MO-SEN 2024: Kunce joins the race

[Health Over Wealth]

State Senator Karla May is in.

Another Democrat is planning to jump into the race to unseat U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley.

State Sen. Karla May, D-St. Louis, told the Mound City Bar Association over the weekend she will run for the U.S. Senate next year. May told St. Louis Public Radio that she would speak to the press about her political future later this week.

May has represented portions of St. Louis and St. Louis County in the Missouri Senate since 2019. Before that, she served for eight years in the state House.

Since joining the Senate, May has played a role in crafting legislation dealing with criminal justice issues. She’s also a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, which is partly responsible for crafting Missouri’s budget.

For a seat where Democrats have almost no chance of winning, this is honestly a pretty strong field to take on Josh Hawley. Other than December Harmon, I don't see a weak candidate here.

It's refreshing when Democrats have a competitive primary for state offices at all.

[MarkD]

Karla May's Electoral History.

The first time she ran for a seat in the state legislature, she ran in 2006 in what was then District 57, but she came in last place in a three-way race, garnering only 26.69% of the Democratic primary vote.
But she tried again for Dist. 57, in 2010, and she narrowly won the D primary: 1,386 votes (50.60%) for her and 1,353 (49.40%) for her only opponent. Of course, there wasn't a Republican candidate in the general election.
Two years later, the district was renumbered as the 84th. She ended up having two opponents in the primary, but she won with 44.12% out of 5,599 votes cast. Again, no opponent in the general election.
In both 2014 and 2016, she ran for her third and fourth terms, respectively, against no opponents in either the primary or general election.
Term limited in 2018, she decided to run for Senate District 4. That district had previously been Lacy Clay's, during the 1990s. But after the 2001 redistricting, it was no longer predominantly black, and the incumbent Democratic Senator in 2018, Jacob Hummel, was white. But she ran anyway -- most if not all of Dist. 84 was in the northern part of the senate district, and that region had the highest percentage of black population. She easily beat Hummel 20,303 (57.20%) to 15,189 (42.80%). Then for the general election, she easily trounced her Republican opponent by 56,883 (77.07%) to 16,927 (22.93%).
Last year, she was unopposed in the primary, and she again easily beat her next Republican opponent, 51,419 (74.17%) to 17,906 (25.83%). (Redistricting had moved the 4th District further into St. Louis County, and she had less of the city under the new boundaries. Both the city and county portions of the district were predominantly white, and the racial makeup of the new district was only 16% black.)

[MarkD]

An independent candidate has joined the race for November: Jared Young.
https://votejaredyoung.com/
He is not a native Missourian, but he moved to Joplin eight years ago.
I like his emphasis on moderation, being near the middle of the road, so I endorse him. I wish I still lived in MO. I know, realistically, he has virtually no chance to get any more than 5% of the vote, but nevertheless, I feel he and I are pretty close ideologically. I will try to find out more about his views on Supreme Court appointments.

[Dave Hedgehog]

State Senator Karla May is in.

Another Democrat is planning to jump into the race to unseat U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley.

State Sen. Karla May, D-St. Louis, told the Mound City Bar Association over the weekend she will run for the U.S. Senate next year. May told St. Louis Public Radio that she would speak to the press about her political future later this week.

May has represented portions of St. Louis and St. Louis County in the Missouri Senate since 2019. Before that, she served for eight years in the state House.

Since joining the Senate, May has played a role in crafting legislation dealing with criminal justice issues. She’s also a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, which is partly responsible for crafting Missouri’s budget.

For a seat where Democrats have almost no chance of winning, this is honestly a pretty strong field to take on Josh Hawley. Other than December Harmon, I don't see a weak candidate here.

Anyone who has a first name like “December” hasn’t got the faintest bit of hope of being remotely competitive in a statewide race here. (Unless of course, they have the magic (R) next to their name.)

Arguably by going along with Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen, Hawley is doing a stellar job of representing the interests/wishes of his constituents who voted for Trump by 15 points. Why would they care about any of that if they heavily wanted Trump to be re-elected in the first place? Inescapable Safe R race under any circumstances.

