later because they are more likely to enter and graduate from college.

Some highly feminized jobs are particularly exhausting, physically (and sometimes also psychologically) speaking, like home carers, hospital nurses and nursing home employees, all jobs implying difficult schedules and hard work in critically understaffed sectors (because of cuts and disastrous administrative restructuring in public hospitals; because of the greed of private investors in nursing homes – not an exaggeration, there has been a relatively recent scandal about systemic carelessness of residents in the leading company of the sector, Orpea).


Anyway, the pension reform has still a last step (legally speaking, on political and social levels things could still turn badly for Macron and force him to withdraw the reform) to overcome before being enacted: the Constitutional Council. This is not my cup of tea, but it seems there is a large consensus among legal experts that several dispositions of the reform have strong chances of being axed by the Council for being ‘riders’. Even the whole reform could been dismissed by the Constitutional Council due to the ‘unconventional’ way it has been passed but this is not the most likely outcome.

[jaichind]

Slighty off topic, but I wonder whether Macron would actually lose if the 2022 election was re-run now?

One thing to note is that Macron made this unpopular policy a campaign promise . I actually respect Macron a lot for doing that. The warnings were clearly there, anyone who cared so much about pensions could have voted for icky Le Pen.

I was about to make the same comment.  It seems to me if this pension reform was a deal breaker then the French electorate could have just voted for Le Pen who was clearly against this move.  They did not so it seems to me Macron has a mandate to move forward.

[lfromnj]

- that is rejected by a large and growing share of the population as it is perceived as unjust and as disproportionately hurting manual workers and women and is mostly supported by pensioners, i.e. the ones who will not been affected by it.

Again can someone explain how the pension reform hurts women more than it hurts men according to Sir John from above?

Here an article in English summing up the situation:

He even admits it hurts manual workers which I guess is correct but most manual workers especially in heavy and dangerous manual work are men. Women might do other stuff like say hotel cleaning which poses much less risk to their body. The only way I can see it hurting women is that on average they will now retire later because they are more likely to enter and graduate from college.

Some highly feminized jobs are particularly exhausting, physically (and sometimes also psychologically) speaking, like home carers, hospital nurses and nursing home employees, all jobs implying difficult schedules and hard work in critically understaffed sectors (because of cuts and disastrous administrative restructuring in public hospitals; because of the greed of private investors in nursing homes – not an exaggeration, there has been a relatively recent scandal about systemic carelessness of residents in the leading company of the sector, Orpea).

Agree with you on the first point regarding mothers but the fact is that male physical jobs are much more physically demanding jobs than stereotypically female jobs. The supermajority of all workplace deaths are male . Im not denying that those jobs aren't difficult but from a statistical point of view a woman is much less likely to engage in the type of work that requires retirement before normal age.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I hope FBM is happy. He burned up all his political capital and broke the country apart even more than it already was, all this for a reform that will bring, what? 5-10 billion over the next decade? Honestly this is the most insulting thing of all - this isn't even some Draconian Austerity sh*t, it's just a minor budgetary adjustment that just happens to be calculate to cause maximum social harm. It's not even the Big Revamp of the pension system he had promised back in 2019 - at least that could have felt worth going all in for. But no, it's just pure pettiness and arrogance. This is what we made, and you're gonna take it, that's it.

So, now f**king what? Our national health system is still on the brink of collapse. Our school system and our judiciary are slowly getting there too. France's domestic energy production is hitting an all-time low at the time we'd need it the most. There's no long-term plan to bring inflation down other than throwing money at it (far more money than the savings from this pension reform, mind you). And France's voice is completely absent from any of the major geopolitical issues of the day. Are we going to do anything about that? No, instead the government is already gearing up to pass yet another immigration crackdown to try to pander to the same voters that always end up voting for the far-right anyway. This is a government on autopilot, always looping through the same two or three old tropes with no sense of direction. Even Sarkozy and Hollande at their nadir were never that out of touch (guess what, having a real party with local infrastructure and not just a gaggle of parliamentary cheerleaders helps with that!). We are completely adrift. Great legacy you're building there, Manu.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Slighty off topic, but I wonder whether Macron would actually lose if the 2022 election was re-run now?

More likely than not I'm guessing Melenchon gets in second place instead of Le Pen and the general ends up being a tossup. Macron likely wins and benefits from (non-populist) conservatives turning out against Melenchon, while a lot of populist conservatives would stay home.

[Blue3]

Slighty off topic, but I wonder whether Macron would actually lose if the 2022 election was re-run now?

One thing to note is that Macron made this unpopular policy a campaign promise . I actually respect Macron a lot for doing that. The warnings were clearly there, anyone who cared so much about pensions could have voted for icky Le Pen.

I was about to make the same comment.  It seems to me if this pension reform was a deal breaker then the French electorate could have just voted for Le Pen who was clearly against this move.  They did not so it seems to me Macron has a mandate to move forward.

Just because they viewed Le Pen is worse than pension reform, doesn't mean they voted for pension reform, nevermind Macron having a "mandate" for pension reform.

[Oryxslayer]

Slighty off topic, but I wonder whether Macron would actually lose if the 2022 election was re-run now?

One thing to note is that Macron made this unpopular policy a campaign promise . I actually respect Macron a lot for doing that. The warnings were clearly there, anyone who cared so much about pensions could have voted for icky Le Pen.

I was about to make the same comment.  It seems to me if this pension reform was a deal breaker then the French electorate could have just voted for Le Pen who was clearly against this move.  They did not so it seems to me Macron has a mandate to move forward.

Just because they viewed Le Pen is worse than pension reform, doesn't mean they voted for pension reform, nevermind Macron having a "mandate" for pension reform.

That's the beauty of two-round runoff systems,  isn't it wonderful?


France honestly could be a place where adoption of the Alaska runoff system dramatically improves political representation.  Cause right now the system is collapsing towards a South American situation,  which will only fuel chaos long term.

[oldtimer]

Slighty off topic, but I wonder whether Macron would actually lose if the 2022 election was re-run now?

One thing to note is that Macron made this unpopular policy a campaign promise . I actually respect Macron a lot for doing that. The warnings were clearly there, anyone who cared so much about pensions could have voted for icky Le Pen.

I was about to make the same comment.  It seems to me if this pension reform was a deal breaker then the French electorate could have just voted for Le Pen who was clearly against this move.  They did not so it seems to me Macron has a mandate to move forward.

Just because they viewed Le Pen is worse than pension reform, doesn't mean they voted for pension reform, nevermind Macron having a "mandate" for pension reform.

That's the beauty of two-round runoff systems,  isn't it wonderful?


France honestly could be a place where adoption of the Alaska runoff system dramatically improves political representation.  Cause right now the system is collapsing towards a South American situation,  which will only fuel chaos long term.

But a 2 round system is basically the Alaska runoff system, since it has the same aims and results.

[oldtimer]

Slighty off topic, but I wonder whether Macron would actually lose if the 2022 election was re-run now?

One thing to note is that Macron made this unpopular policy a campaign promise . I actually respect Macron a lot for doing that. The warnings were clearly there, anyone who cared so much about pensions could have voted for icky Le Pen.

I was about to make the same comment.  It seems to me if this pension reform was a deal breaker then the French electorate could have just voted for Le Pen who was clearly against this move.  They did not so it seems to me Macron has a mandate to move forward.

Just because they viewed Le Pen is worse than pension reform, doesn't mean they voted for pension reform, nevermind Macron having a "mandate" for pension reform.

It doesn't matter, if you vote against change you get more of the same, they could have easily voted for a left alternative.

The French always moan but they never vote for change and the last time they did a proper armed revolution rather than a armless riot was 1848.

I have no sympathy for a people that always moans but never changes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The 2022 presidential election was an almost perfect 3-way split between the left, the neoliberal right (Macron+Pécresse) and the nationalist far-right (Le Pen+Zemmour+NDA). This meant that in theory, with the right vote distribution, any of these three factions could have qualified for the runoff. However, Mélenchon is at somewhat of a disadvantage, since many people on the left hate his guts and would probably not vote for him against Macron. So unfortunately Macron probably wins no matter what. There will not be a clear alternative to Macron unless either the left gets its sh*t together and nominates a candidate who isn't hopelessly divisive, or the dam against FN finally breaks and Le Pen actually wins.

[lfromnj]

The 2022 presidential election was an almost perfect 3-way split between the left, the neoliberal right (Macron+Pécresse) and the nationalist far-right (Le Pen+Zemmour+NDA). This meant that in theory, with the right vote distribution, any of these three factions could have qualified for the runoff. However, Mélenchon is at somewhat of a disadvantage, since many people on the left hate his guts and would probably not vote for him against Macron. So unfortunately Macron probably wins no matter what. There will not be a clear alternative to Macron unless either the left gets its sh*t together and nominates a candidate who isn't extremely divisive, or the dam against FN finally breaks and Le Pen actually wins.