[MarkD]

~~~~~

Anyone who has a first name like “December” hasn’t got the faintest bit of hope of being remotely competitive in a statewide race here. (Unless of course, they have the magic (R) next to their name.)

Arguably by going along with Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen, Hawley is doing a stellar job of representing the interests/wishes of his constituents who voted for Trump by 15 points. Why would they care about any of that if they heavily wanted Trump to be re-elected in the first place? Inescapable Safe R race under any circumstances.

But,

Don't forget one of the most important events of Bell's reign as P.A. was that he spent five months re-investigating the case of Officer Wilson shooting Michael Brown, but that he still ending up coming to the conclusion that there was not enough evidence to charge Officer Wilson with any crime. Is that going to be brought up during the primary campaign next year? Is that info going to help or hurt Bell win votes in the Democratic primary?

It would definitely be an albatross if he were facing a black opponent, but Kunce, can't really bring it up in the primary without looking like he's pandering.

Since Bell himself is Black, it could leave him open to charges of being a race traitor from someone like a Cori Bush (or someone of her ilk), either in the primary, or just in general.

Since December Harmon is a black woman who holds a position on the Columbia Police Review Board, I can see her getting a lot of attention if she goes after Bell for his decision to not indict Officer Wilson. If she uses that strategy, she might do better than just get in the single digits.

[reagente]

Wesley Bell is out and is now primarying Cori Bush in MO-1 instead:

https://twitter.com/MarkMaxwellTV/status/1719022151083200904

Good news for Karla May in the primary.

[MarkD]

Hawley has not filed to run yet, and neither have any other Republicans. Hawley appears to be reasonably confident he won't be challenged in the primary. (The Republicans have spirited primary contests for all five of the state executive offices, but not the US Senate.)

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Didn't want to create a new thread for this but this popped up on my feed:

https://twitter.com/LoneStarLeft/status/1813432696250482742

https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1813262672663638053

So far just rumors but will be interesting if there's receipts. Even if it's true, doubt it leads to any resignations/shakeups in the current environment, but worth keeping tabs on.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Didn't want to create a new thread for this but this popped up on my feed:

https://twitter.com/LoneStarLeft/status/1813432696250482742

https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1813262672663638053

So far just rumors but will be interesting if there's receipts. Even if it's true, doubt it leads to any resignations/shakeups in the current environment, but worth keeping tabs on.

Funny as this would be, I'm going to see this from a source more credible than the Daily Mail, and preferably one that doesn't cite the Daily Mail as its source, before I believe this.

[MarkD]

I've been seeing a few campaign signs Karla May for the last few days, but it's obviously too little, too late. I think it's likely she'll win the city of St. Louis, and maybe even the county too, but Kunce will swamp her statewide.

[Conservatopia]

There's Kunce in every election.

[These birds not meant to fly alone]

https://twitter.com/LucasKunceMO/status/1823753855860875739

Reaaaaaaally good ad from Kunce here. Painting himself as the family values candidate against Hawley is a brilliant move. I really wish he stood a chance against Hawley, because he would make an incredible Senator.

[MarkD]

I think if he were to actually beat Hawley, a Sen. Lucas Kunce would just be a typical partisan hack. I'm backing Jared Young, Independent.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If only we could go back to 2012 levels of polarization Kunce would have a real shot or even be favored. Sadly I think MO is just too red and polarized at this point, but he probably outruns the top of the tickets and could hold it to high single digits.

Really sad because he would be a great Senator.

[Mr. Smith]

This might be the tipping point now.

[TuberMan]

Former Senator and Missouri AG John Danforth has endorsed third-party candidate Jared Young over Hawley or Kunce.

https://twitter.com/jrosenbaum/status/1829005626028011841?s=46

[MarkD]

Former Senator and Missouri AG John Danforth has endorsed third-party candidate Jared Young over Hawley or Kunce.

https://twitter.com/jrosenbaum/status/1829005626028011841?s=46

Yippee!!

[MarkD]

(To borrow a phrase from BRTD) Does it blow your mind that Karla May performed WORSE in her own state Senate District than the statewide average?
Statewide: Lucas Kunce: 67.64%
State Senator Karla May: 23.25%

State Senate District 4 (appr. 40% of the city of St. Louis and 7 suburban cities)
Lucas Kunce: 71.87%
Karla May: 20.53%

Meanwhile, in adjacent Senate District 5 (appr. 60% of the city of St Louis)
Lucas Kunce: 43.73%
Karla May: 45.62%

[MarkD]

(To borrow a phrase from BRTD) Does it blow your mind that Karla May performed WORSE in her own state Senate District than the statewide average?
Statewide: Lucas Kunce: 67.64%
State Senator Karla May: 23.25%

State Senate District 4 (appr. 40% of the city of St. Louis and 7 suburban cities)
Lucas Kunce: 71.87%
Karla May: 20.53%

Meanwhile, in adjacent Senate District 5 (appr. 60% of the city of St Louis)
Lucas Kunce: 43.73%
Karla May: 45.62%

And, btw, Kunce also beat Karla May in Senate Districts 13 and 14, both predominantly black and located in the northern part of St. Louis County. She was much closely competitive with him in those two districts, he didn't win by anything like a two-to-one margin or more, but he clearly did win by a comfortable margin.

[JGibson]

Josh Hawley has a couple of anti-trans ads in rotation attacking Lucas Kunce:
An ad falsely calling the rise in trans youths a "social contagion" in an anti-gender-affirming care ad.

Another ad featuring anti-trans demagogue and 5th Place Crybaby Riley Gaines in an ad opposing trans women in women's sports.

Just reeks of desperation by Hawley.

[Trends Are Fake]

This might be the tipping point now.

45+ day old post but MO's very obviously Seat 46 for Rs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This might be the tipping point now.

45+ day old post but MO's very obviously Seat 46 for Rs.

Yeah don't see any scenario where this is the tipping point. Unless it comes Sherrod Brown is a murderer or something both TX and OH Sen should go Dem well before MO-Sen.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/ArtCandee/status/1852152420920410386

Damn, do we have an upset brewing? Hawley looks like such a dweeb and prick at the same time.

There are a lot of clips out there of Kunce eviscerating Hawley.

[7,052,770]

Here's the whole thing if you don't want clips. Hawley is a profoundly off-putting persona.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ArtCandee/status/1852152420920410386

Damn, do we have an upset brewing? Hawley looks like such a dweeb and prick at the same time.

There are a lot of clips out there of Kunce eviscerating Hawley.

That was good, but Hawley isn't losing. Maybe Kunce could overperform a la Jason Kander at best.