One thing to note is that Le Pens trying to get left wing votes alienates the Zemmour wing who is much more right wing economically . Le pen exceeded her factions vote share in the 2nd round in most areas except very strong Zemmour areas.

[Santander]

Imagine an axis of Le Pen/Orban/Salvini/Abascal/Trump.

[Torie]

...

So, now f**king what? Our national health system is still on the brink of collapse. Our school system and our judiciary are slowly getting there too. ...

All three are going down the tubes at once? What on earth does high tax France (it is high tax isn't it?) spend its money on?

How is the judiciary collapsing? Presumably that is due to non budgetary reasons, whatever the source of the malaise.

[Oryxslayer]

The 2022 presidential election was an almost perfect 3-way split between the left, the neoliberal right (Macron+Pécresse) and the nationalist far-right (Le Pen+Zemmour+NDA). This meant that in theory, with the right vote distribution, any of these three factions could have qualified for the runoff. However, Mélenchon is at somewhat of a disadvantage, since many people on the left hate his guts and would probably not vote for him against Macron. So unfortunately Macron probably wins no matter what. There will not be a clear alternative to Macron unless either the left gets its sh*t together and nominates a candidate who isn't extremely divisive, or the dam against FN finally breaks and Le Pen actually wins.

One thing to note is that Le Pens trying to get left wing votes alienates the Zemmour wing who is much more right wing economically . Le pen exceeded her factions vote share in the 2nd round in most areas except very strong Zemmour areas.

That's because Zemmour was only marginally taking from the previous election's Le Pen voters - and mainly in the south. That's what he thought would occur. Instead, his coalition pulled more from LR because he resembled those voters even though he said a bunch of racist stuff. Which is one reason why Ciotti was so brazen during his leadership bid and still won. It seems weird but a large chunk of those Zemmour voters in I-d-F already went Macron in round 2.

[CumbrianLefty]

Imagine an axis of Le Pen/Orban/Salvini/Abascal/Trump.

I would rather not, thanks

[Zinneke]

...

So, now f**king what? Our national health system is still on the brink of collapse. Our school system and our judiciary are slowly getting there too. ...

All three are going down the tubes at once? What on earth does high tax France (it is high tax isn't it?) spend its money on?

The same thing a lot of European countries spend too much money on : able bodied old people who could at the very least pay reparations from the externalities they have created. Antonio defends them because they are out on the street now wearing dungarees and act as victims in protests with hammer and sickle banners and megaphones.

I have more time for the youth who hate work and believe we are living in the Bullsh*t Jobs scenario, but fundementally the EU is going to an unproductive, lazy, overregulated, desolated, declining mess if we follow the French model of trying to stop the race to the bottom. I don't see these people actually saying what can make the EU compete against the US and China in the global race? To actually make our jobs more easier and productive? Like less hours, more siestas, acid/speed binges to boost creativity, cutting waste in the public sector? All of them would pout and reject this because they are mentally still teenagers. In the end we will be outgunned by the chinamen slave dystopia model and the vulture Right to Work capitalists in the US, if we want to retain our productivity, we might as well think of some creative solutions to outflank these two economic powers (forget the Russians whose private sector is a joke, Burkina Faso with nukes). No Union is brave enough in Europe to look at this issue from a global perspective, because for traditional ideological reasons many of them are borderline tankies who think Xi Jingping is some sort of working class hero.

Macron blew this because it has become a political crisis due to his insistence on rushing the policy through rather than letting the Assembly debate it endlessly, and more importantly, as with many things in his Presidency, he didn't make it a Eurozone issue which is what it is. He needs to come out right now and call a press conference calling for a Europe-wide debate on a minimum pension age, and a boost in productivity fund. If he had made this a European debate the opposition voices would have been outflanked by the fact that France has such a low retirement age compared to others and resorted to attacking the EU, which French people don't seriously want to leave other than the cranks. Make it an EU issue and he would have actually benefited.

Macron is an extreme centrist. His electorate are extremists. They are not compromisers, it's why he couldn't form a coalition government. They cherry pick democratic norms the same way a Le Pen or Mélenchon would cherry pick democratic norms. Presidents in the past used 49.3 after significant legislative debate and the fact that the text was usually insanely long. Macron did it this in a rushed manner because he has no time for the legislative process or democratic scrutiny.

How is the judiciary collapsing? Presumably that is due to non budgetary reasons, whatever the source of the malaise.

The French police basically blackmail the government to siphon justice resources to help them get shiny new gear to tear gas teenagers while claiming to fight the "zones de non-droit" that they just keep as it is

The justice system in France is extremely underfunded in parts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

...

So, now f**king what? Our national health system is still on the brink of collapse. Our school system and our judiciary are slowly getting there too. ...

All three are going down the tubes at once? What on earth does high tax France (it is high tax isn't it?) spend its money on?

How is the judiciary collapsing? Presumably that is due to non budgetary reasons, whatever the source of the malaise.

A lot of public expense during Macron's presidency has come in the form of various one-time bonuses and rebates of all sorts supposed to deal with the emergencies of the moment (first COVID lockdowns, then high inflation). In part, this is understandable, since those were emergencies that needed to be addressed in some way, but it's come completely at the expense of long-term funding for public utilities. Hell, the government continued to close down hospitals in the middle of the pandemic, and still refuses to hire new personnel to replace those who retire. The health sector is probably the worst off right now, but others are hardly doing better.

As for France's famed "high taxes", it's mostly a myth at this point. The first thing Macron did when he came to power was completely gutting France's progressive tax system, all but abolishing the wealth tax and turning the capital gains tax into a flat tax. Most of France's revenue at this points is generated by regressive taxes like the VAT or flat ones like the social contributions that fund retirement and health care. While, yes, those generate quite a bit of revenue, it's not nearly enough to meet the needs of the French state at this point, and raising them is basically impossible at this point given that they would make inflation worse and hit those already worst off. So Macron's choice is either to tax the rich and undo his own legacy, or just sit and watch as the French public sector slowly collapses onto itself. It's pretty clear what choice he's made.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The phrase that keeps coming to mind with regards to Flawless Beautiful Macron is "Woke Pinochet". "Vote for me because the alternative is the scary authoritarian right. Also, I'm going to use this One Neat Constitutional Trick to force through a calculatedly regressive pension 'reform' that the country hates without any parliamentary scrutiny. Remember to vote LREM to stop the parafascists!"

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The phrase that keeps coming to mind with regards to Flawless Beautiful Macron is "Woke Pinochet". "Vote for me because the alternative is the scary authoritarian right. Also, I'm going to use this One Neat Constitutional Trick to force through a calculatedly regressive pension 'reform' that the country hates without any parliamentary scrutiny. Remember to vote LREM to stop the parafascists!"

Macron has to be fascist you see or else the fascists win.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The phrase that keeps coming to mind with regards to Flawless Beautiful Macron is "Woke Pinochet". "Vote for me because the alternative is the scary authoritarian right. Also, I'm going to use this One Neat Constitutional Trick to force through a calculatedly regressive pension 'reform' that the country hates without any parliamentary scrutiny. Remember to vote LREM to stop the parafascists!"

You can call Macron authoritarian sure, but comparing using a dodgy procedural trick to a two decade fascist dictatorship is... a choice.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The phrase that keeps coming to mind with regards to Flawless Beautiful Macron is "Woke Pinochet". "Vote for me because the alternative is the scary authoritarian right. Also, I'm going to use this One Neat Constitutional Trick to force through a calculatedly regressive pension 'reform' that the country hates without any parliamentary scrutiny. Remember to vote LREM to stop the parafascists!"

You can call Macron authoritarian sure, but comparing using a dodgy procedural trick to a two decade fascist dictatorship is... a choice.

I mean the comparison isn't really serious; I tend not to use "woke" unironically either. If you think it's in poor taste, sure, I'll concede that it probably is.

[Make Canada Boring Again]

Absolutely ridiculous that French labour unions are shutting down entire sectors of the economy via strike action including much of the taxpayer-funded public sector (schools, transport, utilities) with protesters blocking fuel deliveries over a pension reform that would be accepted relatively nonchalantly in most developed countries. 64 is still below the retirement age in most of the developed world, while France has a life expectancy of 83. Labour unions should never have the power to indefinitely shut down the economy and taxpayer-funded government services not even over a labour contract but a decision by a democratically elected government. Changing the retirement age is like any government policy in a democracy, some can agree, others disagree, those who disagree can protest but they can't shut down government services indefinitely and block fuel deliveries. Absurd and unacceptable.

[jaichind]

If I understand correctly, France's retirement age was 65 before 1983 and only Mitterrand changed it to 60.  So it seems the last 40 years have been mostly about how to reverse this lousy move by Mitterrand step by step.  I am against this entire concept of pensions but if there is going to be one it seems to me retirement age should be linked to life expectancy just like all sorts of various government benefits and tax thresholds should be linked to inflation.

[CumbrianLefty]

A reminder that in France union membership is a lower percentage of the working population than the UK or even the US. On their own, "the unions" can't do all that much.